$SQ $XLE $AAPL $ES watchlist for week 4/18 - 4/22Watchlist -
$SQ Calls > 127.5 | Puts < 120
$XLE Calls > 80 | Puts < 79
$AAPL Calls > 171.25 | Puts < 165
$ES! Calls > 4390.5 | Puts < 4351.25
XLE trade ideas
XLE: Potential Call opportunity unfolding NOWSupport line is based on relatively recent action. Resistance line is built on years of data. Unclear if it will proceed as expected. I will wait for a clear break before committing.
Energy Sector (XLE) breakout ?The Energy Sector ETF had been in a bull run since 4Q2021, and March was the month it stalled. Instead of breaking down, it appeared to be coiling for a launch, and this week looks like it launched a breakout of the triangle it is trapped within.
Crude oil broke above USD100 this week, and this supports the XLE imminent rally, roughly expected for at least another 10%.
Technicals RPM and MACD are turning up again...
XLE (Long energy)Conditions: Trend following trade. Energy is on fire.
Entry: Market (7/04)
Stop: 10%.
Target: Let it ride, buy the dips.
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Current (general) preferred entry ticker conditions and entry signals are either.
a) Reversion to mean from overextension, providing there has been evident support from historical price action and/or a bullish / bearish pintail or rejection evident by an engulfing candle immediately after the supposed support/rejection.
b) Oscillators (Daily/Weekly Stoch as well as the Average Sentiment Oscillator) all providing confluence with a trend line / support level .
Maintain 2:1 RR, use retracements as much as possible. If over extended and sufficient confluence and I'm at my computer, consider a market order.
Establish confluence of support/resistance , trend, oscillators, congruent candles (pintail or engulfing reversal).
XLE LONG 67.74Look daily chart pretty beautiful strength higher lows daily stoch look good great pattern.
Weekly wow looks great side ways again shows relative strength. Target 75-80 area
www.screencast.com
Ascending Triangle in the XLEThe Macro trends of 2022 are no secret to any of us. Sky rocketing inflation and the war in Ukraine have lead to soaring energy costs around the world. As a result, Oil has seen a period of extreme volatility, reaching a high of closing high price of 129.44 on March 8th. As a result, the XLE has followed suit and is up about +30% year to date. Exxon, the largest holding in the XLE, reports earnings on April 29th and has expressed that the anticipate setting record profits. Buy the rumor?
The XLE appears to be forming a nice Ascending Triangle, which could be suggesting a bullish continuation. The Ascending Triangle isn't a particularly strong pattern from a statistical perspective with only about a 60% chance of realizing the bullish continuation. Take it with a big grain of salt, but there is also a very slight Hidden Bullish Divergence on the MACD. Nevertheless, it warrants paying attention to as a potential swing trade.
A lot will depend on what Oil does, and the fact that XOM and CVX are reporting earnings on the 29th muddies the waters a bit. However, it could offer a nice opportunity for a shot in the dark trade to the upside looking for a pop the upside in advance of the earnings. Maybe something like an OTM Call spread around the .30 delta in XLE 30 days out or so...
Is Inflation still an Energy problem?Inflation is mainly an Energy issue but, conditions are so stimulative/inflationary.That inflation has broadened out. Inflation for the past weeks/months has only been about food/energy but, the fed thinks that Core Inflation also needs to be controlled. The Housing market and the Labor market signify a "roaring" economy.... A big labor force with good wages WILL lead to high demand, discretionary spending, higher production and many home buyers. Powell has definitely turned hawkish. The fed is looking to shift from its accommodative stance to a neutral stance. He will look to raise the FedFundsRate to neutral. The fed needs ammo for the next impending recession. Long term yields will remain the feds biggest pain for they will be really fickle to raise. Yield curves are on their way to inversion US10Y/US02Y, US07Y/US05Y, US10Y/US05Y. These yield curves will invert to foreshadow a recession but, a recession can take months/years to occur when these curves invert. Its best to look at the US30Y-US03MY spread at 1.93%. When that yield curve inverts a recession will occur very soon.
CPI increases occur when XLE outperforms SPY. Energy companies profit more during inflationary environments. Energy prices rise when there is ample demand. The crucial relationship to notice on the chart is the formation of local maximums in XLE/SPY correspond to peaks in CPI. In the past couple week Energy prices have relaxed a bit and that has been reflected in XLE. This will lead to a slight pull back in CPI. For CPI, to rocket higher it will need outperformance from XLE relative to SPY.
The current economic landscape has so many crazy dynamics it can be hard to determine which factors are affecting Inflation. The Consumer is strong and people have jobs. The economy is not in a recession in fact, it is quite booming. The fed is hiking rates in response. Core inflation has been increasing and things like housing are getting expensive. Imagine this: you bought a house in 2020-2021 and you have a 2.5%, 30 year mortgage, no loop holes..... That's great for consumers!! They can go buy other stuff due to such a low mortgage. The fed has no other move but to tighten. US03MY is still at ~0.5%, US30Y is ~2.5% and real rates are still negative. Inflation has room to run until the latter part of the year. But, the higher price cure is coming due, to America boosting production. Dollar strength is expected. Watch for XLE/SPY to move towards a local max that, will propel CPI even higher. Or has XLE topped??
Markets - ES, NQ, TLT, XLE, XLF, VIX - WTF over?While crypto is hot on my brain these days, I do still trade the markets. Doing more futures now but still looking to scalp, swing or spread whatever.
Looking into my crystal ball I see trouble brewing lmao. Crystal balls are for shmucks, TA is where its at. Clearer than a crystal ball, markets are trending down. I know it’s crazy, right? Markets trending down, how does that happen? But if this is daily/weekly lower high there could indeed be trouble brewing for bulls.
I was listening to a pod cast the other day talking about the ‘rally’ and how it wasn’t unexpected given the geopolitical situation and that the US markets are the bastion of commerce and thus the safest market to put money in, so lots of Europeans buying in. However, the story goes, that’s only temporary as continuing pressures from higher interest rates, inflation, trade & logistic issues, blah, blah, blah, but basically we are to see more selling pressure. Does make sense but the market will do whatever she is going to do.
ES - Bottom line the 4300 is a very important level if the 4500 doesn’t hold. 4100 is the line in the sand imho. However I wouldn’t be surprised for it to hold the 100dma and surge up to test ATHs. The options on SPX for the coming week has an expected move of only about 88 handles. Interesting since it moved that much on Thursday.
Q's are highly correlated but a bit different with them under their 100 and 200dma. Don’t play the Q's much but worth noting.
Energy seems less affected but it is influenced by oil so I expect that to stay whippy. The financials should be rising with interest rates, right? Well they also hold bonds which are in a serious slide. So the financials may very well be a key this week. Also keep an eye on the foreign markets as an indicator for how we open Monday.
Not lots of volume but I’m expecting volatility to start climbing back up and things to get squirrely. That said, could be a ‘wait and see’ situation where the market chops around current levels. Plenty of opportunities for scalping ranges.
I will likely be scalping ES and not really paying attention to individual names. I only have a few spreads and selling some premium but otherwise not really interested in taking a directional play. If anything, I’m a bit bearish for next week but never let that keep you from making your trade. Buckle up boyz and girlz, could be a wild week, but it could be a snoozer as well.
If you really want to learn how to trade using options, you should visit my friends over at Opinicus They are a top-notch bunch of traders.
BTW, crypto seems to be diverging, but we shall see. Its still very much a rodeo over there LMFAO
Peace
XLE update - 03/04/2022expecting XLE to remain sideway to complete the flat wave 2 before go higher in wave 3.
XLE update - 01/04/2022expecting XLE to remain sideway to complete the flat wave 2 before go higher in wave 3.
XLE Long @ 66.77 Look daily stoch heading up nice swing trade
see the daily stoch came back down to bottom and the stock made a higher low
that is powerful.
Waiting for weakness in oilEnergy may be a good play, but I'm waiting for some weakness to give us good pricing. I'm also looking into alternative energy like Tesla, as these new oil prices will re-invigorate our green energy market.
Long $XLEXLE ETF has much territory to recover.
War keeps oil prices surging, sanctions and cuts in supply play their part in the boom of the energy sector.
On the long run still, I think we'll see it normalize in the sense that I don't think a reversion of the trend wouold be possible (meaning price surpass 100USD). Unless war times worsen.
Hopefully for all people involved in the armed conflict this situation will find it's end soon.
AMEX:XLE
Oil up 38% in 7 days! When to sell?Oil exploding higher again making a 7 day run of 38% and XLE running up 14%. Long-term XLE is my play, raking in the dividends but taking profits relatively soon might be wise. We are right at the resistance level for XLE that looks to be pretty heavy but that resistance isn't like the Ukrainian military so I think it's more likely we blow through that level if oil continues. it cannot continue at this pace for long and that's why I want to be taking profits.
If you're trading in the futures market then you have a much better chance of pulling in some high percentage gains in the short run as I believe somewhere above $150/ barrel you will find resistance and it will come crashing down. The question really is, where is the new support? As long as this war continues I think we will stay above $78/ barrel as the new support level. especially with inflation. If WW3 cracks off, all bets are off and I wouldn't see it falling below $100. That being said, XLE won't experience the same type of gains in the short run as a trade. As soon as oil sells off people will sell XLE hard because they are really betting on future gains of the sales of gasoline which won't be there if oil has come back down. The catch is if oil continues to stay elevated and without any subsidies from the government, then there will be less driving which means fewer sales and XLE will be falling.
This is why I think it's wise to take profits on the way up, find a huge sell-off and get back in position on the way down. As we are likely heading into a recession I may roll some of this into TLT for the short run as I exit don't he way up to potentially make some gains in TLT without taking the risk in XLE. As XLE falls when oil pops the lit off, that's when I take my gains in TLT and roll it into XLE again for a longer trade but increasing my position by 20-30%,
XLE SHORT $50 chart gap at $50 and gap at $42 are the first things to notice.
However, there is support going down so it's not like we should expect those prices quickly, but it's good to take note as trends start to break.
support (blue lines) heading down priced.
I do think we hit a top right around $78-$76, and will return to around $72-$74 after it drops a bit before seeing another sell off. I'd start looking for entry on the confirmation.
I could see this settling around $50 (see green trends.
$XLE - Big trendline resistance XLE will have a tough time getting through this area but in reality, it needs a cool off period anyways. Would not be surprised to see this fall back 10-15% before pushing higher. If it breaks through, however, it will still be good to hop on board to $100/sh. GLL
This is not intended as a recommendation. It is for informational purposes only.
Oil rising be ready to sellAs war drums are beating and WW3 may be on the verge of becoming a new reality, oil is ripping the faces off of people shorting it. It's also ripping your wallet apart. I expect a sell-off at some point if it continues at this rate but probably not before making new all-time highs above $150/ barrel. I expected XLE to get to $135 over the next 4-5 years but now it climbing very quickly ut I believe that is short-term. I may be taking some profits around the $100 mark as I expect government control to come in. I am not sure what that will look like yet but if it is a subsidized market whether cash in people's pockets or giving money to oil companies to keep the price low, that's inflation so I expect those stock prices to continue to rise. In the short term, you can hear the negative talk that may trash these stock prices which is exactly why I want to be taking profits at technical places and be ready to buy on these bottoms.
XLE oil WTI
XLE UpdateWave ((5)) has unfold into clear impulse structure. We will continue to monitor for any reversal sign and we are expecting a retracement after completion of wave ((5)). -- Pengiran.
XLE - Higher to complete Wave ((5))Positive development of XLE since our last posting. We can see a clear price movement in motive wave fashion for wave ((5)). For now we are still expecting price to push higher to complete wave ((5)). -- Pengiran.
XLE - Wave ((4)) correction in progress.We are on the late stage of wave ((4)) development and expecting price to move higher for wave ((5)) to complete this impulse sequence. -- Pengiran
Crude Oil - Higher to complete wave ((iii))As for now. We are expecting price to move higher to complete wave ((iii)). Using Fibonacci multiple guidelines within impulse wave, reasonable target for wave ((iii)) is at 1.618 relationship compare to wave ((i)) movement. Our invalidation level is set at 82.98. – Pengiran.
XLE: Elliott Wave ForecastHello and welcome,
I am expecting more upside to complete wave 5 of v, the alternate as i mention is that this wave top will be the 5th of 3rd wave.
XLE: Looking for wave (3) of 3Hello and Welcome,
My outlook is bullish in xle and looking for a big move above 60.
