XLU trade ideas
Sell Safety StocksUtilities and Real Estate sectors (XLU XLRE) both are down big on an up day for the overall market which is a signal that portfolio managers are rotating out of "safe" stocks and into "risk" stocks. Utilities chart looks like it is about to break below the 50 day after hitting all time highs at the 1.618 fib extension. What I like about shorting Utilities is that they sell off big for a few days in a row when they break down.
XLU - DAILY CHARTHi, today we are going to talk about XLU
We observe a D1, some important points. The details are highlighted above.
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Short Term Bull Bounce in XLU
XLU
Short Term (Today) - Probably get a bounce off of this 63.50 level.
Medium term bearish.
Long Term Neutral to bearish.
Do not trade based on my advice.
Your trades=Your responsibility.
Goodluck.
XLU Bear Flag Liquidation of utilities has begun. Makes sense as we're nearing the end of the year and they are up huge. Also make sense because they are a source of funds to buy laggards that could benefit from a tariff pause.
Goodluck.
AMEX:XLU
XLU Buyers hopping in again?The defensive utilities sector has been on a strong uptrend since 2018 as markets trembled with uncertainty and bulls threatened to buck. After some profit-taking at 65 dollars, there is reason to believe that there may be another leg up as buyers seem to be returning with bullish price actions observed last trading session.
Interest Rate Sensitive UtilitiesThe amount of money pouring into utilities is no joke. In a world of slow growth, low interest rates, and trade uncertainty... utilities are a no-brainer with stable earnings and dividends. But like anything that can seem like a no-brainer, over-crowed pilling occurs and price extension of the underlying can cause unrealistic valuation to long term perspectives. If you believe interest rates could rebound from historical lows than rotational selling of utility stocks could occur as portfolio managers reduce their exposure and lock in profits.
XLU has good option liquidity and I recommend call credit spreads and debit put spreads into Oct/Nov.
XLU Short signal comingShort XLU if weekly RSI > 70 and after a red weekly candle. Next week could be it
US SECTOR SERIES FINALE 11/11: UTILITIES(XLU)+ESSENTIAL TA NOTESSERIES FINALE ; Episode 11/11 : US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 31st of July 2019 (4 Minute Read)
Since this is the Series Finale I will try to holistically summarize the whole series of 11 Episodes on all the US sectors.
The essential notes from this chart are the following(also included in the comments) :
1 . Compared to the previous expansion of 2002-2007 ; the current expansion of US Utilities has yielded a much slower growth . This can be seen from the chart as the current bullish channel is at the bottom range of the pitchfork. Despite this fact, the volume has kept growing continuously from which statement several indications can be derived. To keep it simple and as obviously as it can be, a good portion of the volume growth can be attributed to the funds flow from asset classes that are based on inflation( pension funds, real estate, fixed income securities etc etc ) into equities characterised as defensive as part of XLU, XLP, XLV .
2 . From the cycle lines it can be seen that we narrowly escaped a recession in 2015-2016 . However, I do not think that this will be the case come by the next drop in the cycle circa-2021. Fundamentally, due to the low global growth that dominated the 2015-2016 correction particularly in the emerging markets-in effect due to President Trump the cycle extended . Despite my disagreement with his absurd trade and tax policies , I have to give credit where credit is due. Now at the same time, I do not think that a cycle extension is necessarily good; in a way it means that the fundamental & structural issues that develop in the economy during an expansion continue to build up even more. The higher it tops= the lower it will bottom (% wise).
3 . Elections 2020 , US/China trade deal and Brexit will dominate the negative momentum in the upcoming months and years. Global growth has slowed down quite a bit and it's way overdue for a recession. In fact, past June 2019, we have been in the longest expansion on record, lasting more than 10 years(122 months now).
Regarding the key takeaways from the XLU chart are all labelled above: structural supports, channel supports and bullish targets . I do not see a need to continually repeat myself . Make sure to check out the comments for detailed indicator analysis.
This episode concludes the show . Hope you enjoyed it- I certainly did.
This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research. For any use of this show for references to any corporations or individuals that get inspired from my ideas, I'd appreciate it I am being given credit for my efforts .
>>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>>
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Step_Ahead_oftheMarket-
Make sure to check all the previous episodes on the US Sectors for more holistic understanding :
EPISODE 10 : US COMMUNICATIONS ( XLC )
EPISODE 9 : US REAL ESTATE ( XLRE )
Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me through any of my channels.
XLU rising wedgeXLU in a rising wedge near top resistance point and at 1.618 extension with bearish divergence on the weekly. Pull back to 61.8 fib and volume profile area once wedge breaks.
XLU Utilities shortthis trade is for next 1-2months and I'm targeting at around 2% correction
MCClellan Summation Index was over 2k
XLU stock price forecast timing analysisStock investing strategies
Read more: www.pretiming.com
Investing position about Supply-Demand(S&D) strength: In Rising section of high profit & low risk
S&D strength Trend Analysis: In the midst of an upward trend of strong upward momentum stock price flow marked by the temporary falls and strong rises.
Today's S&D strength Flow: Supply-Demand(S&D) strength flow appropriate to the current trend.
D+1 Candlestick Color forecast: GREEN Candlestick
%D+1 Range forecast: 1.1% (HIGH) ~ -0.1% (LOW), 0.7% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of rising: 0.8% (HIGH) ~ -0.4% (LOW), 0.6% (CLOSE)
%AVG in case of falling: 0.4% (HIGH) ~ -0.8% (LOW), -0.4% (CLOSE)
Stock Price Forecast Timing Criteria: Stock price forecast timing is analyzed based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength.
LONG Idea - XLU Bouncing Off The Lower Trend LineUtilities are a good place to be with the current global slow down and a trade war here and there. Going long XLU should provide you with a good risk reward opportunity. XLU already bounced off the trend line turning up. A stop right under the trend line will limit your losses. Here is the daily chart and how it looks on a bigger time frame. Disclosure: this is no investment advice.
XLU rises after consolidation periodsUtilities are defensive and traditionally do well in summer, when risk stocks suffer from ‘Sell in May’. In the last six consolidations, which often start around May, the price moves up after the consolidation ends.
Overall, the ETF has followed a clear parallel channel for four years now, and it is affected much less by macro events.
Each consolidation has been followed by a rise of around 6.7% so an entry at 58 (.30 below current), with a stop of 56.50 (below the consolidation low and the lower current channel (in red, I have treated Xmas 2018 as an outlier), and a target of 62.50 (where the upper channel will be on Oct 31, traditionally the end of the summer season neatly gives a 3:1 trade to run for six months.
Not the most exciting of trades, but safer than most.
xlv + xle + xlu --- Low relative strength - China Deal???How would this look different if a Trade deal were imminent....
XLU - Short-term broadening formation pullbackXLU is in a broadening formation within a long-term bull channel. Finding support at the 50 day moving avg.
XLU possible meltdown to signal risk-on melt-on ala early 2018Think we could really melt down in XLU shortly, and that would result in a bit squeeze of indices like in 2018. Just hypothesis currently
XLU Bearish OutlookBear Case:
*Forming H&S
*Massive RSI Divergence
Bull Case:
*China
*** Looks like XLU might look to form a H&S, but based on how heavily the RSI has dropped, it might not even bother and just drop. In either case, Short the top of the Right Shoulder or a break of the neckline .... Let's talk about it! ***
