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SPDR Select Sector Fund - Utilities

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XLU trade ideas

THE WEEK AHEAD: XLU, XRT, EEM, FXI DIRECTIONALS, EWZ PREMIUMWith volatility at somewhat of an ebb here, I'm eyeing exchange-traded funds for directional plays in lieu of just hand sitting. The setup pictured here is of a XLU diagonal with the long dated option out in Dec, the front month in August. I would prefer setting this up as a skip month (Aug/Oct), but an Oct expiry isn't available yet. Here are the metrics: 5.43/contract debit, max profit on setup 1.57/contract, break even at 49.43 vs. 49.54 spot, debit paid/spread width ratio 77.6%. The debit paid/spread width ratio is a little higher than I'd ordinarily like (<75% is ideal), but it's also longer-dated, so I've got extra time to reduce cost basis if I need to. I'd look to take profit at 20% of what I put it on for (1.09) rather than going for max, which assumes a finish above the short call strike. A possible variation is to buy the Dec 44 and sell the Aug 50: 5.04 db/contract, max profit on setup .96/contract, break even at 49.04, debit paid/spread width ratio 84%. The variation lowers your break even by a half strike, thus giving you a smidge more of downside pro, but also lowers your profit potential, although you can certainly roll out any in the money short call to bring in additional credit should you want to go for greater than what the max was on setup. Other candidates for this sort of setup include: XRT (within 5% of its 52 week high; downside put diagonal), EEM (upside call diagonal; at long-term support), FXI (upside call diagonal; at long-term support). The basic setup for these is to sell the front month 30-delta strike and then buy a back month long such that your break even is slightly below where it's trading (in the case of upside call diagonals; you want the break even above spot with downside put diagonals) without paying more than 75% of the width of your spread. The one exchange traded fund that still has some juice in it is EWZ, with a background implied of around 34%. Although it's a little early to cycle into August (61 days until expiry), the Aug 17th 29/37 short strangle is paying .90/contract. Given the way it's imploded, however (it's near its 52-week low), I could also see taking a bullish directional shot here, too: the Aug/Dec 28/35 upside call diagonal costs 4.88 to put on, has a max profit of 2.12 on setup, a break even of 32.88 vs. 33.04 versus spot, and a debit paid/spread width ratio of 69.7%.
AMEX:XLU
by NaughtyPines
1
XLU buy 49$ Strike Call.Hey guys, this is Spencer and today I'm sharing a trade that I'm currently in and discuss why you can enter it as well! XLU is the SPDR utility ETF and is riding above its 50 day moving average. It is making a series of higher highs on the daily and I believe it will retest the 200 day moving average which is very close. I bought the September 49$ Strike for 3.10 and am looking to make 25% as minimum. Ultimately, with a longer timeview, this option could be worth even more. Take a look at my video and leave a comment. -I'm bullish XLU.
AMEX:XLULong
by TickTackTrades
4
OPENING: XLU JULY 20TH 47 LONG/MAY 18TH 51 SHORT CALL... for a 3.02/contract debit. This is a "properly" set up split month Poor Man's Covered Call where the credit received for the short exceeds the extrinsic in the long and has a neutral to bullish assumption. It's neutral because price can stay right here, and I can reduce cost basis further by rolling the short call out in time and/or it's bullish, because it will also benefit from movement of the underlying toward the short call strike. Metrics: Max Profit on Setup*: .82/contract Max Loss on Setup: 3.02/contract Break Even on Setup: 50.02 Price/Spread Width Ratio: 75.5%** Profit Target: 20% of debit paid or .60/contract * -- These metrics are only good at setup. When you roll the short call, the potential max profit and max loss metrics change because you've received additional credit and therefore reduce cost basis further. ** -- I generally like to see less than 75%, but this is in that neighborhood. Notes: Previously, most of my posts have involved directionally neutral setups like short strangles/straddles and iron condors/flies. These setups don't represent a change in tack over my traditionally agnostic approach to the market, but rather another tool in the tool box for those who want to take a longer-term, directional position in underlyings without ponying up for a full on covered call and/or want to reduce cost basis "up front" before exercising the long for shares.
AMEX:XLULong
by NaughtyPines
OPENING: XLU JUNE 47 LONG/APRIL 27TH 49.5 SHORT CALL DIAGONAL... for a 2.05/contract debit (82% of the width of the spread). Another defined risk, neutral to bullish assumption setup in the April cycle ... . The natural alternative would be to just sell short puts here (the April 20th 48's are paying .66; 32 delta), but the premium in those just didn't seem that worth it relative to buying power effect. For example, the general margin requirement for 48 short puts would be about 9.60 with the short puts returning about 6.9% on capital at max profit. In comparison, I'm looking for a quick and dirty ~10% ROC with this setup with the side benefits being that I'm not tying up a great deal of buying power, and I've got quite a bit of time to reduce cost basis in the long should it not go my way in short order ... .
AMEX:XLULong
by NaughtyPines
72% Probability trade on XLU (Big Lizard)The Utilities sector have been underperforming. With IV Rank of 67.5 and down around 10% since December we are getting at least some premium to sell. I don't want to risk a move upward, so I Sold a Big Lizard (Straddle at 51 and bought the 52 call) to eliminate the risk to the upside. This is a high probability trade above 70% and we make money as long as it stays above $49.82. The Trade: 38 days to expiration on Feb 16 Sell 51 Put Sell 51 Call Buy 52 Call Credit $1.18 Probability of profit 72%
AMEX:XLULong
by AlexanderGotay