XLI - Bull Put SpreadPA sell off last few days to Mid BB%
Daily RSI Oversold
Found S&R at 76.3 Looking for consolidation and then reversal to mean back higher.
Aiming for 76/75 Put Credit & 77 Call option for Directional bias higher.
Exp Aug 16 but selling to close in Profit well before that.!
NB = DE (previous setup) is in the Same Sector so be continuous of Sector Weighting..
Good Luck - Watch YOUR RISK
XLI trade ideas
Time to short Industrials? XLIThe XLI looks poised for another leg lower after unsuccessfully retesting the breakdown from early May ($76-$77 level). After a strong bounce out of the descending wedge in early June, the XLI could be carving out a channel off of the top it printed in early April at $78.95. This bounce came right into previous support (the 4/25 low at $76.59) and reversed lower after a big gap up at the open (6/10) to close on its low. The following day we saw an increase in volume accompanied by an increased range and bearish close. The past four sessions have seen volume dry up and tight daily ranges but even here the XLI has shown a lack of real demand: aside from the opening gap in 6/13, we've seen price probe lower with a weak close. Today, 6/17, we witnessed a slight uptick in volume as the ETF closed just off its low. Now, the lack of volume and tight ranges can be attributed to the upcoming rate decision on Wed but there is further evidence to suggest lower price is in the offing. A quick rundown of the top 5 holdings of the XLI and how far off their respective high each of the components is trading, truly highlights the weakness in the sector. BA (20% off Mar 1 high), 8% of the index; HON (90bps off June high), 5.6% of the index and the lone standout; UNP (8.5% off May high), 5.4% of the index; UTX (14% off May high), 4.5% of the index; MMM (24% off late April high), 4.2% of the index. Collectively, these 5 names make up 28% of the ETF and each are currently either bouncing right into resistance to retest prior breaks or already breaking down. Looking for a break of the 6/11 at $74.87 and targeting the early June low just under $72, if not lower. This is a pretty low-risk setup assuming a stop above the 6/10 high at $76.7 and offers a decent potential reward if it plays out.
Don't Be A (High) Beta, Brah! $XLI $XLUI have been a huge component of growth slowing, and the cyclical/defensive proxy of XLI/XLU is a clear indicator that the growth outlook is mixed at best.
Not only that, you might be a beta (probably the bad kind). When you see both growth and inflation slowing on a rate of change basis on the back drop of higher volatility, you must always look to long low beta, short high beta (see Don't Be A MoMo ).
From today's Parallax Weekly:
Cyclical v Defensive (XLI/XLU) is hovering around a 11-month low. This is another indicator of slowing growth as cyclical revenue and earnings are heavily reliant on economic activity. This is also a high v low beta trade. The 3-year monthly beta 1.05 v .05. Since October 1, XLI is down 11.58 percent opposed to a 3.59 percent gain for XLU over the same period.
On a relative basis, XLU has outperformed XLI by 15.17 percent. And those long Bitcoin are missing that.
Still strong in a weekly overall rangeLooks to at least complete meas.move in the up channel. Watching copper as well which is weak, as a lower input cost maybe this helps XLI, but overall global demand appears soft. Consequently, looking to leg into short vertical call spread 80/83 area on weakness /exhaustion trigger
XLI - IndustrialsEarnings season is imminent here for most companies. A few of the industrials have been reporting recently too. I decided I'd throw a little premium on in here.
-1 Sep21 $75 straddle for $3.43 cr.
Risk: 1.5-2x credit received
Profit: 25-30% of credit received.
If we get a down move, I may just take the call off and then roll out the put. We'll see how this trade works out.