look this guys xlf EXAMPLE
Say u ahrt at 38 off daily stoch rolling over and it made a lower high hitting resistance
ok so know shrt off daily why hitting r1 and stoch rolling over. what i do next is watch my weekly and I wait for that stoch break 70-68% weekly stoch on bottom then i can add why trend down
ok drop to 35.18 daily stoch on bottom so u take 3/4 off the short keep 1/4 on
know she runs up daily stoch and boom stops at 50 day, but as she is running up look weekly stoch when it hit 50 day ma weekly stoch heading down and little tip stoch wide apart very neg, so it said stay shrt once it did not break thru add back on the 3/4 took off. Dont get scared out position this is for swing trading
XLF trade ideas
XLF STAYING SHORT @ 36.60 smallDaily say wants to go higher but again look vol bad and under the 50 day MA.
Ok again daily stoch weekly bottom
see how the daily going up and weekly heading down that is called a head fake rally
why weekly holds more weight its heading south TRUST THAT WEEKLY
it never lies.
TA on IWM shortIWM a short I am not in this just showing TA
Look daily heading down on bottom should get a dead cat
bounce to the 50 day 225 support 213.58 -211.54
they break we go 206.55 200 day
Know look weekly stoch heading south trend is down
Ok lets go back to daily we can get a rally dead cat bounce 50 day
and fail why as long as that weekly stoch stays heading down while the daily
stoch rises it will fail. Trust that weekly just when it rallies reduce shares on short and trail the rest
then when ready add back to short. Very simple process
New Trend (Directional Bias)I have developed to Simply your lifeNotice is the difference between the other trend indicators available in the market vs the new and improved directional bias indicator. I have prepared to help my friends in this community.
It keeps you in the trade when you have to, not exit you out when there is a short pull back. However, when the pullback is not a fake one, It pulls you out.
FEEDBACK PLS.
I miss this stuff.
Financials suggessting yields aren't going to completely pukeI'm still bullish Financials, for now at least. Macro data is still showing growth and inflation rising (quad 2) but we will run out of runway on that as we move into 2nd half of the year proper.
Momentum is still to the upside, and may have bottomed for now. Also, we are rising on lower volumes last couple of days.
Let's see.
XLF STAYING SHORT @ 37.42In these charts I am going show u how I play the weekly stoch and how I am never late.
37.42 I am short. Look at daily stoch heading down and look weekly heading down. So what weekly does allows me stay in trade longer I am never late if anything I get in to early
Daily stoch heading up but weekly stoch heading down.. Its called a snap back into a down trend.
XLF - IWM fractalXLF has been following a perfect IWM fractal so far. i overlayed IWM recent accumulation pattern on xlf. Lines up with what i think will be a further rotation away from value and into tech/growth next few weeks. accumulated longs at the lows last friday, and will leg into couple month out calls if it can consolidate like this.
The Credit Cycle - Free Wealth is Over?Idea for Macro:
- Financial sector selling off heavily.
- While it's early to call a bear market, the exhaustion gap at an all time high is a reasonable signal for market reversal.
- XLF, XLE and FAAMG have been holding up the broader markets at this high... Cracks appearing?
Underlying conditions:
- Institutions will invest based on 18 months into the future (Druckenmiller).
- There are 3 relevant possibilities for the banks:
(1) Inflation is sticky, interest rates will be raised in the future, within 18 months. This actually increases the banking sector's profitability, but the price is declining because they have been speculated above valuations.
(2) Inflation is transitory, interest rates will not be raised, and we will have negative real rates. This will hurt the banks' profit margins. This is a possibility due to the 40 year demand-push deflation the US has been in (see Oil/CPI).
(3) More importantly, the economy will decelerate (deflationary). Liquidity components of the Fed B/S have been decelerating and global credit impulse (lending) has gone negative. No more easy lending, less loans, meaning less earnings for the banks. Investors know this and are exiting the overheated trade.
Either way for inflation, global liquidity and global credit impulse are turning down, so the Long Volatility trade seems to be ideal.
Why did global risk assets rise to such insane levels? Credit impulse - easy lending. Now that supply of sugar is gone. Only one thing left that can happen.
GLHF
- DPT