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XHB trade ideas

US Home Builders to hold 200-day moving average.XHB may come down to the 200-day simple moving average (yellow line) and wick below but I think the next 8W candle will be green. I think market sentiment is overly negative. Expectations for inflation is as high as in Q4 2022 when inflation was very high in the US. If the interest rates, go up further then this will finally harm employment levels and reduce profits which will lower US tax receipts. Based on that, the FED will need to hold interest rates or not raise them much more and this will be supportive in the short run for the market to go higher in the end of the year. I expect the market is going to find a top and then as unemployment rises, we are going to see short term interest rates come down and for the market to have a capitulation event in 2024. If that is likely, then those that want to support the incumbent president will want that crash to happen early enough that there can be an end of year rally for 2024 ahead of the presidential election. There needs to be headlines saying the recession is over.
AMEX:XHB
by Abzorba
Macro Monday 3 - SPDR Homebuilders XHBMacro Monday SPDR Home builders ETF (XHB) This equal weighted index tracks 35 holdings of the homebuilders segment of the S&P Total Market Index (TMI) and is spread across large, mid and small cap stocks. These comprise of the Homebuilding sub-industry, and may include exposure to the Building Products, Home Furnishings, Home Improvement Retail, Home furnishing Retail, and Household Appliances sub-industries. The Chart - AMEX:XHB The Chart can be used as a leading indicator for the US housing market as the stocks in the XHB comprise of companies that provide the materials and products to build new houses and renovate homes. These products are higher up the supply chain and sold before construction commences or during. In the past the XHB chart provided a significant advance warning of the 2007 Great Financial Crisis which is illustrated in red on the chart. A similar negative divergence would be worth watching out for in the future. At present the performance of XHB is ahead of the S&P500. XHB is 5% from ATH’s at $87.00. This is in keeping with how this chart leads the market as it includes products and materials required for new builds and renovations. I would expect some resistance at the ATH which could act as a decision point for price. A break above the ATH with support established on it would be positive for price. A rejection off the ATH or a false break out and we would need to monitor price closely to see can price find support on the 10 Month SMA. If a lower high occurs on XHB (like in 2007), this could be an early warning signal of downward price pressure to follow on the S&P500. As noted on the chart the average performance post MACD cross is a price increase of 80%; - We are currently at $83.50 which is a price increase of 21% from the recent MACD cross. - A revisit of the ATH at $87.00 would be a price increase of 26% from the recent MACD cross. - An 80% average increase would lead us to the top of the parallel channel (see chart). - None of the above percentages are guarantees, we are just looking at probabilities. Factoring in that we are above the 10 month moving average and that it is sloping upwards, I remain positive about the continued performance of XHB, although I would not be surprised to see resistance at the ATH of $87.00 and a pull back to the 10 month SMA would be standard. If a weekly candle closed below the 10 month SMA, this is where I would start to get concerned and would then start to lean bearish. If we got follow through lower after that point, this would be alarm bells for me. We can draw a correlation here to the first Macro Monday chart I shared on July 3rd, the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index DJ:DJT which also established a lower high as the S&P500 CBOE:SPX continued its ascent. Both the XHB and the DJT demonstrated they can be leading economic indicators by establishing lower highs prior to the 2007 Great Financial Crisis. PUKA
Editors' picks
AMEX:XHB
by PukaCharts
22
XHB on a bullish move. Will this signal homebuyer confidence?I wanted to touch base on the Homebuilders ETF, which I analyzed back on Jan 20, 2023 On jan 20, price broke out of its side-ways range finding support on the VAH and at the time of writing, testing the weekly of 69.65 as support. Based on my Fib time levels, I am expecting a significant move around Feb 22, 2023. If XHB plans on higher targets, I would like to aim for the next weekly level of 86.12 I found this very interesting as when I did my initial analysis in Jan, a few weeks late the News made an announcement on the homebuilder's trust and how it is on a bullish move. Guess the "News" doesn't really give anything new when the Charts are King :) With the Homebuilders ETF increasing in price, this may signal a bullish housing market as this is a signal of increased homebuilder confidence. Which also means we are seeing a higher demand for homes! Although Crypto is my primary focus, I still like to analyze all markets! If you think you've gotten awesome content from my TA, please smash that like (boost) button! It keeps me motivated to continue hitting the charts for y'all!! Please send me requests on any chart you would like me to see! I'd be more than happy to take a look! <3333
AMEX:XHBLong
by marktiu
2
SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB) at risk of bearish reversalAMEX:XHB US housing market, a key contributor to US economic growth via the wealth effect that will trickle down to consumer spending & confidence. We can decipher its impact on the overall stock mkt via sentiment/technical analysis on2/2 The recent rally of the $XHB from 19 Oct 22 low to 22 Nov 22 has been accompanied by declining volume & underperformance against the SP 500 ETF $SPY Looks like up move has hit an inflection zone for a potential bearish reversal below 64.40 key MT pivotal resistance. $XHB 2/2 The recent rally of the $XHB from 19 Oct 22 low to 22 Nov 22 has been accompanied by declining volume & underperformance against the SP 500 ETF $SPY Looks like up move has hit an inflection zone for a potential bearish reversal below 64.40 key MT pivotal resistance.
AMEX:XHBShort
by Kelvin-Wong
XHB ! US housing market Burst- Upcoming Recession-BTC 100K+I'm looking at XHB weekly timeframe and comparing 2006-2009 US housing market with current situation. On 17 July 2006 XHB bounced 38% then dumped and lost previous swing low/ key support /28-30$ level/ on 23 July 2007/371 days/. When XHB lost key support SPX made first top and second top was 3 months later with bearish divergence, after which S&P dumped 57% and stayed in a bear market 511-595 days. After the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble US great recession started from December 2007 to June 2009. XHB dumped 73% and bottomed at 8$ in 2009. I think the current situation is the same and the same scenario will play out if XHB loses previous swing low and key support/50-52$/. It has already dumped and lost key trendline 60-61$ then pumped 32%. I putted alarm at 50-52$ zone and waiting for break down in coming months, I history repeats the same way, XHB will break down in Q2-2023 /approximately in April-June 2023/ and 140 days later a big recession starts. I think at the same time SPX and BTC will top as well. But before that my best case and most bullish scenario for BTC is new ATH and even 120-145K top target. I'm sure BTC has already topped at 17.5K on 18.06.2022 based on my analysis. You can check them looking at bellow attached files. Later I will post my other scenarios for BTC.
AMEX:XHBLong
by ergal91