Health Care Sector Is A ShortAnother short setup based on a hidden bearish divergence in the OBV.
We also expect price losses in the Health Care sector in the medium term up to the range shown.
XLV trade ideas
Health Care ETF May Have Broken OutMany observers have spoken recently about market rotation. They often cite money shifting from megacaps to small caps. But another forgotten sector could be benefiting as well: healthcare.
The first pattern on today’s chart of the SPDR Select Sector Health Care ETF is the June 24 close of $147.09. XLV was trapped below this approximate level since late February, but crossed above it earlier in July. Prices are bouncing after retesting it last week. Has old resistance become new support?
Second, you have a series of higher weekly lows since mid-April. Those may reflect accumulation by long-term investors.
Third, prices are near the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Both SMAs are also near each other, which may create potential for price expansion.
Finally, MACD recently tuned positive.
Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above:
SPDR Select Sector Health Care ETF (XLV)
1-year: +9.81%
5-years: +58.70%
10-year: +142.80%
(As of June 28, 2024)
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XLV BreakoutThe XLV is breaking out after testing the $147-$148 area as resistance since late February. It finally broke out recently and came back down to retest the area as support yesterday, successfully. 1st Upside target is $157, followed by $162 for a secondary target. As markets are falling this week, healthcare typically does well in a bear market, so this breakout makes sense. Also, volume has gone up with the breakout, confirming price action
Healthcare sector strongAMEX:XLV had a breakout this week and looks to have successfully retested the breakout and bounced today (July 19, 2024)
Many names in the sector are reporting in the next few weeks and are expected to post good numbers and improved guidance
can see new ATH in the next few weeks IMO
good RR with stop on daily close below 146
XLV is shaping falling wedgeBullish context: weekly uptrend
Price position: near last weekly trend low
Pattern: four consecutive red days with little upthrust (progression of lows)
It looks like previous weekly consolidation area is providing support, and bears are too exhausted to break through it now.
This provides an opportunity for a long play. An example of possible trade is shown on the chart. It is important that today closes above 138.6, otherwise, setup is invalidated
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
XLV is in tight equilibrium; will break soonAMEX:XLV has formed a five-week equilibrium. The price contraction is already quite tight, indicating that this equilibrium could break very soon. The context is highly bullish: the XLV price is on a weekly uptrend, and the broader market is also showing strong performance. The odds are in favor of an upside breakout.
On the chart, there is an example of a possible trade. Please note that while I’m not a fan of diagonal levels, I’ve drawn the triangle solely to illustrate the idea of equilibrium
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
XLV Weekly Chart The healthcare sector seems really indecisive if you ask me. Look at all those doji candlesticks. I see why you're not supposed to make moves on these type of candle prints. Especially for someone like me who is a trend trader by nature. We have no choice but to wait and see which way the market wants to move. Up, down, or continue this slight sideways movement. Let me know what you think.
The Healthcare Sector Index $XLV - Worth Watching SPDR Select Sector Fund – Healthcare Index AMEX:XLV
The chart speaks for itself, we have our breakout levels and our break down levels. We enter on a breakout and set a stop 5% under that support and we exit and or short if we fall under the two underside support levels.
Below I outline some reasons why the healthcare sector is worth paying attention too.
The healthcare industry is worth $808 billion in the United States as of 2021. 65% of the industry’s revenue comes from patient care. The global healthcare industry is worth $12 trillion.
In the U.S National health expenditures are projected to grow 5.4 percent, on average, over the course of 2023–31 and to account for roughly 20 percent of the economy by the end of that period. The insured share of the population is anticipated to exceed 92 percent through 2023 (figures pending), in part as a result of record-high Medicaid enrolment, and then decline toward 90 percent as coverage requirements related to the COVID-19 public health emergency expire.
The growth of the health-care sector is evident in employment data as well. In 1990, about 8 million Americans worked in health care; that figure has since doubled to 16 million. That’s the largest single employment segment in our economy.
In addition to the above, the west in general is an aging populace that is living longer. We will need these services more than we need staples during a recession. I believe this index can help us gauge the healthcare sector and what direction it will go next. We can watch the levels outlines and make a play if we wish. We have a hard upper boundary and lower boundary on a parallel channel on the chart. You know what to do when we breach any of these levels.
Outlined on the chart
XLV fund provides exposure to companies in
pharmaceuticals, health care equipment and supplies,
health care providers and services, biotechnology, life
sciences tools and services, and health care
technology industries. XLV is the oldest in the
segment, as such it is used widely for strategic or
tactical positions. Since XLV is both cap weighted
and fishes only from the S&P 500, it tilts heavily
toward mega-caps. For focused exposure to
leading health care names, XLV is tough to beat.
Top Five Holdings
UnitedHealth Group Inc NYSE:UNH 9.63%
Eli Lilly and Co NYSE:LLY 9.19%
Johnson & Johnson NYSE:JNJ 7.46%
Merck & Co NYSE:MRK 5.46%
AbbVie Inc 5.41%
Stay Healthy and Nimble Folks
PUKA
XLV bearHealthCare looks to have just closed the week with a failed breakout.
Getting a weekly close below the impulse breakout green canceled is never a good sign.
technical overbought instrument awaiting pullback
XLV diamond top - remember XLU?AMEX:XLU has long been considered a safe sector for fixed income. Increasing cost of debt and regulatory restrictions on revenue with continued rising rates eventually pushed the largest growth opportunities in the sector out of favor and put downward pressure on the entire sector. Before the market came to appreciate this fundamental shift we can observe a diamond top formation.
Diamond tops are bearish and a break below them experiences an average 20% decline. We can also take potential ranges from the measured height of the pattern and from 50% of the height of the pattern.
We can see a diamond top formation with $XLV. I'm uncertain of what catalysts could pressure the healthcare sector at this time or when we would potentially see them. However, understanding the potential market reaction let's us prepare to protect positions or to capitalize on lows for long term opportunities.
XLV - Failed Breakout?HealthCare looks to have just closed the week with a failed breakout.
Getting a weekly close below the impulse breakout green canceled is never a good sign.
Off of Bearish consolidation some Health care stocks may be a good short play.
Using the up-sloping trend line & weekly 200 MA as support.
Using the Weekly 100 MA as resistance . Recapturing the Weekly 100 MA could result in upside reversal.
XLV still coiling, possible double top on the daily? On the weekly timeframe XLV continues to coil.
On the daily timeframe we may have seen a double top after the rejection at the bottom of the gap (136.50 area).
FWIW these options can move, but they are low volume. On high momentum days trading the same week can be effective. Personally, I prefer to bid for calls on red days and puts on green days with swing trade straddle targets in mind.
I'm currently eyeing the gap above but a breakdown with a stronger market pullback is possible. I will be looking to add a long swing position after the Jackson Hole / JPow speech depending on market conditions.
XLVVery similar setup to COST prior to it breaking out a few months ago. COST made it all the way to the apex before breaking out. I don't think this one will take that long but I'll be keeping an eye on this chart later into the year for another move similar to COST.
$XLV Healthcare Pharma - Wait for it.....Watch this one closely to hit that trend line. If it bounces we could see it finally take out all time highs within the next 2 months HUGE gains.
XLV - Healthcare Sector Outlook Healthcare - XLV
Health Care: Companies involved in healthcare-related services, including pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, hospitals, and health insurance.
Economic Cycle Sensitivity: Health care companies tend to be less sensitive to economic cycles. The demand for health care products and services remains relatively stable, driven by factors such as population demographics, technological advancements, and healthcare needs. However, during economic downturns, there may be some impact on discretionary healthcare spending.
Top 20 Health Care Companies:
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
Novartis AG (NVS)
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)
Amgen Inc. (AMGN)
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD)
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
AstraZeneca PLC (AZN)
GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK)
Medtronic plc (MDT)
Abbott Laboratories (ABT)
Sanofi (SNY)
Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)
Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX)
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO)
Biogen Inc. (BIIB)
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX)
Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH)
Technical Overview:
The healthcare sector has been trading in larger range dating back to April 2021 between the prices of 118.75 - 143.42.
On the Weekly and Monthly charts XLV has broken out of a large pennant with lots of volume. This could signal a big move in stocks heavily weighted in the healthcare sector.
At the end of the week of July 17th, XLV closed above structure closing at 136.24.
Although we still have one week left in this month, XLV has the potential to make a move up to the high of the monthly range to 143.42. This move could take a few months 2-3 or more.
With the previous higher low on the weekly created by such a large candle, there could be a pull next week or two before continuing upward.
Monitor tickers within this sector as the CLV makes it move. This chart should help provide some day trading and swing opportunities over the next few weeks or so.
If swinging anything, watch for any major news or earnings along the way.
Last thing, Although the healthcare sector isn't necessarily affected by the economic cycle, this big move/breakout could be an indicator of money rotating from tech, etc ...
XLV - Horizontal Trend Channel🔹Breakout ceiling trend channel in short-term
🔹Breakout resistance at 136, next resistance at 140.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
Inverse H&SInverse Head and Shoulders.
Price has 1 close above the neckline. Some would wait for 2 closes above the neckline.
NO recommendation
Overbought with RSI set on 70
XLV health care; Bearish BreakdownContinued weakness should follow for many health care stocks.
A bearish breakdown has been observed, this sector does typically get strong technical oversold bounces.
I see a daily chart pattern down to sub $126
Health Care SPDR "XLV" Looking Very BullishS+P SPDR XLV Health Care ETF was the strongest industry group on 7/14/23.
XLV technical price pattern is looking very bullish !
Shown here on the Institutional 4 Hour Chart, it shows clearly that health care stocks
are under "accumulation" by big money investors.
Interestingly, health care is considered a defensive play,
so institutional money managers may now be beginning to rotate "out"
of the high flying technology sector in a flight to quality.
The 4 Hour KST Indicator on XLV is now approaching a Buy Signal Confirmation.
XLV Close 7/14/23 131.70
THE_UNWIND
WOODS OF CONNECTICUT
$XLV - in a symmetrical triangleAMEX:XLV Has been consolidating for about 2 years now. Currently in a symmetric triangle. If it breaks out it can head to $140. Downside risk is $127. 👀ing.
XLV is weakening....ishIf XLV can't hold its rate of change level (.214 fib), that doesn't portend well for the sector. I look for it to break soon.
XLVLook at all your indicators on the weekly..
The Money flow , CCI , and Bollinger bands are my Favorite; all 3 are telling me a reversal is here..
Entry - over 125
Stop loss - 123.50
Target 130 then 134
XLVThis is the second biggest sector and a big reason the Dow has been dumping.
Currently outside its daily Bollinger band and its weekly Money flow is oversold..
I'm expecting a major rally in Health this month
Let's see how XLV reacts after 126.50 gap close.. I'm not expecting a V shap recovery...
Maybe some around 126-128 to form a bullish pattern then we lift to resistance.
Wait for gap close
