$XHB - ShortSimilar to AMEX:SRS which is a short against real estate, AMEX:XHB is the home builders index. We again see a revesal candle into the prior qrtrs mother bar, if it closes inside the mother bar, a strong top signal is created.
XHB trade ideas
Home building Will it continue or start decliningThis could be a leading indicator for what is to come. Let's keep an eye on it.
We do have a bearish divergence on the monthly RSI. It also is happening on the weekly as well.
It is to early to tell what direction it will go. We should expect a strong bounce from here and see where it goes.
Best regards.
Shorting Homebuilders ETFIf you look at the Building Permits Leading Indicator, new permits have been decreasing since January 2022. Housing Starts will confirm the same... New Home Sales have decreased since 2020... Building Permits usually lead Housing Completion by 8-16 months...
Additionally Interest Rates have nearly peaked, this will also slow down Developer Sentiment and Home Buyer Demand.
AMEX:XHB
XHB short 83.80Look daily stoch
Look vol lots selling
Weekly not looking good
Housing and commercial real estate going collapse here and china
US Home Builders to hold 200-day moving average.XHB may come down to the 200-day simple moving average (yellow line) and wick below but I think the next 8W candle will be green.
I think market sentiment is overly negative. Expectations for inflation is as high as in Q4 2022 when inflation was very high in the US. If the interest rates, go up further then this will finally harm employment levels and reduce profits which will lower US tax receipts. Based on that, the FED will need to hold interest rates or not raise them much more and this will be supportive in the short run for the market to go higher in the end of the year. I expect the market is going to find a top and then as unemployment rises, we are going to see short term interest rates come down and for the market to have a capitulation event in 2024. If that is likely, then those that want to support the incumbent president will want that crash to happen early enough that there can be an end of year rally for 2024 ahead of the presidential election. There needs to be headlines saying the recession is over.
Macro Monday 3 - SPDR Homebuilders XHBMacro Monday
SPDR Home builders ETF (XHB)
This equal weighted index tracks 35 holdings of the homebuilders segment of the S&P Total Market Index (TMI) and is spread across large, mid and small cap stocks.
These comprise of the Homebuilding sub-industry, and may include exposure to the Building Products, Home Furnishings, Home Improvement Retail, Home furnishing Retail, and Household Appliances sub-industries.
The Chart - AMEX:XHB
The Chart can be used as a leading indicator for the US housing market as the stocks in the XHB comprise of companies that provide the materials and products to build new houses and renovate homes. These products are higher up the supply chain and sold before construction commences or during.
In the past the XHB chart provided a significant advance warning of the 2007 Great Financial Crisis which is illustrated in red on the chart. A similar negative divergence would be worth watching out for in the future.
At present the performance of XHB is ahead of the S&P500. XHB is 5% from ATH’s at $87.00. This is in keeping with how this chart leads the market as it includes products and materials required for new builds and renovations. I would expect some resistance at the ATH which could act as a decision point for price. A break above the ATH with support established on it would be positive for price. A rejection off the ATH or a false break out and we would need to monitor price closely to see can price find support on the 10 Month SMA. If a lower high occurs on XHB (like in 2007), this could be an early warning signal of downward price pressure to follow on the S&P500.
As noted on the chart the average performance post MACD cross is a price increase of 80%;
- We are currently at $83.50 which is a price increase
of 21% from the recent MACD cross.
- A revisit of the ATH at $87.00 would be a price
increase of 26% from the recent MACD cross.
- An 80% average increase would lead us to the top
of the parallel channel (see chart).
- None of the above percentages are guarantees, we
are just looking at probabilities.
Factoring in that we are above the 10 month moving average and that it is sloping upwards, I remain positive about the continued performance of XHB, although I would not be surprised to see resistance at the ATH of $87.00 and a pull back to the 10 month SMA would be standard. If a weekly candle closed below the 10 month SMA, this is where I would start to get concerned and would then start to lean bearish. If we got follow through lower after that point, this would be alarm bells for me.
We can draw a correlation here to the first Macro Monday chart I shared on July 3rd, the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index DJ:DJT which also established a lower high as the S&P500 CBOE:SPX continued its ascent. Both the XHB and the DJT demonstrated they can be leading economic indicators by establishing lower highs prior to the 2007 Great Financial Crisis.
PUKA
XHB on a bullish move. Will this signal homebuyer confidence?I wanted to touch base on the Homebuilders ETF, which I analyzed back on Jan 20, 2023
On jan 20, price broke out of its side-ways range finding support on the VAH and at the time of writing, testing the weekly of 69.65 as support.
Based on my Fib time levels, I am expecting a significant move around Feb 22, 2023.
If XHB plans on higher targets, I would like to aim for the next weekly level of 86.12
I found this very interesting as when I did my initial analysis in Jan, a few weeks late the News made an announcement on the homebuilder's trust and how it is on a bullish move.
Guess the "News" doesn't really give anything new when the Charts are King :)
With the Homebuilders ETF increasing in price, this may signal a bullish housing market as this is a signal of increased homebuilder confidence.
Which also means we are seeing a higher demand for homes!
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XHB H2 2023, 3d chartWatch XHB here.
Reaching recent top, and looking too weak for much higher, if at all.
That 77 pivot needs to be retested soon. Liquidity is to the downside.
HD reports this week and will set the tone for this etf coming up.
Short home buildersI'm surprised to see such resilience in the RE market. As an investment banker in the field, I can tell you that things are turning sour really quickly. Banks are closed and projects are increasingly hard to sell without massive discounts as buyers try to cope with increased financing costs. Many developers will go bust in the coming quarters due to high leverage ratios led by a decade of greed and low rates. It's gonna be ugly. Incredible short opportunity
Still bearish til april Big volatility next Tuesday, use it for trade setups.
keep your options expiring a month out
Look for these bearish patternsLook for these bearish patterns - once s&p volatility is over then can look to buy longs
These setups are good for about 2 months no more , they can and will vary
XHBXHB needs to find support at the 1.618 fibb level. If not it looks like there is more downside to come in homebuilders.
It is too late in my opinion for an entry.The time to enter was on the 2nd low. People who are in, congrats. Looking for new all time highs soon.
Diamond bottom breakout in XHBDiamond bottoms are a strong indicator. I believe there is a high probability of the breakout from this diamond will lead to its target around $76. As it gets closer, I think trailing stop losses on stocks would be a good strategy considering inflation continuing and monetary policy temporarily easing. More tightening will likely be necessary as a result of inflation continuing to be a problem.
XHB (home builders)pretty clear we are in final stages of ending diagonal. I believe we will finish next year with a blow off top, ED.
SPDR Homebuilders ETF (XHB) at risk of bearish reversalAMEX:XHB
US housing market, a key contributor to US economic growth via the wealth effect that will trickle down to consumer spending & confidence.
We can decipher its impact on the overall stock mkt via sentiment/technical analysis on2/2 The recent rally of the $XHB from 19 Oct 22 low to 22 Nov 22 has been accompanied by declining volume & underperformance against the SP 500 ETF $SPY
Looks like up move has hit an inflection zone for a potential bearish reversal below 64.40 key MT pivotal resistance. $XHB
2/2 The recent rally of the $XHB from 19 Oct 22 low to 22 Nov 22 has been accompanied by declining volume & underperformance against the SP 500 ETF $SPY
Looks like up move has hit an inflection zone for a potential bearish reversal below 64.40 key MT pivotal resistance.
FOMC - Pausing rates in futureTodays FOMC minutes stated they will "support slowing of interest rate hikes soon to assess the lagged impact of monetary policy"
XHB - Homebuilders etf will benefit most from slowing or pausing of rates.
New home sales data today reported better than expected results too.
$XHBBroke with huge volume on 10th November
Buy was triggered.
I did not enter as it was gap with $3 range bar.
Then retraced to converging EMA.
Now Stochastic black bar on top
Elliott oscillator green
Retraced on lower volume
Yester small gap up high volume than last 4 days retrace.
Today (23/11/2022) i will place a buy above yester high SL $58 near 50-day average.
$XHBPrevious uptrend as in chart
Wedge
Double Bottom
Second Bottom lower than first one
And did not break the low when small rally on left began from 51.23 levels
CCI is green as of now
Pivot 59.44 need to break
Still:
Elliot oscillator need to become green
Stochastic need to turn up and have black bar on top.
XHB ! US housing market Burst- Upcoming Recession-BTC 100K+I'm looking at XHB weekly timeframe and comparing 2006-2009 US housing market with current situation. On 17 July 2006 XHB bounced 38% then dumped and lost previous swing low/ key support /28-30$ level/ on 23 July 2007/371 days/. When XHB lost key support SPX made first top and second top was 3 months later with bearish divergence, after which S&P dumped 57% and stayed in a bear market 511-595 days. After the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble US great recession started from December 2007 to June 2009. XHB dumped 73% and bottomed at 8$ in 2009. I think the current situation is the same and the same scenario will play out if XHB loses previous swing low and key support/50-52$/. It has already dumped and lost key trendline 60-61$ then pumped 32%. I putted alarm at 50-52$ zone and waiting for break down in coming months, I history repeats the same way, XHB will break down in Q2-2023 /approximately in April-June 2023/ and 140 days later a big recession starts. I think at the same time SPX and BTC will top as well. But before that my best case and most bullish scenario for BTC is new ATH and even 120-145K top target. I'm sure BTC has already topped at 17.5K on 18.06.2022 based on my analysis. You can check them looking at bellow attached files. Later I will post my other scenarios for BTC.
