XLE trade ideas
Energy stocks might be overvalues against oil pricesThe break of the pennant within the possible head and shoulders complex could be the deciding factor. In terms of risk/rewad I prefer to short energy stocks against oil. But the way the chart is forming on a daily metric leads me to believe the trend of stronger energy stocks against oil prices will continue in the long term.
Corrective pullback in US Energy sector in the coming monthsWe have been bullish US Energy since early 2016, but price action in the past months is beginning to give us some cause for concern.
With the 50% retracement of the 2014-2016 fall now reached, but not decisively broken, and stochastics very overstretched, we believe a corrective pullback is now developing.
Additonally, the Energy sector is also showing signs of weakness relative to the SPX, suggesting Hedge Funds and other 'big players' could be moving assets into more promising sectors.
However, whilst we believe a correction is due, the longer-term charts continue to improve, and we view this pullback as a multi-month buy-into-dips strategy, as prices are expected to trade higher into 2017Q2+.
Energy continued uptrend $XLEPretty much looking like $COP breaking out of a bull flag. Tomorrow will tell if this is for real. To me it's pretty clear price is going up for now
XLE - Looking for a dip then going long$72 is a good support area for me. Looking to enter long term calls and/or a spread.
long XLE @ 15 min @ trading capability for this 52nd week `16This is only a trading capability - no recommendation !!!
Next wkk i`ll confirm or change my opinion about this SetUp :)
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...
Best regards
Aaron
XLE buy zone at $73-74It looks like we are in the 4th of C wave tracing out an ending diagonal. Watch for $73-$74 for a long position.
XLE Cycle and AnalogThis is possibly one of the more interesting plays going forward. The 2014-16 decline mirrored the 2007-09 decline (price wise almost a perfect match). The recovery or retrace is tracing out along the same analog (2009-10). There appears to be another dip ahead (per the analog) before an explosive move higher into 2018.
HEAD FAKE or more upside for XLE?Technically Speaking
Price breaking above 71.80. The next upside target is ~83.50ish +16%
Good support down at 65.00.
What to do?
I feel like I have missed the boat when it was at 65. Aggressive traders might be buying here, but I am going to wait.
XLE OPEP EXPECTATIONSWe make our trade in expectation of bad results for OPEC`s deal to freeze oil production.
XLEEnergy stocks have rallied enough here. Unable to break key Fib level with divergent momentum and an OPEC that will most likely not come to an agreement. Oh yeah, and junk bonds have rallied way too far as well. All in all, this sector has had everything in the world go right to get to this point and it's still flagging. We could see some sideways chop for a little bit, but over all, I think this puppy is headed much lower, below the January lows, but probably not till much later in 2017.
