Financials Earnings?WHy is this in the green after a couple bad reports? I dunno, short it. WFC isn't going to do any better.
XLF trade ideas
SPDR SELECT SECTOR FUND (XLF): Pivots, Supports & ResistencesFind Winning Trades In Seconds >> efcindicator.com (Special Discount)
SPDR SELECT SECTOR FUND (XLF): All The Pivots, Supports & Resistences
SPY, QQQ, and XLF face key resistance tests this coming weekThe oversold bounce is real and bulls have changed the daily trends to their favour, but the weekly trends have yet to change. Here's what I'm looking for heading into next week - We have tight ranges on SPY, Tech and Financial sectors and the breaks of these ranges will give us clues for what to expect this coming week
XLT SHORTEntered yesterday and position, via options, and ended up about where we entered minus a few $ for commissions and option spreads.
Today on 195 minute bars we see a 50% retracement from yesterday, the price just at LT resistance and a very tight triangle. Plan to go short at 24.02 with target around $22 or lower.
Interest rates don't matter for XLF, lolSo here we are, right back to the same price level as the last Fed rate announcement. Complete retrace of the tank for XLF, along with AMZN. In fact, retail XRT is actually higher than it was before the announcement, because apparently neither banks nor retail care about interest rates, lol. Look at HYG, corporate bonds are right back up there as well.
If the market makes any sense, this will trade between here and $22 for a while then H&S down to $19 eventually. However, nothing seems very logical in this market (look at the price action on GOOGL), for all I know, they can jack the market right back up.
My best guess is a down week next week with a possible double bottom the following week (see my SPY post). I doubt they can jack up the Dow by 800 pts again next week, so at least there's a chance that crappy stocks will go down. Let's just hope they don;t melt the market up like last January.
XLF shortXLF in downtrend
Retraces to form triangle
Cannot close convincingly above blue trend line.
Stops at previous support which is now resistance and at 0.786 retracement
Fractal flow shows down turn.
Conservative entry is for it to break lower border of triangle, aggressive is for it to breat last 130 bar.
SL just above yesterday's high.
Frst TP it at 22.11
TRADE IDEA: XLF JUNE 21ST/FEB 15TH 21/24 UPWARD CALL DIAGONALMetrics:
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect on Setup: 2.18/contract
Max Profit on Setup: .82/contract
Break Even: 23.18 vs. 22.81 spot
Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 72.7%
Theta: .26
Delta: 37.46
Notes: Here, I'm just shopping around for particularly weak sectors in which to put on bullish assumption plays that will have plenty of time to work out and/or reduce cost basis in. Typically, I shoot for a break even at or below where the underlying is currently trading, but am settling for a <75% debit paid to spread width ratio with a less than ideal break even here than what I typically do. Consequently, I'm paying less at the door than I ordinarily would, but still have a shot at getting a 27.3% return on cap invested in the event price finishes below the short call.
Banks below the 200 weeks MA lineIt is Christmas Eve and trading volume is thin... but XLK just crossed below the 200 weeks MA line.
If it will close the week this way, it will be another bearish sign for U.S stocks.
Impending Recession?Quick TA on XLF, we see a clear double topping pattern, looking for the short term moving average in green / or support from the uptrend channel.
We should expect a bounce or bear flag formation. It this fails on support, likely to capitulate downwards toward $16. Stochastic RSI remains bearish at least for now.
When XLF recovers, they all recoverXLF is at the bottom of a channel from 2012. The fact that we are there is a positive for the whole market.
$XLF Financials ETF - Oversold at Support$XLF Financials ETF - Looking oversold on the daily chart after closing red or flat for 8 straight trading days. Ending the day today right at a key support level just under $24. A bounce in the coming days definitely hinges on the FED not raising rates tomorrow . If they do nothing, I expect a near term price recovery in the XLF back to the $25-$26 range by year end.
With a lot of people expecting the worst, call options are looking fairly cheap in my opinion. I'm looking at the Dec 31st $24.00 strike calls that closed today around 40 cents. With a break even (excl. commissions) of $24.40 and the ETF closing today at $23.91, you would only need a ~2.1% move up from today's close to reach break even and you have about two weeks to do so. Depending on your risk appetite, you could move to the higher delta ITM (in-the-money) calls if you prefer.
If the FED does end up raising rates tomorrow, I think we could easily see $23 or worse by year end. Hedging with a straddle or strangle options play would probably be the smartest approach. But as in everything, higher the risk higher the reward.
Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
S&P500 breaks very key weekly supportsLowest close on the S&P500 in 15 months as very key weekly support levels were broken today. We're now staring down at the low of the February dump as my line in the sand for the bulls.
2019 Financial super crisisEven with the earning season we are in right now, does it even matter? If there isnt enough liquidity in the market? In my opinion every pop to the upside is an oppurtunity to just sell from higher prices.
Financials SectorWhats up traders,
Most of the explanation is on the chart - pretty self evident what i am looking at.
SPY low of day is key support tomorrowPotential hourly bear flag setups tomorrow in SPY, QQQ and XLF. Low of today will be key support for tomorrow
Market dumps as bears eye key supportsChecking in on SPY, QQQ and XLF. SPY and tech sectors looking to test recent weekly supports, meanwhile the financial sector lost that support today and has only the low of October left. In my opinion these supports are must hold levels for the market and the two largest sectors in the S&P500
XLF Double Top?Seems like we're done with another real estate and stock market bubble, could be a double top on XLF.
#SP500 Sectors identical path to #SPX - #XLI #XLF and #XLK Just another indicator, they are sectors within the SPX, so they should follow the index, but these sectors are showing the path.
Market resistances are clear on every time frameSPY closed at the low of the week with only the low of October 259.85 as support, and we are likely to test that level first thing next week. It's clear the MA20 on every timeframe is important for SPY, and both the tech and financial sectors and this has been rejecting every bounce attempt on every timeframe so far.
Bears have the momentum on every timeframe; we're watching for changes of 4 hour trends and until then, the bulls are proving nothing to us
My outlook on XLFFor some reason today I took out the chart on XLF and saw my wave projection which I outlined after the materialization of wave 3 and was very surprised. We have a very nice red 9 setup to lock in wave 4. Price is now heading to finish wave 5 at around $24.
I was about to re adjust the wave 4 to fit in the realistic price action but somehow felt that it is better to leave the wave projection as is.
I look forward to seeing wave 5 being achieved. The trade idea is invalidated when price breaks above wave 4.
For those Elliott Wave Theory users please note that I am not utilizing the original Elliott Wave Theory rules. I follow a mechanized version of Elliott Wave created by Mr. Tom Demark which abides different ruleset.
Anyways, stay safe out there and good luck trading.
