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XLF trade ideas

TRADE IDEA: XLF JUNE 21ST/FEB 15TH 21/24 UPWARD CALL DIAGONALMetrics: Max Loss/Buying Power Effect on Setup: 2.18/contract Max Profit on Setup: .82/contract Break Even: 23.18 vs. 22.81 spot Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 72.7% Theta: .26 Delta: 37.46 Notes: Here, I'm just shopping around for particularly weak sectors in which to put on bullish assumption plays that will have plenty of time to work out and/or reduce cost basis in. Typically, I shoot for a break even at or below where the underlying is currently trading, but am settling for a <75% debit paid to spread width ratio with a less than ideal break even here than what I typically do. Consequently, I'm paying less at the door than I ordinarily would, but still have a shot at getting a 27.3% return on cap invested in the event price finishes below the short call.
AMEX:XLFLong
by NaughtyPines
$XLF Financials ETF - Oversold at Support$XLF Financials ETF - Looking oversold on the daily chart after closing red or flat for 8 straight trading days. Ending the day today right at a key support level just under $24. A bounce in the coming days definitely hinges on the FED not raising rates tomorrow . If they do nothing, I expect a near term price recovery in the XLF back to the $25-$26 range by year end. With a lot of people expecting the worst, call options are looking fairly cheap in my opinion. I'm looking at the Dec 31st $24.00 strike calls that closed today around 40 cents. With a break even (excl. commissions) of $24.40 and the ETF closing today at $23.91, you would only need a ~2.1% move up from today's close to reach break even and you have about two weeks to do so. Depending on your risk appetite, you could move to the higher delta ITM (in-the-money) calls if you prefer. If the FED does end up raising rates tomorrow, I think we could easily see $23 or worse by year end. Hedging with a straddle or strangle options play would probably be the smartest approach. But as in everything, higher the risk higher the reward. Note: Informational analysis, not investment advice.
AMEX:XLFLong
by Triple_Barrel_Capital
Market resistances are clear on every time frameSPY closed at the low of the week with only the low of October 259.85 as support, and we are likely to test that level first thing next week. It's clear the MA20 on every timeframe is important for SPY, and both the tech and financial sectors and this has been rejecting every bounce attempt on every timeframe so far. Bears have the momentum on every timeframe; we're watching for changes of 4 hour trends and until then, the bulls are proving nothing to us
AMEX:XLF
by McGuireTO
1
My outlook on XLFFor some reason today I took out the chart on XLF and saw my wave projection which I outlined after the materialization of wave 3 and was very surprised. We have a very nice red 9 setup to lock in wave 4. Price is now heading to finish wave 5 at around $24. I was about to re adjust the wave 4 to fit in the realistic price action but somehow felt that it is better to leave the wave projection as is. I look forward to seeing wave 5 being achieved. The trade idea is invalidated when price breaks above wave 4. For those Elliott Wave Theory users please note that I am not utilizing the original Elliott Wave Theory rules. I follow a mechanized version of Elliott Wave created by Mr. Tom Demark which abides different ruleset. Anyways, stay safe out there and good luck trading.
AMEX:XLFShort
by kidze
Confirming The Decline..Big Money Banks Stocks Rolling OverBig Money Bank Stocks, Wall Streets most important and pretigious stock group are once again confirming the renewed sharp selloff, and breakdown in the stock market. Goldman Sachs, the crown jewel of investment banking, and the leading large cap stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down over 7 % today ! You should always pay attention to the financials,large cap bank stocks. They hold an important key. If the banks in XLF roll over from these levels, then you will have quantified evidence, that something very serious is once again going on, that you might not be aware of. Big money, sometimes called the "smart money..." is always the first, and perhaps the most important money,. to leave the stock market. Shouldn't you follow their lead... ? THE_UNWIND 11/12/18 540 PM NEW YORK
AMEX:XLFShort
by The_Unwind
2
XLF 1Nice correction across all sectors, however I am fairly bullish off of strong economic data, and especially considering rising interest rates (great for the financial sector). Personally (not well justified) I believe the current unrest in the market is overblown especially for US equities. With BAC and GS also beating estimates and a large portion of the S&P500 reporting within the next few weeks (AMTD, COF soon) I believe underlying sentiment will be reset and the current worries will be swept under the rug. Not necessarily new all time highs but I see a fair margin of upside. Holding Jan/19 XLFc55, looking to close early-mid November.
AMEX:XLFLong
by CappedHaddock