XLF trade ideas
New Area for XLF @ > 25 USD at least (historical context)What a rollercoaster the financilas got - no doubt :)
How ever, based on some strategic facts (point of views) i realized that the financial sector still got time and room to prices above 25 at least. Why ??? The Sentiment changed !!! And not only this - of course politics in the US too. And this is probably the most inflous - the most bullish factor !? CNBC Joe (Squaqck Box) said an interesting set which not tasted good at first, but as longer i am thinking about it, it`s sounding plausible: "Maybe we don`t see a Trump Rally !? Maybe it`s an Obama recreation" (he said this set not word by word - in context of course - don`t nail me for this quote). And thats what i am also starting to believe. It`s much more an recovery of the last 8 years - even under Obama (and his policy in context to the financial markets) - even in relations to the US Equities (Financials & Energy Sector).
I am not an political analysis or even political expert,
but this hypothesis makes sense in historical context of the chart!
And that`s the reason why i am so pretty optimistic - kosher confident (self-disciplined) not euphoric bullish. `Cause i can`t feel maniac future optimism around me - not here in chats, not on other intenet sites, not on CNBC or BloombergTv and by no one of my trading buddies.
2400 at least for the SPX are in (over Christmas into Trumpe Presidency start)
25 at least for the XLF are in (over Christmas into Trumpe Presidency start)
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron
Bearish XLFI may regret this, but damn does this look pig look ugly. There's a lot of Trump brand lipstick on it don't get me wrong, but this rally is just too far for me not to take a stab.
XLF time 2 shortXLF time 2 short. From 2007 May high to 2016 October high the red line is the resistance.
From 2009 MArch low till 2016 feb low is green line acting as support. But even DOWJONES, SPY AND NASDAQ MADE SOME NEW HIGHS BUT XLF failed to do so. Means technically its weak. So time to short :)
xlf v spx500 wicks thoeryIllustrating the wicks experienced during the Lehman brothers moment. Curious, and not in the media too much, August 31, 2015 xlf flash crash. A wick is a reversal of a move. Either by trading exhaustion of sellers, or by some hidden force. I say, and have no proof to back this up, we were about to experience something very bad in banking on that day, but did not, a little over one year until the 2016 election. I believe a decision was made that day, to watch the markets closely, and make sure if there is ever a turn for the very much worse, it be propped up, or pumped up. Thus we have this very un historic chart since then. Also, January 11, 2016 was similar, and was stopped from getting worse. With negative interest rates, and no lending volume, how can the banks report well their earnings next few days. Maybe they will find a way, i.e. lets just create new checking accounts out of thin air, and charge people for fees they don't know about or understand. What is next in the news? This has xlf short written all over it. Also, note the severity of the xlf drops, v the S&P drops. The magnitude of banks is much larger. Since March 14, 2016 this chart is in fantasy land.
XLF Transform trigger near. OBV must trigger in concert. Transform logic. Canned Fisher with modifications. Watching for obv to validate. GL.
Long Banks: The Fed Has to Raise, Right?In light of the beastly last two NFPs and increasing inflation, I would like the think the Fed will raise rates in September... they probably won't, but that is not the point. XLF has broken out of the nearly year long triangle quite clearly. It is a long. Near term resistance is at 25, however that should be taken out.
Tl;dr: Long XLF
XLF: Forecast To A Banking Fall? The Harmonic Ichimoku CloudXLF-is the Financial SPDR. It includes JPMorgan Chase-Wells Fargo-Chubb-Citigroup-AmExpress-Travelers-etc. Is the weakness in this SPDR signaling a spillover from European bank weakness? The XLF-chart is continuing its down-trend, and even the Ichimoku Cloud is demonstrating harmonic patterns for key reversals. For example, look at the five numbers I have placed on the chart above. These numbers mean the following:
Number 1 is pivot high. Number 2 is pivot low. Number 3 is cloud Fibonacci retracement .236. Number 4 is for two cloud Fibonacci retracements at 50%. Number 5 is the likely cloud reversal at Fibonacci .786. YES, THERE IS HARMONY IN THE CLOUD.
Other technical indicators:
Here are the letters and what "TRADE-MAP" means to me (first the letters in TRADE):
1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
Now the letters in MAP:
6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance. There you have it: Don's personal "TRADE-MAP.
"Don's Top Ten Technicals": 1. The Ichimoku Cloud is lower than structure to the left. 2. Prices are trading BELOW the cloud. 3. Prices are trading consistently BELOW the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line. 4. The thick red conversion line is moving SHARPLY LOWER. 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud and this is HEADING DOWN.
6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this is not strong on any up moves. 7. The top-side middle indicator is vortex and this is NEGATIVE (red over green). 8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy", and this is VERY WEAK. 9. The red fractal arrows (not pictured) are DOWN. 10. Look to the far right on the chart, around $23. You will notice a yellowish line on the bottom (jaws), with black dots above (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) above the black dots. Now, all three are OPENED, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "jaws, lips, and teeth of a NOW AWAKE, FEEDING alligator, and the alligator is feeding into the DOWN-TREND.
I can only conclude the banks and financials, as measured by XLF-are weak and will get weaker. If European banks fail, this could spill over to the United States.
Disclosure: I have gone short XLF-many times this year, and currently hold positions for a further decline.
I would like to close with a quote from John Mendosa: "Ever wonder if illiterate people get the full effect of alphabet-soup?"
I hope this has been entertaining and informative. I hope all of your trades go well. Don.
XLF and Q2 EarningsQ2 Earnings season is starting in Monday, July 11th with major financial institutions reporting.
Financials are projected to do slightly better then the previous quarter and may offer good upside potential.
From a fundamental standpoint, most financials are undervalued when taking into account future interest rates.
If "Market Stabilization" occurs in Q2 or Q3, further revenue and earnings growth is expected from Trading Revenue.
Technical Analysis showing resistance points after a break through the strong trend ling.
Update on financials: XLF2 months ago I posted on XLF suggesting the top was likely in (see link below). As I review the recent price action I think it is is mostly likely forming a triangle before a final major drop. My intermediate term target is on the daily chart. I don't know if it will stop at the long term uptrend line or go on to close the gap. Take care. Good trading to you.
PS: Notice the nice channels. Also there is a negative reversal in the daily RSI followed by a bearish divergence which I have pointed out before often leads to lower lows.
Banks woke up after FedFundamentals :
According to minutes of the Fed's latest meeting, U.S. central bankers feel it would be time to raise rates at the next Fed meeting on June 14-15 if hiring and economic growth continue to strengthen and inflation keeps rising. Higher rates are good for Banks and bad for Utilities and REITs.
Technicals :
Banking sector was a laggard compare to broad market but recently has been holding near year's highs. With yeasterday's reaction to Fed's announcment, it triggered an initial Entry after break and close above trend line. I am curful here, as it is only 1 day action and could be erased.
Trade Management :
Break of bull flag triggered at $23.20 with respective stop at $23. If it builds udner the highs $23.77 new set up, I will add with Target at $24.70 (2015 highs)
XLF - first down moove to18$ and below ..... then last wave up?big down moove (few month to comlete) at least to 18$
then maybe just maybe .... 28$ as final target.
looking to buy faz above 40.3$ and then if market agrees with me I'll add more.
XLF- Which way to goI'd say closer to a short than a long, but we still need a clearer picture. A break 24.5/25 would be bullish, a break below 20 or so, bearish. THink we will move one way or the other in the coming months based on important fundos such as Spanish Election, Brexit, US election, China, etc.
