XLI trade ideas
Don't Be A (High) Beta, Brah! $XLI $XLUI have been a huge component of growth slowing, and the cyclical/defensive proxy of XLI/XLU is a clear indicator that the growth outlook is mixed at best.
Not only that, you might be a beta (probably the bad kind). When you see both growth and inflation slowing on a rate of change basis on the back drop of higher volatility, you must always look to long low beta, short high beta (see Don't Be A MoMo ).
From today's Parallax Weekly:
Cyclical v Defensive (XLI/XLU) is hovering around a 11-month low. This is another indicator of slowing growth as cyclical revenue and earnings are heavily reliant on economic activity. This is also a high v low beta trade. The 3-year monthly beta 1.05 v .05. Since October 1, XLI is down 11.58 percent opposed to a 3.59 percent gain for XLU over the same period.
On a relative basis, XLU has outperformed XLI by 15.17 percent. And those long Bitcoin are missing that.
XLI - Bullish US IndustrialsAnother US sector chart fitting the mold for a 5th wave up. Bouncing nicely between it's yearly R1/S1 pivots.
According to FIb. Could be an awesome dip to buy the XLIAccording to fibs from 07/08 high/lows.... Could see some more run in the XLI. Looking for $85.
XLI don't ignore what just happenedWell, with industrials falling out of bed the last momentum growth areas crumbled. Tighten up your longs, Mr Market taking us for a ride.
Industrials - should provide more fuel to the bullmarketLooks like the industrials are still poised to deliver fuel to this raging bull market. When it gets into the major top zone, I'll start becoming more defensive in my portfolio allocation
XLI - IndustrialsXLI is popping up here for high IV, going to take advantage of it.
-1 Oct19 76/78 Strangle for $2.49 cr
Risk: 2x cr received
Profit: 50% of max profit
Breakevens: $73.51 and $80.49
Still strong in a weekly overall rangeLooks to at least complete meas.move in the up channel. Watching copper as well which is weak, as a lower input cost maybe this helps XLI, but overall global demand appears soft. Consequently, looking to leg into short vertical call spread 80/83 area on weakness /exhaustion trigger
Key spot for industrialsI think this is a fairly key spot for XLI, where we might turn down, and turn down strongly. I think I will short here
XLI at this point odds very very good we go back to all time higI had posted some short ideas in CAT and BA past week. After yesterdays price action it sure looks like Industrials are ready to lift off. You need to be very very careful seeking weakness in any industrials
XLI - IndustrialsEarnings season is imminent here for most companies. A few of the industrials have been reporting recently too. I decided I'd throw a little premium on in here.
-1 Sep21 $75 straddle for $3.43 cr.
Risk: 1.5-2x credit received
Profit: 25-30% of credit received.
If we get a down move, I may just take the call off and then roll out the put. We'll see how this trade works out.
open 1 XLI 21 sep 76 straddlesell 1 XLI 21 sep 76 call
sell 1 XLI 21 sep 76 put
credit received 3.19
theta 3.16
delta 0.41
probability of profit 53%
initial margin 1,519.18
looking to manage at 25% credit received
XLI Longpossible buy opportunity on xli, bullish descending triangle continuation.
BUY the break-out above $74.90ish mark.
Industrials catch-up playProbably the worst market-sector hit with trade-war headline risk but has the most upside given current prices.
Industrials ETF Runs Into Resistance @ Logical LevelSupport & Resistance Visualized with Automatic Lines
These custom support resistance indicator lines show decent places to enter or exit.
The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter.
If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long.
If your instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting.
For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts).
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