VIX UP!VIX - Looks like a bottom has formed... Compared to last run up in late January 2021.
Big Wave E UP on deck per my count.
Not financial advice.
VXZ trade ideas
Vol lower...still contangoStill a contango market.
Growth up...vol down = long SPY etc.
You really need a news event to kick off a reversal spike otherwise roll premium is a killer.
LONGThe VXX is at all time low we expect a strong rise today or next week very nice position to buy.
RSI on all timeframes strongly oversold.
VXX/VIX upside theoryClean chart.
No lines, no mess here, just a simple concept.
If a VXX/VIX at this low, with an up-trending volume doesn't make you uneasy.. I don't know what to tell ya..
Market optimism is a wonderful thing and personally I love the days more when I have a bullish attitude (because who wouldn't want to support the economic success of everyone?), but I also acknowledge that some people (*cough* market makers *cough*) make the largest profit my fleecing the doe-eyed.
"to the moon" "4k spx at least!" and this dangerously low VXX/VIX, as well as (way too easy) accessibility to options as a trading instrument for many unqualified retail traders. We have people overleveraging with little-to-no market education. I just see this equation leading to some people's first time experience with a rug pull.
Whether you use this as a long strategy, a hedge, or just as another indicator towards market sentiment - just keep your eye on it.
Roll premium takes its toll!Backwardation times the spikes..
Contango is a killer!
No "Hodling" here!
Using VXX as VIX alternative with good P/L
Yesterday I've played an alternative VIX instrument.
I've tired to searching good ROI or P/L rates at VIX $20 VIX support, so I've searched some alternative, but VIX related instrument.
Lets see what can give us this BARCLAYS BANK VIX Short ETN (=VXX)
(1) Yearly support + incoming buy volume
The lowerst value of the previous year was $13.
In the past month significant buy volume arrieved.
Combined this two reason could lead into sidewalking or bounceback from this level.
VXX is a Trust, so we see volume displayed (unlinke in the case of the VIX)
(2) VIX play ROI vs VXX ROI
You could see VXX like an ETN alternatative of the VIX.
Same dates for big edges, and melting down between the big edges.
Compared this two instument's ROI: the conclusion is obvious.
VXX ROI at support $13 for April with vertical spread: 37/63 = 58%
VIX ROI at support $20 for April with vertical spread: 20/80 = 25%
CONCLUSION
I'm buying a few call spreads for April, because the IVR not so high.
I think this is a very good P/L rate with a very high probability of profit!
Target: ............. 52% Max profit: ...... $111 Max loss: ......... $189 IVR: ................... 20 POP: .................. 65% Expiry: .............. 44days
Strategy: long call vertical spread (average IVR)
Sell 3 VXX April 16' $13 call Buy 3 VXX April 16' $12 call
Stop: Closing immediately if daily candle is closing below $13.
Take profit strategy: I'm taking at the 65% of max.profit in this case.
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OPENING: VXX MARCH 19TH 13/16 LONG CALL VERTICAL... for a 1.50 debit/contract.
Notes: With VIX at lows, opening a small risk one to make one bullish assumption trade in VXX with a 14.50 break even.
I generally don't like to take bullish assumption shots in volatility products, particularly ones like VXX and UVXY that experience contango erosion over time, implying that you're rowing against the tide with any bullish assumption directional shot. Looking to get .75 out of this if the opportunity presents itself.
about to explode to the moon ..........VXX .... falling wedge about to finish then bulish cycle wave up
DJP monthly - trending is turning upDoubleLine Gundlach said this year is the year of commodities. I took a look at DJP it indeed looks very attractive. RSI is above 50, MACD is positive and price is above 10 month MA and the MA itself is flat to turning up! I think it is a buy if it can close above $25.50 on a monthly basis.
VXX about to popUS dollar index is rising overnight. S&P was rejected at 3800 and on the way down since, futures see m to confirm the trend.
VVX has been looking for a bottom, while stock squeezes in GME and AMC could catalyze further volatility. Large scale rotation out of tech stocks will add to the volatility, especially if the recent uptick was a bull trap.
Yesterday's rise was accompanied by a drop in short term interest rates, and a turnaround in the trend of the dollar index. Chicken or egg?
VXX Showing Indices Are Likely To Head HigherVXX tried to push up for the 4th time on March 4th and put in a climax buy bar.
Price broke below that climax buy bar yesterday and now price is set to head
lower. Looks like it might go and try to test the low of January and February
of last year around 13.75.
This is good news for the indices as prices are more likely to head higher.
Also, just read that a Deutsche Bank survey said that 25-34 year olds will be
spending HALF of their new stimulus checks on stocks. Other age groups said
they would allocate 35-45% of their check on stocks.
Looks like we're going higher at the moment. New bars on the chart can change that
probability so we'll see.
Roll premium ... No HODL'ingBe aware of the cost of roll premium...HODL doesn't apply!
In this game its about 'timing the market', not 'time in the market'
VXX TradingAs VIX is starting to set up a triangle pattern, We can think that it could explode because market uncertainty. For that reason I invest in long VXX.
Feb Hedge: VXX Puts - 19 Feb expiryFebruary's Hedge Trade
This trade hedges TOL my secondary trade which is riskier as it was strategically structured to be the opposite of the border market movement. Hence if PG surges this should mitigate the loss.
It is 15% of the premium from Feb's Primary and Secondary trade. If things go well I should not need to cash this at all.
Bought 10 Puts @ 1, Strike 15
It requires an est -14% drop to reach the strike
VXX - Little More Red in the MarketsTook a small profit on the VXX this morning after spotting hidden bullish divergence in the VIX yesterday evening. Opened a small position again on the pullback to support in anticipation of a small bounce the upper trendline of this descending sedge pattern. Holding off on opening long positions until this burns out tomorrow AM. LONG VXX SHORT market.
VXX back to January 2020 levelsJust an update on how the VXX has slowly worked its way down and is now back to the same levels as January 2020.
If you look at the RSI levels, the is a higher low pattern that emerges before a spike. It looks like the same thing is starting to appear again.
VOLATILITY TIME TO GO LONG CHART POSTED IS A SIGNAL SETUP FOR A RUN UP IN VOL LOOK FOR A VERY FAST RALLY
VXX $16.25 / TIME FOR MARKET CORRECTION PROTECTION0. Notes to follow;
1. Time for correction protection, if you are leveraged, or can't for whatever reason handle a 10 to 20 percent back draft;
2. More notes after close;
VXX Long In downtrend Wedge,
at support line.
Prepare for SPY Gap Down.
Entry 16.5
Stop 13
Target 40
I created a tool "MM_SMA_Swing" to draw swing in tradingview chart.
Each swing must cross SMA50.
This tool could help to draw trendline, and ignore the noise.
I am not a PRO trader. I trade option to test my trading plan with small cost.
The max Risk of each plan is less than 1% of my account.
If you like this idea, please use SIM/Demo account to try it.
