XLU Long1. Market Structure Overview
A notable Change of Character (CHoCH) occurred at 84.09, breaking below a prior higher low and signaling a shift from bullish to bearish momentum. This was followed by a clear Break of Structure (BOS) at 83.40, confirming the bearish sentiment and initiating a new lower low sequence.
2. Supply and Demand Zones
Supply Zones (Resistance):
85.00–85.55: Strongest supply zone where multiple bearish rejections originated.
84.75–85.00: Closest overhead supply zone—price is expected to react if it reaches this area.
Demand Zones (Support):
84.00–84.20: Local demand that initiated the recent bullish push; possible short-term support.
83.10–83.40: Major demand zone that sparked the latest upward move; strong buyer interest observed.
3. Current Price Action & Expectation
Price is currently trading at 84.46, moving upward from the 84.00–84.20 demand zone. The near-term outlook suggests a continued push toward the 84.75–85.00 supply zone. If price can decisively break above 84.99, bullish momentum could extend toward 85.30–85.55.
However, if price rejects from 84.75–85.00, a pullback into 84.00–84.20 is expected before another attempt higher. A breakdown below 84.00 would open downside risk toward the stronger demand at 83.10–83.40.
4. Momentum & Risk Outlook
Momentum is gradually shifting bullish after forming a swing low near 83.40. Maintaining structure above that level is crucial for a bullish continuation. Watch for a clean break and retest of the CHoCH level at 84.99 to confirm strength.
