XLF finding support, ready to go ahead of Big Bank EarningsOld resistance acting as support for XLF, earnings reports for big banks begin Friday, 7/13. Option shown on chart for long position, current bid/ask. GLTA.
XLF trade ideas
Death Crosses AboundA few sectors are signaling troubles ahead, with their 50 day MA's crossing below their 200 day MA's.
This chart picture shows SPY (upper left) as a broad gauge of market action. It has yet to experience the "death cross."
However, the industrial stocks measured by XLI (upper right), materials stocks measured by XLB, and financial stocks measured by XLF have all experienced the death cross. Given their importance as a proxy for future growth, this seems to bode poorly for broader markets.
Buy the Banks, Suckers!Every time I turn on CNBC, FBN, or the like, I hear a pundit or analyst pounding the table to "buy the banks." The go on to ramble a spiel about low valuation rations (P/B, P/E, P/FCF, etc), rising rate environments, yield curve inversions, and other reasons that they should outperform the markets going forward. But who's biting?
A quick glance at the SPDR financial ETF - XLF - and you will likely arrive at the conclusion that this is a sell, not a buy. We've broken short term trends (red dotted lines), intermediate term trend (orange dotted line) from 2016 lows, and are approaching a trend line (green dotted line) from the recession lows nearly a decade ago. Even worse, it looks to have formed a double top at the $30 level, the first peak coming in 2007.
Until there's a bid to reverse trend, this is a hard sell. Support looks to come in around $25. If that fails, the next support is around $21, but that's crash-level support.
Of course, one must ponder... if the banks are rolling over, how well can the broader markets hold up? Is this the warning shots of a larger correction in the markets? Hmm...
HAS THE XLF (LARGE BANKS) PUT IN A DOUBLE TOP ?Does the double top in the-XLF warn us of an economic slow-down?
The US Industrial stocks are slowing, as well as the emerging markets and US large banks.
History teaches us to pay attention to longer trends, and the-XLF clearly has not been able to put in new highs.
Most of the indicators for the XLF-are slowing.
I think that this is forecasting an economic slowdown.
Use caution and don't chase story stocks.
Don.
XLF on the brink againXF financials/banks ETf on the brink again as it strains to maintain the 2 year+ uptrend from early 2016. Close below 27 area could lead to a swift 8%-10% more downside.
Leading the market lower post FOMC as 10s-2s yield curve flattens further
XLF Diamond Looks like a diamond to me, very similar to last year. Also works well with some harmonics patterns. Bounced off closing the gap that was created on the 6th today.
XLF make or breakexpected sell off on Tuesday, needs to snap back and break out of the broadening wedge to escape the downtrend. little bit of hidden bullish divergence which may help the cause
XLF needs a daily close below 26.80A daily close on XLF financial sector etf below 26.80 would break horizontal support and be the lowest close for 6 months and would also be a close below uptrend since 2016....BEARISH
XLF - Inside Bar formation w/ potential breakoutThe market has been consolidating after a strong up move. An inside bar pattern has formed during this pause and presents a good opportunity to get in on the next leg up. A good strategy would be to enter on an upside break of the inside bar with a stop loss just below the bottom of the inside bar pattern. It creates a very attractive risk/reward setup.
Short bullish pop then dropIn my opinion, looks like the weakness of earnings but temporary bullishness of SM will provide short term pop for financials to 28.2X then drop to lower support for next consolation leg down.
Financial Sector has found support at the 200-dayXLF has good support at 26.80, which coincides with the 200-day EMA. It will probably trade higher to 28 and then returns to 29.
XLF double channel line bounceXLF at bottom of channel looking to retest highst at 30. Long at 27.05
OPENING: XLF June/Sept 24/27/28/31 Double Net Credit Diagonal... for a .58/contract credit.
Basically, this is a calendarized iron condor or iron fly, where you roll just the short strangle/short straddle body of the setup for cost basis reduction, while keeping the long strangle aspect in place for purposes of defining the risk ... . Take profit is somewhat subjective, but I start to look to bail on the trade at >20% of the width of the wings.
With short straddle "bodies," I tend to roll when the short straddle body has reached 25% max; with short strangle bodies, 50%. This is a fairly tight short strangle, so will treat it as a short straddle for purposes of rolling.
Financial forming bear flagFor every positive @allstarcharts is putting out, I can put out a negative. he does have breadth on his side though.
XLF shortRemaining short. XLF looks like it is heading lower still. Break of trend and 200DMA support suggests $25 on a close below $27. FED continuing to raise rates with no meaningful inflation reinforces US curve flattening, and damping loan demand, negative for banks.
XLF gets a boost Financials primed for a bounce ... guessing gap fill and trend line test above Channel or chop suey
