Energy sector, bullish?AMEX:XLE is showing signs of strength on the weekly time frame. Most oil & gas companies have had a great run YTD, and the energy is sector is among the few green sectors YTD.
XLE trade ideas
$XLE: +6.65% WIN, Taking Half Off This might continue to run, but I want to take profits into strength +6.65%
I am only taking half of the position. For the rest of position stop loss is at break-even.
This way I am GUARANTEED profit for at least +3.33% on the whole position.
With this technique I have massively improved my worst case scenario.
Probability is high for a pullback.
XLE is ready to move down- a deep Gartley is almost achieved
- it could be longed again when bouncing down to the trend line
Comparing XLE performance and XOMFirst thing first, let's take a look at the components of XLE here
You can see that Exxon Mobil and Chevron takes up almost half of this ETF portfolio. Unless you are familiar with the FA components of individual stocks, investing in an ETF like XLE can be a cost effective and hassle free approach.
Performance wise, you can see that from March 20 to current date, XLE has gone up almost 200% vis-a-vis 170% for Exxon Mobil. Also, buying into individual stocks can be costly as well along with the risks contained in a single company. For detailed explanation, read here
$XLE - moving Stop-loss to break evenThis is @ +4.34% winner. I will move stop loss to break-even to improve worst case scenario.
XLE -- Long --Inverse head & shoulder breakout
--long looking strong
--RSI at 70 and hit short target, might come back for a re-test at the neck line
--Could be an entry point again at the re-test at the neckline
The Third Greatest Short of all timeHello friends.
Our original XLE idea was the greatest short of all time. XLE collapsed.
Then we had an idea for the second-greatest short of all time. XLE collapsed.
Now, here we are with the third greatest short of all time. Is this time different?
Demand for energy is being demolished by increasing interest rates, and the price of natural gas has collapsed plus the price of crude oil is down badly. XLE doesn't seem to notice yet, but it may notice in the future.
Short entry: $84.25
$XLE #Oil Bullish Setupmany oil stocks looking like $XLE
Shakeout in the base and back to recent base highs with volatility contracting.
Expecting a correction in energyThe energy market got overhyped with news that OPEC cut oil production by a large amount. This is normal for big news events -- the price first overreacts by flying much faster and further than it should and then has a harsh correction when reality sets in. We can trade this harsh correction with put options to expire at some point next week.
Thanks for playing.
$XLE -- LongXLE hold the long support level; breakout of the triangle at the major resistance
A base with double bottom (W pattern) was created in the triangle to have a base support for the breakout and up trend.
Could hit 52 weeks high again. RSI might hits 70 at over bought level and might come back down for a re-test. Good luck
XLE SHORTXLE
Operamos un retroceso, con potencial de busca de nuevo minimos
ENTRADA 81,80
STOP 85
TARGET 74
XLE BO:bottom@66,Support@76, next stops are 90/98/107BULLISH CASE: XLE held a June low @66 which is a 0.618 retracement. It formed a triangle & has since bounced off the base very strongly with 2 gap-ups. Moving averages 50, 100 & 200 are forming a ribbon & are all pointing up. 76 is a strong support with volume profile.
If this breakout from the triangle sees a follow-thru in the next few days, XLE may double the triangle & target the next 2 Fib levels at 98 & 107 with some consolidation at the recent ATH at 90.
Crude oil & Natural gas bouncing strongly.
10-yr rate TNX & dollar index DXY turns up & are also bouncing higher.
BEARISH CASE: If this will be a false breakout, then the 2 recent up-gaps will be filled with XLE going back inside the triangle.
Not trading advice
XLE short (short term)The XLE went on a rip your face off rally the last few days. 20 % in 10 days! RSI on the 1 hour reached some pretty over bought levels the past few days. The MACD also crossed over and is heading down. Still above 0 which is bullish but I don't think we will be there tomorrow. That level at 82-83 seems to be a pretty strong level of resistance. I doubt the rally or the energy crisis is going to push it past. To put the icing on the cake for the FIB, we are at a .618 retracement.
Personally I like what I see, especially with the market as a whole very bearish. I think we could see a 7-10 % correction. In the next couple of days. The economic news coming out tomorrow will also play a huge roll in the outcome.
Thanks for reading, trade safe!
XLE breaking down from Ascending Channel - global slowdown?XLE just broke down from its ascending channel, which might be signalling that the market is pricing in a global slowdown.
XLE also broke down from an ascending channel in '08 and '14. In the case of 2008, SPX crashed. But in 2014, SPX traded sideways/flat for a while
Long | XLE | Energy Sector is risingAMEX:XLE
Possible Scenario: LONG
Evidence: Price Action, geo political fundamental analysis.
PTs are defined on the chart, this is a very safe bet for 2022 and following year, I will buy Call options for 2022 now and even my buy-zone.
*This is my idea and could be wrong 100%.
Long | XLEAMEX:XLE
Possible Scenario: LONG
Evidence: Unusual option activity, price action
This is my idea and could be wrong 100%
* Consider political conflicts and geo political interests, this ETF is a crystal ball
The Second Greatest Short Of All TimeHello friends. You surely remember when I created my idea "The Greatest Short of All Time". And it was. XLE proceeded to print a mind-shattering collapse, exactly as I had forseen. But now, we have had a pullback as expected and it is time for a new short.
There are several reasons why energy is bearish now.
For one, there is a highly bearish seasonal window which we are entering right now for gasoline
On top of this, Natural Gas just formed a Scam Top pattern and is hurtling towards the downside rapidly
Rates continue to rise, and inflation has obviously peaked at this point, with the latest CPI reading at a flat 0% and future readings quite possibly geared up to start bleeding into the negatives. Kalshi predicts an annual inflation between 7.0-7.9%. I think it's more likely to be even lower, but even Kalshi's conservative estimate would already be a decrease in inflation for this year
There appear to be some large trader purchasing massive amounts of puts on XLE
Insiders also have not eased off even a bit and are still selling XLE hand over fist
We will play this idea by purchasing a reasonable amount of XLE puts which are dated to expire on September 30th and have a strike price at $80.
I have a feeling that guy who shit all over every one of my energy short ideas, saying it was impossible for XLE to collapse, is now resting peacefully 6 feet under. But if you are him and reading this, I just want to give you a huge L. You deserve it.
Thanks for playing.
Energy is unpredictable but cooling downEnergy is very dependent on the leaders' decisions, less on fundamentals. A slight cool off in oil prices looks more likely to continue, but the option bets are all over the place - some people bet the price of XLE will reach 99, some people have short bets for 63
Energy XLE idea (02/09/2022)SPDR Select Sector Fund 1H Range
XLE Energy Sector Index is expected to rise to target the third wave. Since prices are above the long-term support level of 70.59, the key support point at 65.48, we expect a downward correction at the moment. Prices are below 85.23. We expect a correction in wave b and then descend again to complete wave (ii).
$XLE: Weekly and monthly uptrendNice signal in energy names. Macro and fiscal policy are sure making the Fed's life hard. The trend in commodities, energy, value vs growth remains bullish, same as the trend in the Dollar vs the Euro. The recent drop in inflation and oil created a very low risk buy opportunity in commodities in general. I've rotated away from my growth focused portfolio in the prior week, and am long $XLE and other names in my portfolio. I suggest you do the same, very interesting time, where the easy money disappeared from markets and people will likely get schooled time and time again trying to gamble in the same garbage names as between 2020 and 2022.
Stay safe out there!
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
