Energy Strengthening with GrowthLooks like Energy is beginning to show some signs of growth. It is making new highs and seems to be ready for some upside potential from $87 to $89. If it holds at $89, it could retest $92. Do your own due diligence.
XLE trade ideas
Potential Bear Flag in Energy ETFThe SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF has wavered for almost a year, and some traders may expect a push to the downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs since mid-November. December also saw a lower low versus September. That may reflect a bearish longer-term trend.
Next, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “death cross” below the 200-day SMA in late 2024. Those two SMAs, plus the 100-day SMA, are close to each other on the chart. Could that long neutral period create potential for prices to start moving?
Third, MACD is falling and the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) is below the 21-day EMA. Those patterns may reflect bearishness in the short term.
Finally, the recent series of higher lows may be viewed as a bearish flag. If it resolves to the downside, December’s 52-week low of $82.75 could be viewed as the next logical support.
Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above:
SPDR Select Sector Energy ETF (XLE)
1-year: +5.07%
5-years: +64%
10-year: +18.82%
(As of January 31, 2025)
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Gearing up for all time high 2008 / 2014 / 2024 touching 90s each time. Currently monthly is holding my fast emas and right at support. Bullish for me until below slow emas / major pivot broken and retested. Flagging inside the ascending triangle. possible breakout to all time high and beyond.
This chat is for entertainment/educational purpose only. This is just an idea by an amateur.
What's Brooding in the Energy Sector AMEX:XLE (Energy)
Last week, in the COT data report of 24th December 2024, it began to suggest to me that a move was brooding on Heating Oil. Suggesting a trend on the way but I will need more price action data to ascertain it. Not withstanding I have to look for more evidence to support this. Right in this chart below we have
Monthly - Buy Zone contacted
Weekly - Sellside Liquidity taken
Daily - I did like to see retest of that demand area and a quick reaction to the up.
I will keep watching, how we approach Dec 2024 high and April 2024 high is important for any further upside to begin. Until then I keep studying.
Energy Sell Off - Low RSI Not Seen Since CovidWatch energy to see if it bounces off these levels as the selling pressure over the last two weeks has been relentless with no bounces. Possible Bullish abandoned baby candle if tomorrow is a large up candle.
Understanding the Bullish Abandoned Baby
Traders watch for bullish abandoned baby patterns to signal the potential end of a downtrend. The pattern is fairly rare as the price movements need to meet specific criteria in order to create the pattern:
1. The first bar is a large down candlestick located within a defined downtrend.
2. The second bar is a doji candle (open is approximately equal to the close) that gaps below the close of the first bar.
3. The third bar is a large white candle that opens above the second bar.
Short XLEInvestors are piling back into energy along with other inflation trades. There's a large gap down to $90.50 area. Crude oil, shown here by USO, has also tumbled.
Trade is off if XLE makes a new high or USO/crude oil turns up. Press into a short position if crude breaks below $65.
Could also work as a pair trade for those bullish on oil, going long USO.
Energy printing fresh highs within weeksHere's a better chart than the one shared in October, showing that energy has been consolidating above an upward sloping triangle formation, over 900 days in the making .
With just under 4% remaining to reach prior highs set in April, fresh highs could be just weeks away. Looking at the height of the triangle to project potential gains, there could be a whopping 30% upside ahead.
Lately I've stepped back to ponder the fundamental underpinnings of this move. During the same period, the price of oil has cratered by 40%.
Charting XLE/BRENT shows an astonishing double during the bullish XLE triangle formation
Could it be something to do with the hot war in Ukraine? Anecdotally we know OPEC+ (Saudio Aramco et al) has continued to hold on output increases, while their western peers (XLE) are pushing more product than ever. One theory is XLE companies have taken market share to account for the decline in prices.
Two questions remain:
would oil prices in the $40's be enough to tank XLE shares?
if XLE can hold historic value during a deeper oil price decline, where could its valuation be headed during the next bull cycle in oil?
The MOST IMPORTANT Chart On The Planet - $1M Bitcoin Incoming MartyBoots here , I have been trading for 17 years and sharing my thoughts on the most important chart on the planet which is the XLE chart.
This chart will change the entire world
XLE is looking beautiful , very nice chart for more upside
Very similar to SPX500 which also went parabolic
Do not miss out on XLE as this is a great long term opportunity
Watch videos for more details
XLE BearLong Term Bearish on XLE
The deflation narrative is now the contrarian narrative . However, XLE the SPDR Energy giant is signaling a hefty drop on the 3M stochastic RSI . This signal has been produced 3 times in the last two decades leading to multiple 50%+ drops in value of the fund.
The 5-wave impulsive move looking for a similar 3 wave a-b-c corrective wave down to it's most recent corrective wave.
The yield curve un-inversion (zoom in on a 10Y/02Y) is signaling the opposite of the media narrative of higher rates for longer (pending Trump).
However, I believe bond bulls are preparing for economically stormy waters in equities. XLE appears to reflect this.
Considering Jan '27 70P's for wave A with a PT of 55-65$.
Not financial advice!
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Proverbs 14:12 There is way that seems right to a man, but it's path that leads to destruction.
Psalm 119:105 Your word is a lamp to my feet and a light to my path.
Acts 4:11 This Jesus is the stone that was rejected by you, the builders, which has become the cornerstone.
XLE Long DailyAsset Class: Indices
Income Type: Daily
Symbol: XLE
Trade Type: Long
Trends:
Short Term: Up
Long Term: UP
Set-Up Parameters:
Entry: 90.44
Stop: 89.22
TP 93.70 (2.8:1)
Trade idea:
Retest of 1H demand zone formed by a drop-base-rally near the breakout level, SL is a bit lower to cover the deeper RBR structure as the price might test tis liquidity. TP set at the nearest SZ with a 2.8:1 risk-reward ratio. The RSI is oversold.
!!Be aware of pending Economic Reports. If price is within 20 pips of proximal value at time of major impact report, then Confirmation entry.
Trade management:
**When price hits 1:1 or T1, consider moving stop to entry in case of pullback.
**Disclaimer**:
The trading strategies, ideas, and information shared are for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, currencies, or financial instruments. You should do your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred from following these trading ideas.
XLE AT A INTERESTING PRICE WHEN LOOKING AT THE PASTDoes this mean anything?
Yes and no.
you need more to go on than just this to project the move, however, if you assume middle trend is where this price wants to go to stabilize, and you see we are at a major spot when it comes to horizontal support.
I really can't tell yet where it goes.
The upside percentage is far less than the potential downside percentage.
Upside is favored, but again, I can't really tell on this one to say anything other than, it's at a horizontal mark that has been historically important.
Energy vs Tech : Analyzing Sector Performance and Market TrendsIntroduction:
The comparison between the energy sector (XLE) and the technology sector (XLK) provides valuable insights into current market trends. As the largest sector in the S&P 500, XLK often serves as a barometer for broader market strength. Conversely, when XLE outperforms XLK, it may signal caution, as XLE's smaller size limits its impact on the overall index.
Analysis:
Sector Comparison: XLK's performance is crucial in indicating market health. When XLK outperforms, it generally suggests a robust market outlook. On the other hand, if XLE starts to outperform XLK, this may indicate potential weakness in broader market conditions.
Inflationary Pressures: This ratio between XLE and XLK also reflects inflationary trends. A strong performance from XLE relative to XLK may signal rising inflationary pressures, which investors should closely monitor.
Charting the Pattern: The energy sector has formed an inverted saucer pattern. A breakout from this pattern could signify a positive upward trend and possibly a return to inflation.
Trade Setup:
Entry Point: Monitor the XLE/XLK ratio for a potential breakout confirmation.
Stop Loss: Consider setting a stop loss below the recent support level identified on the chart.
Target Price: Set a target based on the measured move from the breakout point of the inverted saucer pattern.
Conclusion:
The comparative performance of XLE and XLK offers essential insights into market dynamics and inflationary pressures. Traders should keep an eye on the potential breakout from the inverted saucer pattern in XLE, as it may indicate a shift in market trends. What are your thoughts on this analysis? Share your insights in the comments!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the XLE/XLK ratio and the inverted saucer pattern)
#Energy #Technology #MarketTrends #Inflation #XLE #XLK
Energy stocks poised for fresh ATHEnergy stocks (XLE) have been in a clear ascending triangle for some months now on the weekly chart. There was a false breakout not too long back, but the pattern held up after breaking down and price is again pushing up against resistance at the top of the triangle.
Having recently posted a massive green candle with the angst in the Middle East, coming weeks and months could bear witness to fresh all time highs.
XLE: Rising Wave PatternTechnical analysis chart of the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), with Elliott wave analysis overlaid. Let's break down the analysis based on the chart and labels:
Overall Analysis:
The chart suggests a bullish trend for XLE, based on the Elliott wave structure. It indicates that we have completed wave ((4)) of wave V and are now in the unfolding wave ((5)). Within wave ((5)), we have started wave (1), and are currently in wave (3) of (1).
Wave Counts and Labels:
V Red: This represents the fifth and final wave of a larger Elliott wave pattern.
((4)) Black: The fourth corrective wave within V.
((5)) Black: The fifth and final impulsive wave within V.
(1) Blue: The first impulsive wave within ((5)).
1 Red: The first wave within (1).
2 Red: The second corrective wave within (1).
3 Red: The third impulsive wave within (1) (currently unfolding).
Price Projection and Invalidation as per Waves:
Bullish Projection: The chart suggests a potential target of 105 for wave ((5)).
Invalidation Level: A break below 83.02 would invalidate the current bullish analysis.
Educational Notes:
Elliott wave theory is a technical analysis tool that identifies patterns in price movements based on a series of five waves.
Impulsive waves (1, 3, 5) move in the direction of the overall trend, while corrective waves (2, 4) move in the opposite direction.
Wave labels use brackets to indicate different levels of analysis. For example, ((5)) is a larger wave than (1).
Colors are often used to visually differentiate between different waves and patterns.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Is oil signalling a recession? Oil has really started to free fall.
The death cross on the daily chart has occurred. this is where the 50 MA intersects with the 200 MA in a downtrend.
This often implies more downside to the medium and long term but is often a great short term long signal.
Usually when you get this signal the market makers bounce the stock or commodity a bit before taking it lower.
We are hitting a massive multi year trend line going back to 2022 that should act as some support.
XLE looks ready for 1 more down leg before a swing tradable low is in.
Energy does have a tendency to fall precipitously so understanding oil can keep falling if investors fear the worst or a recession.
Opening (IRA): XLE October 18th 83 Monied Covered Call... for a 81.41 debit.
Comments: This is a little early for a run at grabbing the September dividend, but wanted to get in when the underlying is still hovering around recent lows ... .
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 81.41
Max Profit: 1.59 (ex. divvies)
ROC at Max: 1.95% (ex. divvies)
50% Max: .80
ROC at 50% Max: .98%
XLE longI think XLE could be a great place to hedge recent chip volitility. the 88 price level has been a consistent support level and with unrest in the middle east we could see oil prices rise. In my personal portfolio NVDA and QCOM are two of my largest holdings and with the recent corrections I've continued to load up however I've been buying XLE just as much to give myself some sort of saftey in the short term.
obviously not a financial advisor do what you want
Lock in Longterm value @ breakout levelsI would have to go on a 3H keyboard mashing to be able to present all the data pointing to the upside.
Breakout of longterm consolidation;
Retest of previous support + longterm trendline;
Breakout from support retest with an bullish engulfing pattern;
W and M indicators are either crossing into neutral zone or indicating an expansive move uP
GL & HF
Opened (IRA): XLE August 16th 85 Monied Covered Call... for an 83.77 debit.
Comments: Some of the only red on my ETF board ... . Here, selling the -75 delta call against a one lot to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. There is also a divvy to be had some time in June, with the last distribution being .73.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 83.77
Max Profit: 1.23 ($123)
ROC at Max: 1.47%
50% Max: .62 ($62)
ROC at 50% Max: .74%
Energy is going to get expensive as soon as the dollar drops!Bounced off long term 200 - crossover rolling over. The dollar will peak this summer and then go down to 97. I see energy exploding. August 100 calls are going for .25 which looks like a minimum 10x return. I see it going past 100, but don't have any estimations for how high it can go.
NFA ALWAYS!
