US financials - Room for relief and DOWNIt could have fallen from Oct13...
Instead, it has managed to grind in a narrow channel for a year.
Probably a short after a few weeks neutral bias up.
XLF trade ideas
A healthier view of XLF; and a thought on ETF trendsPerhaps regression channel lines are more appropriate to trend touch lines for ETFs.
This channel and trend are in response, and submitted as alternative, to the recently posted XLF "broken trend" case.
XLF, healthy uptrendline broken twice in 3 months, still healthyi begin to doubt the health of this uptrendline
XLF, XLY, indexes above 50 MA, Something wicked this way comesRec line day, something changed, what should have happened did not happen, and they will have a wild time writing the history books about this one, once the dust clears.
JBI - Just Box Itclassical break out momentum continuation play. not really happy with the stop placement, but there should be some support below the break out candle, due to the prefect bullish separation. considering the recent market action, there is a real chance that this turns out to be a bull trap. that being said, a setup is a setup.
Financials are getting weakerIt's been way too long since there was a serious correction. A bull market usually lasts for about 4 - 5 years. The current bull market is 6 years old! The last serious correction was in 2011. Everybody is excited by this new record high for the Dow. How can anyone be excited knowing the age of this uptrend??? All major global indices are on the spot of huge bearish divergences. The VIX is at a very low level. The New High - New Low indicator that Dr. Elder calls the best leading indicator is showing massive bearish divergences. The earnings season did not exceed any expectations, with most stocks posting dissapointing results( I don't check the raw numbers, but it's vissible on the charts). The FED is exiting the QE program. The seasonal bullishness is fading away, as summer is coming. Why go long ??? It's time to short. When will this correction or the bear market finally come?? It's impossible to tell, all I know is I do not want to go long just because the Dow is at a historical high.
There's not much to say about the chart presented here. I think the labels are telling all the story. Momentum is fading away, and deviations from the Wave are getting smaller, and the MACD lines are showing a double bearish divergence.
I want to take the short side using the daily chart. At this moment there is no setup, neither here, neither on the daily. The point is to look for shorts, not for longs.
Daily. Potential H&S top? #watchlistHeld the 50sma well with nice follow through, however there is o/h resistance from the shorter t/f MAs and a potential rounding top. From a macro perspective a large H&S could be forming. Needs new highs soon otherwise look for a short entry IMHO.
XLF LongXLF made a 52 week high yesterday
and generated a Saucer Buy Signal
on the Alligator trade system.. It also took out a previous fractal buy signal.
XLF is
bullish on the weekly as well and this is a
good entry point long term
A sell stop should be below the Alligator teeth, red line or use
the weekly charts teeth area. XLF continues to be a strong sector
which is excellent for overall market strength IMO
Update: Still Predominantly Bearish; Caution | $XLF $SPDR $AMEXFriends,
On February 01st, we released this DAILY chart with a "Neutral" directional bias pending a bearish market reversal confirmation signal. This signal has yet to come, however, at that time, we highlighted two significant overhead resistance, one at 21.84 representing a probable level of reversal, and a second at 22.16, representing a historical structure high, which if transgressed, would invalidate our bearish outlook.
OVERALL:
Bearish target remains intact. overhead resistance levels remain valid. Directional bias is neutral-to-bearish.
Cheers,
David Alcindor | 4xQuad
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado, USA
PS: Here is a weekly SPX chart worth considering:
www.tradingview.com
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Disclaimer: All of our analyses are for educational purpose only. The forecasts, analyses and opinions generated herein are not trading recommendations. We trust that you would do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional and enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - a.k.a.: 4xForecaster | 4xQuad, LLC.
