XLF trade ideas
TRADE IDEA: XLF AUGUST 21ST 20/23/24/27 IRON FLY... for a 1.51 credit (.38 at 25% max).
Notes: 5 out of XLF's top 10 holdings announce next week, so this is a way to get a piece of that volatility without getting into single name, with a classic risk one to make one iron fly setup. I've split the shorties across current price, but would look to take profit at 25% max, as you would with a short straddle/iron fly. Naturally, you may have to adjust the strikes, depending on what XLF does early in the week.
For those who like to trade naked, the August 21st 23/24 skinny short strangle was paying 1.90 (.48 at 25% max) as of Friday close.
XLF Analysis XLF Bullish Confluence across TA, Dark Pool orders, Options Flow and Volume ( Contracts to buy 7/17 25c or 10/16 28c)
Volume Before Close: 1min-2.633M (1st), 5min-5.298M (1st), 15min-9.295M (3rd)
Dark Pool Orders: 6 Orders (144 Million)
Options Flow: 9 Sweep Orders (654,000) 3 Block Orders (365,000)
No Bearish Flow
TA Below
The most important picture of allWhile most traders and market analysts seem to be glued to the short term, I believe this longer term picture of the financial sector is crucial. In my eyes, the structure that has formed since the Feb 2020 top greatly resembles the topping pattern of the GFC with respect to price action and RSI divergence, except it is clearly a larger structure. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that the market is about to resume its descent with much greater intensity within a couple weeks. If we are lucky, then it will eventually be supported by the 2008 lows. However, I do see the possibility that this will become a degree of crash greater than the GFC, comparable to 1929 or even greater than 1929, especially because the initial selloff volume spike was so large.
IMHO, the most unlikely scenario is this 'V' shaped new bull market scenario that the majority seem to be adopting now. Economic fundamentals are too trashed, and bullish sentiment and speculation is much too extreme for that to happen right now. There are basically 6 stocks holding up the entire market at this moment and they are about to top according to Elliott analysis. This entire rally seems to be all hype with no reality priced in.
XLF also looks good on dailyBut likely up first then down and close the week in green. So don't be too greedy on weeklies.
$XLF Long - Three Inside UpThree Inside Up pattern observed on the 4-hour chart of XLF. This is a bullish reversal pattern.
Trump taxes, S&P 500 and FED Balance sheetS&P 500 finally has a setup. And FED balance sheet is magically still going down. Let's get in here.
In the news now, we see that Trump's tax returns may be made public, but probably not, at least not before the election. But the real news now is the liquidity. FED isn't printing. Congress hasn't started flooding liquidity from the Treasury General Account.
XLF Almost time :)
Which way will this go?
imo best to wait for a secondary confirmation as HP always says
Financial Sector Made a Decision TodayThis is the XLF chart at the 30 minute view. The XLF made a decision today between a downtrend resistance and a rising support.
It chose to rally with the banks' earning season coming up. That's what caused the ES to pop up in the afternoon.
Buy Financial ahead of earningsFinancials showed relative strength with sales growth expectations above other sectors according to UBS June CEO survey
$XLF Long - Potential 5th WaveOn the 4-hour chart, the price poked its head up above the desc wedge that has been forming. I believe we have seen waves 1-4, as noted in the chart. I went long financials today for a potential wave 5.
XLF Short Position, !Copper Longs; 12:54:50 (UTC) Mon Jun 29, 20With lumber up 2.3%, copper has made a new higher high and I am not bullish on copper, for the current bullish phase transition to bullish. This relates to the fact that we should see nominal GDP remain muted, thus causing stagflationary economic environment for the time being.
13:05:08 (UTC)
Mon Jun 29, 2020
XLF is ready for a bounce!!!I went long at Fridays Close and bought some FAS. Little red right now but I'm expecting a nice rally next week or even Gap Up Monday! \
I'm seeing nice bullish divergence on the hourly and 4 hour charts. If it burns through its Bearish as hell!!!
XLF - banks not looking good 6-12moPotential for a fakeout here but my hypothesis is that we see new local lows on XLF by the end of 2020. You may think the banking sector looks poised for a rebound if you look at the weekly candles, but the monthly candles look like this dump could just be getting started.
Short XLF
Entry: $23-25
Stop: 26.50
Target: $18.50 - $13
Assess in October, adjust 18.50
HEADS UP.......THINGS ARE ABOUT TO TURN I stopped posting a while back cause markets were no longer markets. Now I see what is developing and its going to be a big problem.
XLFRejected by cloud bottom and then rejected by long term trend line. Breaking down 23 triggers short.
