The Second Greatest Short Of All TimeHello friends. You surely remember when I created my idea "The Greatest Short of All Time". And it was. XLE proceeded to print a mind-shattering collapse, exactly as I had forseen. But now, we have had a pullback as expected and it is time for a new short.
There are several reasons why energy is bearish now.
For one, there is a highly bearish seasonal window which we are entering right now for gasoline
On top of this, Natural Gas just formed a Scam Top pattern and is hurtling towards the downside rapidly
Rates continue to rise, and inflation has obviously peaked at this point, with the latest CPI reading at a flat 0% and future readings quite possibly geared up to start bleeding into the negatives. Kalshi predicts an annual inflation between 7.0-7.9%. I think it's more likely to be even lower, but even Kalshi's conservative estimate would already be a decrease in inflation for this year
There appear to be some large trader purchasing massive amounts of puts on XLE
Insiders also have not eased off even a bit and are still selling XLE hand over fist
We will play this idea by purchasing a reasonable amount of XLE puts which are dated to expire on September 30th and have a strike price at $80.
I have a feeling that guy who shit all over every one of my energy short ideas, saying it was impossible for XLE to collapse, is now resting peacefully 6 feet under. But if you are him and reading this, I just want to give you a huge L. You deserve it.
Thanks for playing.
