XLF trade ideas
Warning, warning, financials in huge problemsXLF was for some time in a bullish and bearish mode opportunity. There were chances for bulls as it was close to triggering the bullish reversal pattern, the inverted head, and the shoulder, but it failed. On the other side, bears did have their reversal pattern, a rising wedge that was broken yesterday, triggering a sell signal. This is a zone/situation in which XLF could drop really hard and really fast.
Volume is increasing on the drop, which is bearish.
We are still above the 50-day MA and BigRed, which is neutral due to the fact we are below the 20-day MA.
RSI is dropping hard, signaling weak market conditions.
MACD is ticking strong red while the MACD line starts to fall hard.
Overall, with the triggering of the rising wedge and breaking below the trendline, there is a really small chance for bulls for some time now. There could be some kind of retesting of that broken trendline, but only retesting after which I expect the price will dive just like that. The first major support should be where there is BigRed and a block area from the end of 2022. The chances for that to hold are not big.
For bulls, the only last hope is that we don't make a lower low (blue dotted line), but it is only a hope as it seems for now.
AAPL/MFST Key Resistance for $QQQ. XLF Houly Bullflag, 25BPS- 7.5% move on QQQ/NASDAQ in 4 days. AAPL and MSFT now hitting key resistance, will be watching to see if it can break above or not for QQQ to continue.
- likely a slight pullback hourly consolidation for QQQ before attempting another leg up.
- after ECB hiked 0.5% this morning our rate hike of 25Bps increased to 80% chance this morning.
- XLF hourly bullflag still possible need to see bulls show up and hold above 0.382 fib
- as long as hourly trend is intact for the bulls on QQQ / SPY / SPX there is no red flag at all for the bulls.
Financials Revisit a Long-Term LevelThe past week’s selloff in banks has inflicted some punishment on the broader financial sector. But how severe is it? Will the crisis become an opportunity for patient buyers?
Today’s chart of the SPDR Financial Select Sector Fund might help answer those questions. It uses weekly candles to help provide a long-term perspective.
The main pattern with potential relevance is the price area around $31. It was the high on two notable occasions: before the financial crisis in 2007 and immediately before the pandemic in February 2020.
Notice how XLF tested and held this critical level in June and July of 2022. The index briefly fell about $1 below it in October but recovered after a few weeks. Those previous bounces may suggest that old resistance has become new support.
Fast forward to March 2023 and XLF is back in the same neighborhood. This morning saw a probe as low as $30.90 before prices rebounded.
Given that the current low is slightly above the October trough, the result could be an inverted head and shoulders basing pattern. (See the white arrows.)
The 200-week simple moving average (SMA) is the other potentially noteworthy pattern. Notice how XLF bounced at this line at other moments in 2016 and 2018. (See the green arrows.)
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above:
Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund ( XLF ):
1-year: -7.27%
5-years: +23.73%
10-years: +150.14%
(As of February 28, 2023)
Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.
Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.
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Has XLF caught support after todays drop?To be honest i don't know where XLF will go from here. With my current skill level and studies, I think we can go a little more lower. What do you guys think? Comment Below
XLF - FinancialsIn case you're wondering what caused the tank today, financials led the way.
Unfortunately, I don't think SI will be the only bank to go under, I think this is just the beginning. We're going to see banks go under because they lent money to garbage companies at low rates. A lot of these companies are gonna go bankrupt, like BBBY, W, PTON, AFRM, etc and as they go belly up, the banks take a loss.
I think today is just the start. That being said, XLF is now oversold on the daily so it probably gets a bounce.
A Line on a Chart 👹I want to be careful not to pile on amid the selloff that has taken place in the last couple trading sessions.
The point here is that bank stocks look unhealthy overall. I am looking at banks to continue to selloff, until otherwise noted.
Be careful! Short the rip!
Robert Kiyosaki & Peter Schiff right -Hard times make strong menXLF financials, Stocks to GDP and stocks to gold, all tell the story.
Our debt based system is bottlenecked. More money is 'needed'.
XLF (Banks)If you notice , late Friday banks like JPM and WFC started to catch a bid.
Part of the reason for dip buying was that XLF bounced off .618 at 32.45.
XLF is oversold on the daily but no where near as bad as XLV.
Technically we are as oversold now as we're back at October lows on the daily chart.
Unless we break 32.45 , nit a good idea to short banks ... looking for a 2-3 day bounce here
super clean head and shoulders D: xlfdoes it get cleaner than this?
thank you silver gate
trend is higher highs and higher lows.
all a technical pattern does is observe change.
XLF - Technical Breakdown in finacialsXLF is now trailing behind the KRE . This topping formation has now triggered on the daily chart and is showing us there is a tremendous amount of risk in the banking sector.
Will we see a small bank blow up which causes contagion?
$spy $xlf Failed breakoutFrom failed moves come fast moves in opposite direction. As financials go, so go the rest of the market....eventually
sector ETF charts show the blow off and distribution of topsSchwab put out a great letter yesterday showing various ways to value the market. While the market valuation has improved slightly, on most measures, the investors are getting very little bang for the buck. I enjoyed the article very much and will give the link here if youre interested
www.schwab.com
In summary, market aint cheap.
Scanning over the big picture views on 8 etf sectors, boy do those charts look scary. I really cant believe how so many "picture traders" believe the market has bottomed and will go straight up from here. I get it. Draw a line, good enough right? But after living through this learning experiment for almost 20 years, this dont look right.
sure, maybe the fed and gov can devalue the dollars and therefor make the number go up on everything. fine, so be it, im a metal bull anyway. I got stock, fine. but thats not real wealth. its a robbery. borrow all u can and let them devalue.
but as far as trying to find value, its not really on sales. half of would be fair on the growth stocks. half off would be fair on the value stocks too. alot of stocks have 2% or 3% earnings yields and growth in future dont look so hot. 1 and 2 year notes are paying near 5%. this market doesnt make sense.
I remember in 2006, 2007, 2008, things were confusing too. I honestly believe the big boys prefer it that way. Institutions and whales cant unload if the public doesnt stay in long enough anyway. Bear market rallys are just reloading rallys for the big boys.
If you dont learn to do your own homework, youre just going to get used and abused.
XLF Breakout watchI like the breakout pattern that has formed here. Long entry would be on a break above the recent high. Targets would be the fib retracements above. Needs broad market support on the breakout. Not interested any more if price falls below the box. May trade the ETF itself or instruments within it.
XLF time for the rising wedge to uncoverXLF is in a huge rising wedge from a bearish point of view and in an inverted Head and shoulder pattern from a bullish point of view. Unfortunately for one side, this will move very fast and strong on one side. The information from this chart indicates it will be down, or to say on the proper way there is more chance to drop than to go up from here (this is a game of probabilities, not certain things, and we need to bring odds in our favor to earn money while trading). We had 6 tries to breakout out of the neckline to be able to say we are going to an all-time high, financials break it and trigger a very powerful and tradeable bullish pattern Inverted Head and shoulder. But each of those 6 times the XLF pump above the neckline was smashed right away which is a sign of a bearish market. Same as on QQQ, if there would not be a set sell signal before, now it is for sure.
Volume does confirm price action. Volume on the downside is much stronger than on those trying to break out.
RSI after huge bearish divergences is now dropping to neutral territory.
MACD is ticking lower and lower while the MACD line will very likely today fall below the signal line signaling short opportunities.
Overall: financials just don't have the power to cross the neckline and start a massive bull move up which btw would bring the whole market up. WQe can't go anywhere with the financial sector, just can't and won't. Therefore this is a very crucial time for the market as a whole. If XLF really drops from here drops below the trend line and triggers a rising wedge pattern it is over for bulls for some longer period of time.
If bulls don't wanna see the nasty and red first half of the year they need to start buying right away. The chances for breaking the rising wedge are much higher than the neckline due to the mention above.
XLF rising wedgeCorrection coming for the banks Late FEB , Early March.
Daily Candle bearish engulfing with some increase in selling pressure
XLF D1 - struggling to break resistanceXLF D1 - struggling to break resistance. Not a short signal, but worth watching if there will be developing selling pressure on lower TFs, and then reassess. The implied volatility is low, so maybe buying a put to limit risk to the upside.
XLF is on its end of the pattern, it's decision time!XLF daily - there is more and more chance that financials will drop hard and fast. It just can't break out of the neckline and continue it's moving up. It pops twice in the last 3 sessions above the trend line but those trend lines are very strong resistance areas.
XLF is close to decision time, meaning will bulls win and this will trigger an inverted Head and shoulder reversal pattern which will confirm we had a bottom or this will be broken down from a rising wedge, a very bearish pattern. It is close to the end of the pattern and there is no more place for decisions. Therefore break will be imminent on one side or the other.
Inverted SHS will mean the possibility for testing ATH while rising wedge testing of lows.
I would stay aside until we get perfect confirmation.
Both RSI and MACD are pointing for a big drop due to their negative bearish divergences.
Prepare popcorn because there will be fireworks soon!
$XLF financial sector fund $XLF broken out of C&H continuation setup. being NDX and S&P and break out point with
Financial ETF May Be Attempting a BreakoutFinancials have quietly outperformed since the summer. Are they now getting ready for a breakout?
The first pattern on today’s chart of the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund is the series of higher lows since early November. That could suggest buyers are willing to pay incrementally higher prices.
XLF has pushed against a slightly rising trendline that runs along the highs beginning in late May. This combination of overhead resistance and higher lows may create the potential for a breakout.
Next is the $30.97 level. It was a major long-term high in 2007 (before the financial crisis) and early 2020 (before the coronavirus crash). Prices tested and held this support twice last year. There was also a failed breakdown in October.
Third, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) had a “golden cross” above the 200-day SMA on December 22. Is the longer-term trend getting more bullish? In the shorter term, the eight-day exponential moving average (EMA) has also climbed above the 21-day EMA.
Finally, consider fundamentals and the macro situation. Banks have increased provisions for bad loans. They’re also fighting a deeply inverted yield curve and recession worries. What happens if some of those negatives start to lift?
Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above:
Financial Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLF):
1-year: -12.42%
5-years: +22.54%
10-years: +156.95%
(As of January 31, 2023)
Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision.
Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
Important Information
TradeStation Securities, Inc., TradeStation Crypto, Inc., and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., all operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. TradeStation Crypto, Inc. offers to self-directed investors and traders cryptocurrency brokerage services. It is neither licensed with the SEC or the CFTC nor is it a Member of NFA. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products, and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Please click here for further important information explaining what this means.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only. This is not a recommendation regarding any investment or investment strategy. Any opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of TradeStation or any of its affiliates.
Investing involves risks. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options, futures, or digital assets); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Before trading any asset class, first read the relevant risk disclosure statements on the Important Documents page, found here: www.tradestation.com .
XLF monthly new bull market or fake out?XLF (banks) monthly was in a huge symmetrical triangle which start to form at COVID lows and January did break out which is bullish while the month finished slightly above last month's high which is also bullish as we got higher highs and higher lows or trends.
However, volume is not the best and doesn't confirm too much this price action much as on break out of this kind of pattern volume should be much bigger or this could be just a fakeout or dead hook which could cause a major drop in whole banks sector next several months.
Therefore price needs to move on, and close above the January high. RSI is neutral and still has a lot of places to move up. MACD histogram is ticking smaller and smaller while lines are trying to cross and to support up move. From the bearish point of view, if XLF drops below the trend line this will just be a Bear pullback and will get a big and nasty sell signal.
Consistent trades assess there is more possibility to drop from here due to the fact that reports from banks weren't the best at all plus the real estate market start to fall which could also be negative for banks. After this Hype about the FED pivot, interest hike and etc, fundaments will arrive again and banks will likely drop.
XLF daily - sell signal-XLF daily what a move today. First, we gapped down at open, then we fall, then buyers came in and drive XLF to 0.6% up, but then the price hit major resistance, neckline, and drop hard on strong volume. The last hour's volume was a huge drop and the volume was like 4 hours before together. When I checked 1 H candle I can say retailer traders played the whole day with fire and in the last hour of trading big boys sold out.
The whole week's volume is smaller than 20 day's average which indicates this is still only a bear market rally and is not confirming price action.
However, XLF is above all significant MA which is bullish.
RSI is in the mid-overbought territory and is ready for a correction.
MACD also doesn't confirm this price move and has negative divergences which are bearish, the same as RSI.
Overall: Banks are lagging in this show and in this move-up, due to their pretty bad financial report. Also, most banks said they expect a weaker next quarter which can't be too positive for the sector r as a whole. XLF formed a big shooting star reversal pattern at the top of the leg which is very bearish. RSI and MACD are confirming moves are not strong same as the volume.
Therefore Consistent trades put a sell signal at XLF.
