XLE trade ideas
Energy Sector, Temporary Bottom?In feb, when DJIA triggered a massive long signal, this energy XLE sector was brought along for half a year.
However, when the price hit the top, there wasn't any MACD & RSI divergence signals at all.
End of July saw the break of short-term uptrend line twice, which trigger a sell signal.
Subsequently the price has engaged in the downtrend channel nicely.
On friday's close, it was another bearish candle with the fact that crude oil futures drop below $90 and close at 89.71.
But i am doing a little big of contrarian long again here due to:
1. the downtrend channel seems to be well respected upper and lower
2. RSI has no bullish divergence level, but it is way way OVERSOLD!
3. Bullish divergence happen in CCI, although CCI gives randomly reliable signal
4. two rejection below 88
5. the volume for last three trading day looks like climatic selling (while Funds are climatic buying?) and this volume is comparable to the temporary bottom back in Feb.
1st target will be around 92 which coincide with the resistance of downtrend channel and slight around 200ema. Anything more bullish can see it test 94.88 again.
XLE - looking to buyPullback
Status: Building position
Technicals:
Horizontal S&R: yes, weekly and daily
Channel S&R: some. raising red trend line looks good at $90
MA S&R: yes
Pearson's R >= 85: ok
Price within Fib Ret..62: yes
Stochastic turn/crossover above 80%: daily good. weekly still little early
AO pullback >0<1.38: daily no, weekly ok
XLE is energy stocks turning around?XLE energy sector is underperforming the market in the last 3 months
a look in the long term chart reveals a steady uptrend starting in mid 2012
then in feb 2014 price become more assertive and didn't have a "real" correction
fib retracement show support at 94$ and price action today may suggest that the correction is at its end
crossing the dashed black line will be confirmation to resume uptrend
1st resistance at 98.5$
if price crosses resistance raise stop instead of taking profit at 130.6
as long as the channel is intact price will go higher
PAIRS TRADE: Short XLE, Go Long Crude OilWidest spread in 5 years in XLE versus Crude Oil (Cl1!-front month)-
Use this wide spread to leg into positions and set your sights on a big reversion in this wide spread.
Tim
9/2/2014 2:40PM EST
Market Rally Is Lacking Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSEARCThe S&P 500 made a low of 1904.78 on August 7, and has basically gone straight up since that day. If you look at the chart, it has formed a perfect "V" and is looking to challenge its all time high of 1991.39. The Nasdaq has definitely lead the charge higher, crossing the 4500 mark for the first time in 14 years! While the markets have moved higher, I notice that the energy sector (as represented by the Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSEARCA:XLE) has not participated in this rise.
The Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSEARCA:XLE) is a very key sector and was one of the market leaders when the S&P 500 was making new all time highs on a daily basis. The reason for the under performance by this group has primarily been due in large part to the declining price of crude oil, which has fallen by 12% since mid June. This under performance could be foretelling of something that smart investors are not looking at right now.
So is this energy weakness a buying opportunity?
I have included a chart below showing the weekly chart for the Energy Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSEARCA:XLE). As you can see, it is nowhere near its high watermark of $101.52, which was set back on June 23. Does this mean that the sector will play catch up to the broader indexes? Well with summer winding down and the end of the "driving season" fast approaching, I would suspect further downside could be in the tank. The chart is telling us all this, as it is currently forming a bearish pattern. While these markets have had this impressive rally off the lows, this chart clearly shows it could be lacking the needed "energy" to keep it going.
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Oil investors bewarehello all,
while scanning the broader market I recently stumbled upon the energy sector's ETF (XLE) and the message I got was startling to say the least. Energy itself has been on quite a run of late but it appears as though that rally may have run out of steam. Indeed, the Double top registered through late July looks rather solid and support levels look a long way away from current levels. For those that missed the original topping even, I could see a nice rally off the 38.2 Fib ('1st stop' target) back up into resistance. The OTE (short) zone at the moment coincides with both the down trend line off the top and some gaps that ought to be filled. If I wasn't short now, I would use that counter trend rally (OTE short sweet spot 99.30) to get short and risk against that double top high (101.52). Targets remain the 50% level (91.65) and ultimately the OTE (long) zone and its sweet spot near 87.00.
Cheers all and hope my simple analysis is of benefit
Brian
aka CRInvestor
Potential Short sell on Energy Select Sector Confluence of CD=1.618 AB, 2.24 BC extension and 1.618 leg of the Deep Crab pattern all converge in a tight area between 95.62 and 101.40.
In addition to this they converge to the logical number 100.00. Hence a pull back, not a reversal, sounds like a tempting trading idea.
Stop Loss order: 103.00
Entry: 97.45
Target Profit : 75.00
XLE outperformer vs overall market Energy and oil stocks act better than broad market. Money rotates in this sector. $WFT $BHI $HAL $XOM and others are on their highs.
Nice flagging near highs in this ETF and it looks poised to make a move higher with well defined stop below $93.
$XLE Head & ShouldersEnergy has been on a breakout for a month now. It might be about to dry up based on MM to 94.84 on H&S bottom. I entered on 89, will be putting tight stop in at 94 if/when it breaks 94. Watching to see if it forms bull flag after that
XLE Energy ETF, retesting breakout.XLE Energy
XOI Index has broken out relative the S&P 500 from the
beginning of April. Testing the brakeout.
Preferred Rotation Sector with Oil staying elevated.
Pattern-wise the current pullback is corrective, which
in the bigger picture is still very constructive, using any weakness to add.
MACD bullish.
Support : 87
targets: 92, 95
Energy upsideI like both $FLSR and $KED if market stabilizes who have shown recent strength $FLSR $KED
XLE LONGThe energy patch broke out of its
long trading range yesterday and is
now breaking out. I missed this breakout
entry point and will be looking for a pullback
for entry
Update: A Rally, Then A Rolling? | #XLE $SPDR $AMEXFriends,
On February 02nd, we cautioned traders about a potential new historical high to 93.08 using this WEEKLY chart.
Since then, a bullish pinbar sent price to a current weekly high of about 84.75, corresponding to a 2-month old structural resistance of a Shark. For the astute, advanced pattern trader, one should expect the current rally to stall at 50% of the recent downward impulse leg that developed over the past 6 candles from above $88.00 to recent higher-low level.
OVERALL:
At this point, we find no significant technical event that should alter our original predictive analysis and forecasting. Our directional bias remains bullish with a cautious technical mark at 93.08 as a potential overhead reversal, and probable distant bearish targets down below.
A break above 93.08 will prompt us to redefine new overhead targets with greater granularity than we can provide at the moment.
Cheers,
David Alcindor | 4xQuad
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado, USA
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XLE reversal opportunityXLE's streak of five consecutive losing weeks came to an end this week with a .79% gain and an equally important "hammer". The hammer candle in the attached chart is a potential bullish reversal candle that requires confirmation. As a coincident indicator we use the "overbought/oversold" Williams %R indicator. An overbought condition is bullish for the ETF and bullish conditions can remain so for extended periods of time. Prior reversals have coincided with a small dip of the Williams %R below overbought and then a sharp reversal back to overbought. If next week is positive for XLE we can consider this reversal confirmed and higher prices ahead.
