OPENING: XLF June/Sept 24/27/28/31 Double Net Credit Diagonal... for a .58/contract credit.
Basically, this is a calendarized iron condor or iron fly, where you roll just the short strangle/short straddle body of the setup for cost basis reduction, while keeping the long strangle aspect in place for purposes of defining the risk ... . Take profit is somewhat subjective, but I start to look to bail on the trade at >20% of the width of the wings.
With short straddle "bodies," I tend to roll when the short straddle body has reached 25% max; with short strangle bodies, 50%. This is a fairly tight short strangle, so will treat it as a short straddle for purposes of rolling.
XLF trade ideas
Bearish pattern on the financialsYou can see here that financials have put in a series of lower low's. Often in such cases, we see retracement back into the original range. If you are looking for a short opportunity entering at the 50% level with a downside target at the 1.6 extension level would offer a reasonable risk/reward ratio. With the midterms coming up, I would expect a low prior to election day.
Double Top Forming on XLF / FinancialsXLF is approaching massive resistance at $30, the peak prior to the Great Recession. It appears to be forming a double top, which if cleared will open the door for a huge rally. Conversely, a failure would open the door to a large correction. Very short term (next week or so), I think we see buyers lift prices (I'm long 3/29 $29's), but I believe we ultimately fail at $30, a level I'll short against. Given broader weakness, European banking issues (DB is crashing), overly bullish sentiment, and the aforementioned technical picture, it seems to be a good setup.
Financials about to complete 61.8 correction The Financials are looking strong today as we get closer to FOMC minutes.
XLF is about to complete a 61.8 Fib correction to the bearish move that we had two weeks ago when XLF touched 2008's levels.
This can be the end of XLF's bullish pullback... if it's a pullback :)
XLF will definitely be influenced by today's minutes.
Check it out