XLF - US Financials - bullishAnother US sector chart that could be seeing a bullish 5th wave going forward. The scary thing about these counts is that perhaps they are a little too obvious!
XLF trade ideas
Failed Breakdown, BullishFinancials lost key support on a large gap down.
They then had a large gap up back above that key support.
This is a textbook failed brekdown. Use the island gap levels to set your risk.
5 down in XLF... but the real question is: is it over or not. There is no notable momentum divergence, or any other indication pricewise. Sentiment is negative, but that is clearly not enough to declare the move complete.
XLF coming back ?Inside day . Bouncy at support here and noticeable divergence. Entry above today's high
XLF 1Nice correction across all sectors, however I am fairly bullish off of strong economic data, and especially considering rising interest rates (great for the financial sector). Personally (not well justified) I believe the current unrest in the market is overblown especially for US equities. With BAC and GS also beating estimates and a large portion of the S&P500 reporting within the next few weeks (AMTD, COF soon) I believe underlying sentiment will be reset and the current worries will be swept under the rug. Not necessarily new all time highs but I see a fair margin of upside. Holding Jan/19 XLFc55, looking to close early-mid November.
When Banks Lead The Decline..., Pay Heed !Institutional BIG MONEY took advantage of the overnight bounce in China,
to LIQUIDATE large amounts of stock from US banks and the important financial stocks
in the XLF on 10/22/18, putting price right down to important support, after a loss of 2 % today.
The significance of what happens next this week in the banks, cannot be overstated.
A break of support here,in XLF right now, would have serious implications for the rest of the market.
THE_UNWIND
XLF - also looking quite bullishTo add to the fuel from XLI, we also have fuel from XLF, to drive the market higher
THE WEEK AHEAD: DAL, C, JPM, WFC EARNINGS; EWZ, TLT/TBTAlthough the earnings season has already kicked off modestly, a bevvy of financials announce next week: C, JPM, and WFC (all on Friday). I generally don't play these underlyings for volatility contraction around earnings primarily because the implied volatility just doesn't ramp up to the degree I'd like to see for a play. I thought I'd mention them here since there will be possible broad sector (XLF) impact depending on how these earnings go -- i.e., there could be a play that develops in one of these underlyings post-announcement or in the sector as a whole that may be worth playing.
Other Earnings: DAL (rank 41/30-day 32) announces earnings on Thursday before market open. The metrics don't look promising here for a directionally neutral premium selling play, but I could see going for something bullish if earnings experience engine failure and crash into the 52-week low around 48 and implied volatility remains high such that a bullish assumption play would be productive (e.g., short puts, Jade Lizard, etc.).
Although there are some other single names that are "ripe" for a volatility contraction play right here (TSLA (earnings in 31) comes to mind), my general tendency is to resist the urge to put plays on in single name with earnings announcements that are near the monthly and instead wait until the eve of the announcement. With a rank of 99 and implied of >100%, though, it's understandably tough to sit on one's hands and wait.
On the Exchange-Trade Fund Front:
Brazil is voting today, so it's likely that you're too late to get into a volatility contraction play that may evolve after the results are finalized (the time to have put that play on was last week). That being said, it's also possible that EWZ gets even more volatile depending on the outcome, even though implied volatility is at the top of its 52-week range at 56.2%.
The financial media has returned to covering 10-year T note yield hand-wringing and/or the spiking of bond yields in general as a general, explanatory theme of why the broad market gave some up last week. TLT broke through long-term support at 116 last week, cratering to 113. I was previously shorting TLT from the 122 level via put diagonals, but it appears that play may have temporarily played out in the absence of some risk-off event that drives treasuries back up. I will continue to short TLT on retrace, but there is little that sticks out to me in terms of horizontal resistance other than 122 and 116, and I'm hesitant to short from 116, since it literally just broke that level "seconds ago" in the scheme of things.
XLF Threatens to Break the short Term TrendXLF already closed out of the momentum phases intermediate and Closed right at the Short term Bearish crossover. Things looking bad for Financials here.
XLF Important Financial SPDR.. Suddenly Dropping SharplyS+P Select Spider ETF XLF,
a basket of the most important financial stocks,
including money center banks have been dropping sharply in the last week.
Somehow big money always seem to know and then exit ahead of material adverse news.
It's really uncanny, and it's been that way since the 1920's,
as they were early getting out then ahead of the great stock market crash of 1929.
By the way XLF, the financials are reacting to the Italian bank debt crisis,
one can obviously see the genuine concern for contagion risk is very real.
THE_UNWIND
$XLF bullish credit spreadNew bullish credit spread on XLF (financials) for OCT 12! Not this Friday. Solid movement this morning in the market and financials is starting to show strength. Decided to take this move out two weeks to allow for the bottom to confirm and some bullish movement to occur.
Entry 27.79
Max profit 28.50
Break even 28.14
0.38:1 risk/reward
XLF coming into a Trend LineI like the idea XLF is coming into a trend line but whole lot of price value is still below. I know the chart doesn't show the volume profile but 27.41 has to hold. Any lower and we could really see a market correction.
broke my stop and go - at the beginning it broke out the long term resistant (blue arrow)
- it did not continue going up, instead it came back and re tested the supportive line (yellow horizontal line)
- broke the support and also my stop (the lower horizontal line
- it did not continue the downward trend, instead it rebound right away with a long solid candlestick
lesson
- not chase at the top of the breaking out candlestick, it would be a hard time if it retraced
- how to set up an effective STOP?
- buy at the failure of going down is safer than buy at the top of breaking out
XLF threatening trend Change as of todayKRE confirmed the trend break down yesterday. XLF is the next domino to crack. I have little doubt we are about to see nice correction in the financials sector.
XLF long call + daily breakoutYesterday, I opened a few positions in the 3x financial bulls etf symbol "FAS" as I though it was at a better value than technology. To my surprise, the banks exploded higher in making a new daily high. With this new high, I believe the financial banks will begin to perform better and attempt to reach all time highs. I bought the January 18th long call option strike 28 for 1.49$. I believe the XLF stock will reach 30$ and I should be able to sell this option for (.51/1.49)=34.2% gain. I will be interested in locking in some profits with a sell call when the stock is near all time highs. I bought 7 contracts, so I am risking 1,043$ and looking to make atleast 250$ up to 340$.
$XLF - We're getting to the end of it. Well... the beginningAfter this week, it's fair to say I deserve to get another bearish post in before I look too much like a nut head who's dead-set on seeing a major market correction. & Before I give anyone the benefit of the doubt about this post - over the past 11 days (I think?), $GS has been on the longest losing streak in history (money.cnn.com). 12 or so trading days ago (Aug 28th, I think) - I called the top. The top for 'a while', at least (stocktwits.com). The past year (123) trading day highs about to cross below the (252) trading day lows is obviously a bearish cross, but whatever investors see with their own moving averages / TA they might see as a contrarian indicator, so I think there's enough bullishness left to see another head-fake before that all comes to a (deep) end. Another reason I say that, & really the main reason I started looking into financials entirely before becoming completely bearish was $PFG. The black bar pattern to the right of the chart is $PFG's current trend, compared to its trend in 2008 before the 2009 crash. Like $AIG, $PFG is another investment / insurance company (little less than half in size) that I've used as a leading indicator for the performance of financials. Right now, it's on its last leg to making a few upward moves before really starting a downward spiral. I'm sure you could say the chart is a coincidence, & the fact that both $XLF & $PFG both merely reached their ATH's back from 2008 (Fib used on chart is based on highs / first drop in 2008) before starting the downtrend. But the market doesn't lie, & trust me I've tried to spot any bubble / crisis potential / whatever we're looking at but in an overall picture, Goldman Sachs is looking @ a picture perfect clone of what it saw in 2015. While $PFG is reflecting back on it's 2008 trend. & while $XLF isn't acting the same as it did in 2008, but I think the ATH's being near exactly alike is something I really can't get off the back of my mind of what the market thinks for the long run.
$PFG Link -
$GS Link -
XLF - Bullish (a little bit)Financials have certainly busted out these last few days and I have put up 2 EW counts that might suggest it could keep going over the coming days and weeks. The problem I have however is knowing whether the 2018 correction is actually over or not and it is just as possible that the correction takes another turn and continues down. If the red count turns out to be correct then in the spirit of alternation we could expect a deeper correction yet as the 2nd wave was only shallow. Lots of interesting things happening in the financial markets. Never a dull moment.
$spx $spy $xlf Nice breakout in the financialsNice breakout in XLF the resistance has now become support.
XLF I'd be very very cautious taking swing longs in financialsXLF sure looks like it is at range highs and channeling sideways. I am leaning bearish from here intermediate term. Also, this weeks weakness drawn down by insurance. All the hype over the hurricane has traders bidding down the insurance companies.
