XLI swing long idea 10/14/22Hey all, as I've been making clear, I suspect a near-term pullback. I am fully planning on buying the dip; here's how I plan on playing XLI and what I am expecting.
XLI trade ideas
XLI higher low lookhey all, I think XLI is creating a higher low here. I don't expect this name to breach fresh 52 lows for a while; I'd much rather be long here than short.
XLI long ideaHey all, I think industrials are due to bounce and are setting up very similarly to 2008. Here's my long trade idea.
Industrials to bounce backLooks like the worst is priced in. PPI rising faster than CPI, which means it's the retail who take the hit. Industrial PMIs stopped falling off the cliff. Looks like October might support industrials a bit
SHORT | XLIAMEX:XLI
Possible Scenario: SHORT
Evidence: Price Action, Money-Flow, Rejection at 200MA,
TP1: 95$
TP1: 92$
PUT option, 16 Sep, Strike 98$
This is my idea and could be wrong 100%.
Industrials swing short ideaHey all, I'm currently positioning myself for the likely next leg lower in the stock market. Currently watching industrials and names within XLI for shorts. It has rallied nicely off the bottom and likely will present a solid reward when it moves lower. I think it is a lower-risk trade, and will likely be easy to stop out of break-even should things go awry.
XLI , SHORT Similar to todays XLK short this too I would also consider this a C trade.
Here's why
Cons
1) The stop is far ,
2) Missed the little pop at the end of day , could have had a slightly better stop vs entry distance ( I did enter in final 30 min per
my rules , however ...)
3) We have not cleared the range, big bars are common in ranges .
4) DB , MTR , a possibility here , more of a range than todays XLK play , so I would say XLK slightly higher quality than XLI.
(double bottom , major trend reversal )
Pros
1) Bulls failed to have follow through from yesterdays FOMC rally signal candle
2) Stage 4 downtrend w/ death cross valid
3) If we do breakdown more bears will sell the entry candle and follow-through candle ...
4) Possibility for a measured move down
5) Valid signal per my strat and market in RTM ( red trading mode )
Ultimately I have taken the trade anyways because I have been waiting for this and even though its a weak signal , it is a signal. I have gotten more defensive on my de risk plan too though ....
I am taking profits on 1/3 at 1R and there I will switch to BE stop .... then will cover another 1/3 at 2R , then sell the rest on a close above 10/21 ema's.
Stop 98.41
PT 92.49
Not the right time for producersThe funny thing is - US have been exporting inflation for decades. Now they seem to be importing it. Chinese and German manufacturers rise prices at double digits, while US producers struggle to cope with logistics imbalances. Strong decline after hitting a downtrend resistance shows lack of belief. Wrong stage of cycle.
Industrials still looking weakMany of the industrials stocks have come to reasonable pricing, but the amount of debt and price of raw materials still weigh on the sector. Possibly a weaker rebound on risk on sentiment
Industrials vs high ratesThe amount of debt and rising rates as well as commodities inflation keep putting pressure on the sector
XLI Daily - Industrial SectorThe Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Industrial Select Sector Index. The Index seeks to provide an effective representation of the industrial sector of the S&P 500 Index Seeks to provide precise exposure to companies in the following industries: aerospace and defense; industrial conglomerates; marine; transportation infrastructure; machinery; road and rail; air freight and logistics; commercial services and supplies; professional services; electrical equipment; construction and engineering; trading companies and distributors; airlines; and building products Allows investors to take strategic or tactical positions at a more targeted level than traditional style based investing
XLI top fish shortXLI following strong bull volume has a clear resistance at the 104.50 level. Quick daytrade opportunity with a possibility to swing based on afternoon momentum.
Industrials May Be Attempting a BreakoutIndustrials have gone nowhere for months, but some chart patterns suggest that may change soon.
The SPDR Industrial ETF (XLI) touched a six-month low under $98 in early October before rallying back toward $106. The bounce also occurred at the 200-day simple moving average, a potential sign its longer-term uptrend remains in effect.
Next, XLI had a very quick pullback on October 26 and 27. But it was immediately bought and has continued making higher lows since. The result is a tight consolidation pattern near the top of its range.
Third, yesterday’s $105.13 close was the highest since early September. Not far above that is the all-time high of $106.81. This may create the chance for a sneaking breakout, with additional money potentially coming to the table if prices venture into new territory.
Interestingly, XLI has gone 123 days without a new 52-week high. Along with the SPDR Materials ETF , that’s the longest period of any SPDR Sector fund in the market.
Finally, the macro backdrop may favor industrials because of their exposure to the cyclical economy. That lifted them between November 2020 and last May. Now the pendulum may swing back in that direction with a tapering Fed and increased activity into the holidays. (Don’t forget that Transports are Industrials.)
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Long IndustrialsAs we enter the final leg of the secular bull market, lots of folks are pointing to look at how broad the rally will be.
Industrials have one of the cleanest, and healthiest charts of all the sectors that I can find. Classic consolidation/bull flag to test the 200d SMA and 50w SMAs. There are lots of ways to play this, but I see the sector having at least another 20% upside.
I am currently long $DUSL .
Long $XLI Technical Setup $SPY $QQQ $SPXLong $XLI Technical Setup $SPY $QQQ $SPX
Strong bounce from Volume Shelf
Broke trendline
Above 8SMA
First Target 107$
XLI Details in photo.
I like to keep things simple. Will wait for bullish candles above the 50 ma on the 15 minute timeframe before entry. Not advice...
Industrials needs a breatherXLI, the Sultan, was the ultimate DOW mover. He ruled over everyone including hedge fund managers. Tuesdays action to the upside was great but gave it up at the end of the day. Wed and Thursday continued to the downside. On Friday, the Sultan tapped the 8 day EMA and came back up but closed below previous day high. The issue with XLI is the channels are small. If this low channel is to break, look out below cause I'm thinking of a 3 point move down to 102 as support. Based on HON, FDX, and UPS, Sultan's rule might be done for this coming two weeks.
XLI looking bearishThe biggest stocks in XLI are $HON and $BA
Those are in our bearish watch-list for tomorrow
$HON is making a triple top
RSI is also overbought
Blue Wave peaked
Like and Follow!
Industrials XLI to keep moving upSector ETFs are great ways to make long term plays and gain more than just buying the broader market.
We like industrials on several factors including re-opening.
However, we can't emphasize enough that our system is more based on Reward to Risk Ratios and having the right Stop-losses on swing trades
as well as long term investments.
Industrials and Basic Materials have a decent outlook to continue forward especially on a longer term basis.
