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SPDR Select Sector Fund - Financial

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XLF trade ideas

Short XLFLow rate environment and flat yield curve have created an unprofitable environment for banks and financials. In addition the recently dovish fed in a still tight labor market will likely increase inflation and marginal costs weighing on financial's and corporate companies' alike profit margins. These factors will make earnings and guidance difficult this coming earnings season (april-may). From a technical perspective the financials have rallied with the market since the Dec. 24 bottom. XLF has underperformed as rates have fallen and now is hitting fibonacci resistance making a lower high with hidden negative divergences on the daily chart. AMEX:XLF Expect momentum to turn downward and earnings and guidance through april and may to only serve as a catalyst for lower prices in the financials sector.
AMEX:XLFShort
by Zacrichards02
XLF ETF: Sell opportunity on 1D. A Golden Cross took place (MA50 crossing over the MA200) on 1D on the XLF. Although this is theoretically a bullish development, its has been bearish on 1D in the last two times that this was spotted. In fact the price lost around -3% from the top candle of the Golden Cross until it touched the MA50 again. This gives us a roughly 1 week window and short opportunity. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
AMEX:XLFShort
by InvestingScope
XLF is going to take a nosedive as the US turns dovishRight, a bit of a congested chart... In white, we have $XLF, purple, the US unemployment rate, orange is the European bank index and in yellow, we have the effective Fed Funds rate (US interest rate). Recent rhetoric from the Fed has been pretty dovish, and we have had a pause in hiking rates, with there likely to be absolutely no hike this year. If an economy that is apparently 'doing well' cannot afford a rate hike, is there not something seriously wrong? Let's take the European banks... Since the crisis, they've experienced negative rates whilst the US has had positive real rates... See, banks like interest rates. It allows them to make money, and allows for productive lending since there is not adverse selection when it comes to borrowers. The Fed is about to follow the ECB's lead... I think Fed member Williams said they could go to negative rates if needed... Which is crazy, since all they end up doing is creating zombie firms. So let's get this idea set... The Fed are pausing with rate hikes... They're likely to stop the balance sheet run off... And unemployment is at a record low... Every time the Fed has stopped their rate hike cycle, unemployment has increased and XLF has fallen off... Is that a decent enough thesis to get short if we start seeing unemployment data tick up? Well, we already have... we've just had the highest Q1 layoffs in the US since the financial crisis... Buckle up!
AMEX:XLFShort
by FinkPro
Complex Inverse Head & Shoulders on the XLF. Could rally higher.The XLF is currently forming what appears to be a complex inverse head and shoulders pattern. As it sits right now, price is holding between the 50 and 200 day moving averages (50 day acting as support, 200 day acting as resistance) and we could be setting up for a golden cross (50 MA crossing the 200 MA) into an eventual retest of the neckline of this complex inverse head and shoulders pattern which is around $27.10. The neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern can be drawn a few ways. I have the neckline around $27.10, but I can see arguments for $27.50. Regardless, I either want to see a break-out above the neckline with volume, or a break-out into a retest of the neckline as new support before consolidating and eventually moving higher. Moving average guide (All daily for this post): 50 day moving average in Green. 100 day moving average in Yellow. 200 day moving average in Red. -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
AMEX:XLFLong
by Deftsuo
This is nuts XLF Fed is wrong, and the markets know itSo, if you look at XLF, Never fully recover since the financial crisis, so the big jump in Yields, since 2017 trump presidence is back where all rally started, the weird thing is that correlation bewteen yields, and bank stocks was right in dicember and these 5 month rally, in anticipation of earning is not price in, earning cuts, honestly did you know that banks, make less money when yields are below 3%, so the last year speculators, told that 10 yield could be 4.5% in what universe thats is going to happen? people dont see it yet,im scare how reckless banks and fund managers has been in the last 5 months all because of china trade deal like, tax cut 2018, always a reason to keep these bubble higher than ever, these distorsions of reality is what make vix explotions, is like there is not risk at all, these time are full controversial because there has been low volume, if these low volume extend, we could have liquidity problems, i honestly dont know if we are near or close to a recession, but in fact is when the fed tell that we have a recession is already too late, Germany near recession, japan, near recession, the bigger risk that all world market is that there is a deflation risk, because of these stupid monetary policys, is like a cocaine that markets coudnt live without, i dont Know when markets are going to pull the trigger but im not long term these market at all, in fact that all these gains of 2019 are superficial and artificial, all manipulation the same manipulators are back in, shorting the vix, until the whole thing implode, if you are a long term investor, look at perspective where you are now, where you want to be meanwhile, i will be ready to short the hell of these bubble. Becareful traders. GL
AMEX:XLFShort
by Kanon8260