56.5 xle line in the sand xle has not had a monthly close below 56.5 for many years, ...scratching at the door
XLE trade ideas
Trump the Great! (Or Not)Trump has been in Office for 921 days. He campaigned on bringing back old industries like steel and of course 'clean' coal. He lived up to his promises of lifting and removing thousands of environmental regulations and laws. So what are the results?
....................1/20/09 - 1/20/17..............1/20/09 - 7/30/11..............1/20/17 - 7/30/119 ..........
ETF .............. OB %chg after 8 Years..............OB Days in Office 921..............TR Days in Office 921
SLX .............. 55.58%............................144.79%............................-7.35%
KOL .............. 1.18%..............................281.81%...........................-2.80%
XLE .............. 69.18%..............................73.26%..........................-15.62%
TAN .............. -74.91%..............................-7.66%...........................63.31%
SPY .............. 181.42%...............................9.84%...........................32.63%
QQQ .............. 340.81%............................106.47%...........................57.23%
XHB .............. 218.83%.............................54.52%............................22.74%
Lessons to be taken. 1. Regulations can help keep smaller players out of your industry, thus reducing competition - Hence 'drill baby drill' not always a good thing.
2. No one believes or want our 'clean' coal. 3. The masses are smarter than the select elite few who deny climate change and are investing in solar.
How good is Trump?Trump has been in Office for 921 days. He campaigned on bringing back old industries like steel and of course 'clean' coal. He lived up to his promises of lifting and removing thousands of environmental regulations and laws. So what are the results?
Obama 8 Y 1/20/09 - 7/30/11 1/20/17 - 7/30/19
ETF %chg Obama 8 Years Obama Days in Office 921 Trump Days in Office 921
SLX 55.58% 144.79% -7.35% STEEL
KOL 1.18% 281.81% -2.80% COAL
XLE 69.18% 73.26% -15.62% ENERGY
TAN -74.91% -7.66% 63.31% SOLAR
SPY 181.42% 59.84% 32.63% S&P 500
QQQ 340.81% 106.47% 57.23% NSDQ100
XHB 218.83% 54.52% 22.74% HOUSING
Obama 8 Y 1/20/09 - 7/30/11 1/20/17 - 7/30/19
ETF %chg Obama 8 Years Obama Days in Office 921 Trump Days in Office 921
SLX 55.58% 144.79% -7.35% STEEL
KOL 1.18% 281.81% COAL
XLE 69.18% 73.26% ENERGY
TAN -74.91% -7.66% SOLAR
SPY 181.42% 59.84% S&P 500
QQQ 340.81% 106.47% NSDQ100
XHB 218.83% 54.52% HOUSING
1/20/17 - 7/30/19
ETF Trump Days in Office 921
SLX -7.35% STEEL
KOL -2.80% COAL
XLE -15.62% ENERGY
TAN 63.31% SOLAR
SPY 32.63% S&P 500
QQQ 57.23% NSDQ100
XHB 22.74% HOUSING
Daily XLE stock price trend forecast analysis18-Jul
Price trend forecast timing analysis based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength.
Investing position: In Falling section of high risk & low profit
S&D strength Trend: About to begin a rebounding trend as a downward trend gradually gives way to slowdown in falling and rises fluctuations
Today's S&D strength Flow: Supply-Demand(S&D) strength flow appropriate to the current trend.
read more: www.pretiming.com
Forecast D+1 Candlestick Color : RED Candlestick
%D+1 Range forecast: 0.6% (HIGH) ~ -0.6% (LOW), -0.1% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of rising: 1.0% (HIGH) ~ -0.4% (LOW), 0.6% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of falling: 0.3% (HIGH) ~ -1.2% (LOW), -1.0% (CLOSE)
ENERGY Long I like the RSI and MacD indications for a long portfolio position here. Natural gas and oil have been beat down enough that this looks interesting, a little dollar weakness wouldn't hurt either.
QUARTERLY XLE-ENERGY STRUCTURALLY DETAILED TA-2019 (+MACD/RSI)Safe to say that post 2014 (and even earlier) the renewables have become a serious competition to the traditional part of the XLE sector(coal/gas/oil).
Crucial note: Breaking of the black trendline, could symbolize the start of a recession as this would mean that inflation expectation have decreased.
In any case, this is just a brief analysis, everything is on the chart. There's really not much to say, XLE hasn't performed well in the last 5 years(blue text) compared to other sectors.
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Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me.
XLE is poised for a breakout, as fuel prices rise. The world is not a very safe place at the moment especially if you own a Oil Tanker, current tensions in the middle east has seen oil prices rise considerably in recent days, threats of storm damage has even resulted in a price rise in Natural gas, thus the beaten down XLE may be a nice trade in the days to come.
We have outlined on the chart a possible trade strategy on a nearterm breakout.
Oil stocks look bullish to me. XLE weekly log You can see we have had a long sideways consolidation which to me looks like a 5 wave triangle . If US Dollar continues to drop as I favor and with all the global turmoil in oil producing countries it is fertile ground for oil to rise. The dotted horizontal lines I see as resistance. Strong weekly candle last week and break of short term down trend line.
Have great week.
XLE SHORT ON A DAILY CHART XLE is currently the weakest sector among all other sectors and the market SPY is in basically in a SELL or an overbought area. Feeling bearish right now and shorting the weakest sector ETF is a good choice.
app.box.com
Closed bear call spread XLEopened bear call 14/14.5 for .27 credit
reached 50% profit target and closed on 5/29 for .14 debit
net $13 profit
XLE - Bearish Inside Bar Pin Bar Fake OutAn inside bar / pin bar fake out pattern has formed on the XLE weekly chart. This pattern has formed just below a key resistance level as well as the 50% retracement of the last swing high/low, which is exactly the area we want to see this form. One negative with this setup is that price has formed a very sharp v-shaped reversal off it's lows. That doesn't mean that the pattern is untradable but it does mean any trades taken here need to be aggressively defended, and profit targets not be too aggressive.
Bearish DiveregenceReverse bearish divergence with recent bearish divergence. Price target is .618 of recent run up.
XLE Another Short ContenderXLE Similar pattern as SPY just at a steeper angle.
Has more downside than SPY.
Another solid contender for put options off of the pattern backtest.
