One month performance $SPX $XLF $XLE $XLK $XLY One month performance
$SPX $XLF $XLE $XLK $XLY
$XLE & $XLF explains most of the $SPX performance of the past month but they are starting to roll over.
Rotation back into tech?
XLF trade ideas
No SLR tread carefully on XLF and Banks in generalTypical recovery play, October/November seems to have been the best time to go long anything. On the shorter term, XLF is bouncing off a bullish trendline, with over all a very decent bullish channel on the longer time frame.
However, this looks awfully similar to my ARKF play, where it had a similar set up, but cratered into the Earth's core. Jpow and friends have stopped SLR for now, which is bullish on the economy as it indicates less relief is needed, but I think it can be very bearish for the stock market. Since banks don't have all the free cash, capital requirements may now make the banks liquidate some assets.
I want leaps on XLF, as value play benefits seem to outweight high growth tech stocks right now with the looming fears in inflation and the Fed raising interest rates. Realistically, nothing is safe right now and I'd be very careful with long positioning.
Bullish reasonings, stimmy, a fat injection of cash. Things are reopening, vaccine outlook is great. Even some banks are buying Crypto too. My ARKF ideas may or may not have been tagged NSFW.
$XLF holding some puts here...$33 3/31 puts as a hedge, if fed isn't raising rates, banks should begin to pull back...
XLF in bearish technical postureFinancial sector, XLF, has been outperforming other sectors in S&P as what seems to be a sector rotation is taking place. Money is coming out of technology to more defensive sectors recently. Nevertheless, when I look at this XLF chart, it is screamingly bearish. Bearish rising wedge with negative divergence on both PPO and RSI. It is pretty extended as well. It's right on the trend line. One big red day may just break it or a gap down on the bad news despite what happened during FOMC meeting today.
Have a good trade everyone,
T.
Time to test the 200 Daily SMADivergences in the momo indicators. I am thinking a deep pullback to 200 Daily SMA, the red MA on the chart. Nicely lines up with SPY in the previous idea. Either all of these indexes will honor the divergences or none will. What do you think?
$XLF financials will be my hedge...always need a few, like this for a pull back, if good for the market...
Elliott Wave View: XLF Pullback to Stay SupportedShort term Elliott Wave View suggests that the rally from September 2020 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. The 1 hour chart below shows wave (3) of this impulse ended at 35.2. Wave 4 of (3) ended at 32.16, and the rally in wave 5 of (3) unfolded as an impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 33.95, and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 32.60. The ETF resumed higher in wave ((iii)) towards 34.58 and wave ((iv)) pullback ended at 33.52. Final leg higher wave ((v)) of 5 ended at 35.20 which also completed wave (3) in higher degree.
Wave (4) pullback is now in progress to correct cycle from January 29 low before the rally resumes. Structure of the pullback is proposed to unfold as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure where wave A ended at 34.25. Expect the ETF to rally in wave B then turn lower in wave C of (4). Afterwards, expect the ETF to resume higher again. As far as pivot at 32.16 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside. Potential target to the upside is the 100% fibonacci extension of wave (1)-(2) from September 2020 low at 37.54.
XLF beats QQQFinancial sector overpreform Tech since Feb 2021 and reached resistance level of April 2020
XLFLooks more like a continuation pattern and not a reversal. Bought a few weekly calls with today's day trading profits.
Banks need to retraceWith a bear flag i can see banks retracing to fill some gaps. Then a new leg up will emerge
XLF shooting star top of channel $BAC $WFC $CIT $JPM $XLFtop of channel / ABC or WXY complete from march lows after triangle breakout in late oct/early november. shooting star weekly. please post and correct me but zooming out i think its 5-3-5 ABC for W (2009 low to jan 2018) into an X wave and now completed X within WXY of the X macro..startin Y down to finish macro X.
August 20 $23P on $BAC for me but this thing might take longer than I expect considering W (within macro X of WXY from 09 low) went from jan 2018 - march 2020
$xlf looking to go the distance distance $xlf real bullish on the financial sectors currently thinking 38% should start going back to treasury bonds and finances.
XLF: The Best ValueOn the back of a rotation to value and steepening interest rates financials make a fundamentally good play if you want to be long in the stock market.
We are breaking the last prior high with renewed momentum and signs of accumulation throughout the complex.
XLF... Financial sector holding up market, not techOddly enough, for the month on February, Financials have been holding up the equity market, as Technology is rotating out in a retracement.
This may also mean that any perturbation on the Financial sector, could crumble the indexes.
Watch this space...
Something to Watchno confirmation = no trade
no profit margin = no trade
must get a confirmation on LTF
Either 15M Timeframe or 10M or 5M
we must get a change of trend on those timeframes like price coming into the zone with LL/LH and we need HH/HL To come in!
that's how i enter 99% of my trades
Financial ETF Is Attempting a Historic BreakoutThe SPDR Financial ETF quietly did something historic last week: It closed at the highest price ever.
This is a big deal because XLF has been trapped at resistance running back to 2007 (before the subprime crisis). It was trying to break the old highs around $31 exactly a year ago, then lost 44 percent of its value when the pandemic hit.
XLF jumped early this year to test those levels, retreated to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and quickly rebounded. Traders will now be watching to see if price can escape from the tight consolidation pattern between about $31 and $31.60.
Fundamentals could be more positive than a year ago because the yield curve has steepened dramatically. (The difference between 2-year and 10-year Treasuries has increased from about 20 basis points in February 2020 to about 110 basis points.)
The higher long-term rates result from the stronger economic backdrop (also displayed by oil prices). That healthier economy offers two other potential benefits to banks: more lending and fewer loan defaults.
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Are Financials going to lead the recovery in 2021?With how rates are moving, it seems almost silly to bet against a US recovery. Banks are the place to be in 2021
Call Ratio Spread - Long 2 Jan2023 40C Short 1 Jan2023 45C
XLF ...at resistance now..false breakout.....could be forming. The next open session should push prices higher before correcting....
XLF breaking out?Once XLF closes above trend line on weekly chart and opens Monday 2/15/21 higher than Friday's 2/12/21 close I am expecting a breakout. I will be buying September out of the money options around $34. Right now they are $1.20. It could possibly 3x in relativity short period of time. If it is rejected at trend line it could be a triple top and get slapped down pretty hard. I am leaning towards a breakout. I am not a financial advisor. Do your own DD.
Financials approach huge breakoutThe Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) is near a breakout from a long base which favors long-term upside.
Previous rallies in early 2018 and 2020 stalled out near the pre-financial crisis peak from 2007 near $31. Now, in early 2021, we see another attempt to stage a major upside breakout, which would confirm a massive 14-year base. A move through the $31.40 area would be the signal, though I will be waiting for a break of $32 for confirmation. Banks have enjoyed a run with rising long-term rates, and net interest margins should improve as the yield curve continues to steepen.
However, a lot hinges upon whether the U.S. economic reopening and rebound can continue. January saw a surge in corporate bankruptcies; while Congress recently confirmed that there will be no stimulus in February, pushing much-needed economic assistance for individuals and small businesses out to mid-March at best. For now, I do like this group short-term - we are seeing good technical price action in stocks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Bank of America (BAC). But intermediate term, it's got to prove that this rally has legs, and that could be a tall task.
If you are betting on a strong recovery, consider these financial stocks with bullish charts: Blackstone (BX), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Charles Schwab (SCHW).
