XLF trade ideas
XLF failed breakoutXLF has failed its breakout and lost the 20 dma on heavy volume. Seems to be reacting to the expectation of more rate cuts which are not favorable for banks. Looks like it could sell off into the 200 dma which has some confluent fib zones and is at a price volume pivot.
Financials - Upward BreakoutFinancials broke out of its recent range today, entered half position in $FAS and will enter the other half on tomorrow retrace if there is one.
If not, will look at how the price action plays out. More updates to follow.
FINANCIALS JULY MONTHLY 2019 (DETAILED-END OF THE CYCLE TA)One major detail that stands out is the 30-31$ resistance. In order to continue its bullish run it must close above these levels.
Although this might be a tough task since we are in the late stages of the cycle. My focus in the next year will be this exact sector, since most banks will not be able to hit the same profit margins due to the inversion in the T. bonds yield curve(unless they take on more leverage).
Systematic risk(Beta) has overall increased, because of the trade uncertainties with China.
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XLF ShortBought weekly puts here cheap. Looks toppy, hit resistance, and why the heck are financials rallying while rates are inverted?!?!
Small position.
xlf in a popular retreat zone. may be good hedge, or shortHeres some interesting spots on chart. xlf been lagging. similar to iwm.. which looked to be backing out of similar resistance zones.
May pickup some puts to add to my rally for nothing hedge.. Keep waiting to hear why we're back up here. fed rate that never changed? trump deals that never get made? earnings revisions everywhere.. so much debt.. etc
Seems this or iwm reacts stronger to downside, vs spy or vti.. Some may consider this a warning that there is downside risk mounting.. others on the trump train just see more money to harvest. Not sure where i stand. I guess id say im not convinced. But eager to see what happens.
Double Top and profit taking XLF has reached to the final target zone of a bullish setup (posted in my Facebook page)
Now, with a double and a resistance zone, we can see some pullback (or even a strong bearish wave).
This can be a warning signal for stocks...
SPX also struggles to close in new records highs territory - Back below 2960 and generates a potential false break and a potential daily Pinbar (still a couple of hours to the daily close)
Warning Warning Warning - Trump and Powel in need for the rescue
XLF: Strong buy opportunity.The Financial Select Sector SPDR is trading within t 1D Channel Up (RSI = 64.631, MACD = 0.090, Highs/Lows = 0.4050) and todays pull back is only a technical reaction to the RSI approaching 70.000 on 4H. Both the MA50 and MA200 are supporting which is a very bullish development. Our TP is 29.10.
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US financials bearish outlookNot an easy call. Technically it is more probable XLF to break the upper trend line and resume the bullish trend. But this is end of cycle so the upside is limited in my view with the rates being sqeezed, FED balance sheet tightening.
not feelin JPbanks aren't feelin the fed at all, lose that 50 day and im short. smell a hard fade comin.
good level to be short against in banksus banks know theyll soon be going the way of european banks, with rates at 0 even negativefor an extended time. Central bank manipulation may boost loss making tech stocks, but financials going the way of the dinosaur
XLF 21-Jun-19 Call Credit SpreadXLF 21-Jun-19 Call Credit Spread
30-Day IV: 19.0 +0.6
IV Pct Rank: 74% Elevated
+0.31D Long 1 Call: 27 Strike @ $0.24
-0.62D Short 1 Call: 26 Strike @ $0.77
-0.31D Credit: $0.53
Trigger: Unusual Option Volume
Target: 50% Credit or 11-Jun-19
Short XLFLow rate environment and flat yield curve have created an unprofitable environment for banks and financials.
In addition the recently dovish fed in a still tight labor market will likely increase inflation and marginal costs weighing on financial's and corporate companies' alike profit margins. These factors will make earnings and guidance difficult this coming earnings season (april-may).
From a technical perspective the financials have rallied with the market since the Dec. 24 bottom. XLF has underperformed as rates have fallen and now is hitting fibonacci resistance making a lower high with hidden negative divergences on the daily chart. AMEX:XLF
Expect momentum to turn downward and earnings and guidance through april and may to only serve as a catalyst for lower prices in the financials sector.
Banks crash into potential supportXLF is down 3% today following China's Tariffs.
The ETF is now testing a potential support zone that includes several trend lines and the 200 days SMA line.
XLF ETF: Sell opportunity on 1D. A Golden Cross took place (MA50 crossing over the MA200) on 1D on the XLF. Although this is theoretically a bullish development, its has been bearish on 1D in the last two times that this was spotted. In fact the price lost around -3% from the top candle of the Golden Cross until it touched the MA50 again. This gives us a roughly 1 week window and short opportunity.
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XLF is hotNice break out from XLF recently. After earnings and the S&P hitting ATHs, the this sector is doing great. Also the 50/200 MA "golden cross" is becoming likely. I've got some long dated calls on this one.
XLF = f(Fed decision)?XLF has been lagging.
Technically is in good position to start moving up to next level.
Watching how fed decision may affect this ETF & market. The meeting is this week Tue-Wed.
XLF (Select SPDR Financial) ETF settings up for a breakoutIt is nice to be prepared for what could come. The AMEX:XLF is definitely setting itself up nicely for a bullish move.
Yesterday, we had a moving average cross over and the price is pulling back off an establish resistance zone. A breakout here could make for a great bullish swing trade.
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