XLE trade ideas
Longgg AFGotta break through this point (red line) if we do i am targeting $55 by end of april. bought call options for cheap. Short squeeze begins middle of next month..
XLE holding up tooAlso noted that XLE, the energy sector (ETF), is co-holding up the equity markets in lieu of technology sector, together with the financials.
Just to watch this space...
Counter trend SHORT...Swing trade...Oil went up too fast...Shorting XLE as a counter trend trade. Strictly a swing trade.
RSI on a 2 hour Heikin Ashi chart is at 80. RSI 80 is my overbought signal for me.
I am bearish only a very short term. I am bullish on long and intermediate term.
Strict trade management is the key in this trade.
Learn, Plan, Size and Manage.
This publish is not an investment advice. I am not an investment advisor. So, you are solely responsible for your actions on your money.
Something to Watchno confirmation = no trade
no profit margin = no trade
must get a confirmation on LTF
Either 15M Timeframe or 10M or 5M
we must get a change of trend on those timeframes like price coming into the zone with LL/LH and we need HH/HL To come in!
that's how i enter 99% of my trades
Long term trend change in XLEHere I am comparing the weekly XLE/SPY chart from April 2017. For only the second time ( first was a false breakout) the XLE/SPY chart is breaking above the long term exponential moving averages. I believe this is very significant since the energy market has been in a long term sustained downturn. Perhaps the catalyst for the move is that large sections of the country have experienced a historically severe winter drawing down the current supply levels. In any case the technical indicators make a persuasive case.
The RSI oscillator is at the highest levels since May 2018.
The MACD indicator is also about to turn positive.
This is a longer term call over the next few months to begin overweighting energy stocks as part of your overall portfolio.
Energy vs UraniumPeople are quite excited about uranium and hating on oil stocks.
I see Uranium futures losing support, Cameco directors dumping their shares, premiums on calls on Robin Hood..
Meanwhile, Oil prices are rallying, Texas oil offline, about 40% of US production and what sounds like serious supply chain issues. I am seeing experienced commodity traders hating on oil stocks saying they wont catch up to oil even though the gap between the two is historic.
Many are expecting Oil stocks to drop, but I noticed on Friday, $SU made a respectable weekly close and moving down to the daily chart we have a bullflag consolidation, more so on $XLE.
$USOIL did close the week below $60 which I thought was an important level but depending on how you draw trendlines we have a clear break out.
Currently risking a totally of 3.5% account with $SU and $OSH.AX calls. I want to see $USOIL close above $60 to add upto 5% account exposure.
XLE / SPX - new trend confirmedthought this chart was very nice, obvsiously XLE has already had a nice move since this divergence but looks pretty good for confirmation of new XLE uptrend.
XLE - Oil Sector has Great PotentialFor those who have infinite patience (silver stacking develops this virtue), the oil sector appears to still be one of the best value plays around. Crude has nearly doubled from the 30s late last year to be pushing 60 as of late. While higher prices and carbon taxes will probably push gas prices to levels never seen before in the US, past experience showed that supply/demand factors had no correlation with prices (the new normal in economics p.s., don't waste your money on an elite B-School MBA).
A little bit of foresight shows the potential of making four times your money on various equities in the oil sector. Looks like first resistance will come about 20% higher as we hit the neckline of a former head and shoulders top. But ultimately, the pattern can develop into a massive reverse head and shoulders, playout out over the next three to five years.
Comparing many oil and oil service stocks, they all look pretty much the same. XOM is paying a strong dividend and the company insists it will continue the payout. Other options include APA, CVX, IMO . . . and the oil service sector, SLB. They are all playing out the same pattern here. Although the long term down trends are still intact, these markets have so much money going to them now that anything cheap has the potential to soar to dizzying heights. There is going to be massive inflation as a result of the money printing, the only way it seems that one can protect him/herself is ensuring a solid exposure to the commodity sector.
Energy Stocks Closed Out This Week Nicely... But Look out AheadWEEKLY CHART -- We've been inside this massive bear flag which could very well turn out to be an ascending triangle. I took profits today, expecting a sharp pullback next week. Regardless of the pattern, it seems evident energy stocks need a little sell-off before proceeding higher. Over the weekend I'll be looking at that sector in more detail to identify potential gems going into the next couple weeks.
XLE ENERGY SPIDER- GOING TO $50.00? In this video, I want to show you how the XLE is behaving in a multi year trend and what I expect in the next few weeks.
Disclosure: These are my opinions and should not be taken as investment advice. I only draw lines on charts.
$XLE CALMA StratReason for buying this stock:
Entry:
1. Candle is above ALMA
2. CCI Breaks 100
Exit:
1. Sell when happy
2. Candle is below ALMA
Not a financial advice. TAYOR. DYOR
XLE is poised to make new highs XLE looks poised to continue its uptrend and make a new regional high. It's currently being supported by higher crude prices and a dollar which looks to be losing footing on its previous bounce. I personally think that production cuts will eventually cause supply shocks when demand will pick up. It will take sometime for the oil markets to reach equilibrium, thrusting prices higher. There is evidence from recent reports in China and the U.S that inventories are rapidly dropping. Energy will continue to outperform in the near terrm, although it is susceptible to the equity markets conditions.
Energy ETF Pulls Back to 50-day SMAAttention has recently focused on short squeezes and Big Tech earnings, but Energy remains the top-performing sector in 2021.
We started the year highlighting the golden cross in the SPDR Energy ETF, which proceeded to jump to a seven-month high. Prices have pulled back since and are now trying to hold their 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
The next feature on XLE’s chart is the oversold condition on stochastics.
The other important chart is the price of oil itself. This image shows the bullish outside candle yesterday on WTI Crude Oil CFDs (USOIL). Black gold’s closing price was the second highest since the pandemic selloff began almost a full year ago. (Remember energy fell before the broader market last February.)
Oil has benefited from a favorable supply/demand mix as the global economy continues to reopen. The Energy Department’s inventory reports have been tighter than expected in four of the last five weeks. (Less supply means less of an oil glut.) Bloomberg also reported on Sunday that OPEC+ complied with a historically high 99 percent of agreed cuts in January.
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Looking for a bounce in XleI'm looking for a bounce to $41. I see an oversold rsi, with price action coming into the bottom of a channel, the 200 day MA is heading towards the price to add some additional support. Contingent on the general markets price action, if all else holds, xle heads to 41 and possibly $50 if a breakout ensues.
XLE will be up for the next few barsReasons to be up.
1. Bull flag on the hourly chart.
2. Failed trend channel line break,
3. 3-pushes down and reversing up.
4. Up trend for the past few months.
Update on XLE: Uptrend test, TA signaling a correctionThe ETF's recovery is starting to show its first cracks as we have dropped from Yesterday's highs and closed without an attempt to buy the dip. Volumes were the around the average for the day and the fall could be mostly a result from long covering.
But there are some technicals that suggest we may return back inside the range. RSI and MACD have bearish crossovers and RIS is also below 50. MACD's histogram is going negative.
Current price is sitting on two major supports and today's price action will be an important one. This is an area for caution.
Update on XLE: Potential continuation of the uptrendTaking a look back at XLE we can see that the ETF has returned to test the area of breach of the symmetrical triangle (or the current support of the descending trend line). Pick up in volume shows that the activity has risen and market participants are getting excited. A breach was made a classical follow-up test was made. Currently, we are sitting at the support and overall there was no attempt in Yesterday's market session to push below it. The dip was bought and XLE closed firmly with a fresh high for the day. Even though here RSI and MACD are laying out the perspectives for a deeper correction it may be "skipped". Recovery in energy assets may pull up the ETF away from the support for the uptrend to continue.
My personal view is that trend will continue and XLE will rise, but it won't be wise not to forecast a negative scenario as well.
The outlook will shift to negative if we see a strong push back inside the triangle. Fundamentals are still shaky with the COVID-19 pandemic still raging. This may raise the question of additional lockdowns or stopping global flights again, which will hit oil and energy prices overall.
OPENING (IRA): XLE MARCH 19TH 32 SHORT PUT... for a .78/contract credit.
Notes: Continuing to build 2021 positions ... . Have some on in the February cycle, so going out to March with 30-day implied at 40.1%, expiry-specific at 41.3%. 2.47% ROC at max as a function of notional risk.
OPENING (IRA): XLE FEBRUARY 19TH 34 SHORT PUT... for a .71/contract credit.
Notes: Highest background implied on my exchange-traded fund board with 30-day at 40.2%, expiry-specific at 41.6%. I've already got some January stuck out there, so am basically laddering out a smidge by selling the 16 delta out in the February monthly. ROC: 2.13% as a function of notional risk at max; 10.65% annualized at max.
XLE (US energy sector) 10% correctionAwaiting 10% correction to complete wave B of ABC(uptrend correction)
Very similar to SPY (SNP500)
