2023 Market Crash2023 Market Crash
Is Confirmed.
You heard that right traders.
A consistent indicator over the past 20 years is confirming many fears of a recessions and market crash will occur in 2023.
XLV trade ideas
DOUBLE BOTTOMS ON DAILY SET UP NICELY I mean just look at the technicalas, I don't really have to say much here lol. Maybe watch closely for rsi to hit bounce off 50 fist or just getttonninnn because this suckered has been rallying up like it's been in its own stock market this whole year.
XLV Short IdeaAfter regarding the 200SMA Daily as Resistance,
forms a Diamond Reversal w/ Triple MACD + RSI Hidden Bearish Divergence
w/ 4 Hour MACD Bearish Divergence
Looking for a breakout and to see how markets open this week before a final decision, loosen or tighten targets as you will.
GIVE ME FEEDBACK
** NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE **
$XLV - ~$147 by end of DecLooks primed for an extra 10% move up within 15-30 days starting since a few days now. See attached chart/image.
imgur.com
MACD / Price Divergence and Resistance Level on XLVAMEX:XLV
Price reaching a multiple test resistance level that goes back to end of April with a MACD / Price action divergence and MACD roll-over to negative.
XLV (Healthcare sector) Correction almost underwayIf you were trading tech and didn't notice , there was huge selling in the Healthcare sector , with most stocks down 4-7%.
This downturn was the main reason the Dow was down 300 points.
XLV is trading up in supply area and also forming a pretty decent size rising wedge which indicates the sector is near a correction.
I also saw alot of "Aero defense" selling to. Health care, Utilities and Aero defense were sectors investors flocked to for safety when rate increases started being announced, so I'm wondering is this just smart money rotating
back into growth or a the beginning of a larger overall market sell off?.
Here's a list of Stocks in this sector that will be exposed
www.marketwatch.com
XLV - Third Wave Down - ShortXLV has set up over the past few months and is now in a corrective wave, reached resistance and is headed down toward corrective wave C.
XLV headed to 117Second biggest sector in the S&P500 looks to be headed back to its primary trendline (Purpleline) after getting rejected on bear channel(Yellow) . This move should help push the S&P to low 340s.
Will have the biggest impact on Dow Jones because of United health
$XLV Potential 3-1-2 bearish Reversal on the Quarterly Chart$XLV is showing a potential 3-1-2 bearish reversal on the quarterly chart.
Because of this, I'll be looking to short healthcare stocks.
XLVStill holding $125 for now. Is price consolidating for a move higher or will the bearish divergence hold & make this a top?
XLV BUYSimply TA, XLV has been re-testing 124 support for past couple years now. Expect XLV to bounce at 124, if not, SL below 120 area, which has very high probability of holding.
SHORT | XLVAMEX:XLV
Possible Scenario: SHORT
Evidence: Price Action, Money-Flow, Rejection at 200MA,
TP1: 128$
TP1: 126$
This is my idea and could be wrong 100%.
RectangleNeutral pattern until a trendline is broken.
Bearish Marubozu with both ends shaven on Friday. Spinning top right now that can change by close.
No recommendation,
This ETF is still above the .382 of the trend up (blue dashed line)
Top 10 Holdings
UnitedHealth Group Inc
10.20%
Johnson & Johnson
9.21%
Pfizer Inc
5.68%
Eli Lilly and Co
5.21%
AbbVie Inc
5.08%
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc
4.70%
Merck & Co Inc
4.53%
Abbott Laboratories
3.82%
Danaher Corp
3.78%
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co
3.15%
Healthcare staying sidewaysSafe bet when recession fears come in, cool off when good news give hope.
The health care sector ($XLV) is looking bullish!Notes:
* It seems like the health care sector is making an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
* A break out from this pattern could mean that health care stocks lead the market and the sector may see new all-time-highs.
* Be on the lookout for trade ideas in this sector as it's showing tonnes of accumulation recently
* You may also look to buy the sector ETF if it makes a daily close above the white trend line with higher than average volume.
Green in the sea of red: Healthcare (1)Summary
This week we are sharing 2 rebound trade opportunities in healthcare and biotech, AMEX:XLV and AMEX:XBI , which are showing relative strength against S&P500 and Nasdaq , making them better candidates to trade for rebound.
Since the beginning of 2022, skyrocketing inflation and increasing recession risk have pushed the broad equity markets to the downside. S&P500 is down more than 20% from peak, while the more tech heavy Nasdaq is down close to 30% from peak as of today. If we look back the whole rally, it all started during Mar-2020 as the Fed reacted aggressively toward covid by massive money printing (i.e. quantitative easing). In fact both S&P500 and Nasdaq are now getting closer to the 250 weeks moving average, which is approximately where the post-covid rally had broken the pre-covid peak. Rebound is very likely to happen as “where it started” is usually a strong resistance level that slows correction.
S&P500
Nasdaq100
To execute this trade, instead of directly longing the indexes, healthcare and biotech sector ETF, AMEX:XLV and AMEX:XBI are showing relative strength against S&P500 and Nasdaq100, which make them better candidates to trade the idea. Fundamentally speaking, we believe the reason behind the strength is due to the irreversible trends of aging population across the globe especially among developed countries; as well as in the seemingly more frequent pandemic outbreaks during recent years. Both trends create steady demand for healthcare and need for biotechnological innovation. The MRNA technology is a good recent example to illustrate the importance of biotechnological innovation in fighting pandemic.
We recommend more conservative traders to execute the idea with AMEX:XLV (this post), while more aggressive traders can go with AMEX:XBI (link here: ) which is relatively volatile.
Note : XBI also come with 3X leveraged ETF AMEX:LABU (bullish) and AMEX:LABD (bearish) for those who are looking for more leverage with same amount of capital
Technical
AMEX:XLV is still outperforming major indexes. Instead of downtrend, AMEX:XLV is still in a consolidation period. AMEX:XLV has been trading in extending box range since Oct-2021, with 1 extension to the upside in Dec-2021, and 1 extension to the downside this year on Jun-13.
The more than 8 months of consolidation period has flattened the 250 days moving average, yet not bending it downward (yet?). 20 days and 50 days moving averages have been crossing each other multiple times during the consolidation period, making them less indicative from a technical perspective. Currently AMEX:XLV is trading below 250 days moving average, tested but failed to penetrate the moving average on Jul-8, if it still cannot get above the 250 days moving average in the coming months, the downside pressure will materialize into an actual down trend.
In summary, these are the important levels one should pay attention to:
Downside support
118.75: Jun-13 new box bottom
109.74: Post covid peak before rallying to the upside
Upside resistance
132.04: Jul-8 attempt of breaking 250 days moving average
143.42: Apr-8 new box top
Healthcare sector - Buying the reversal of inverted HnSThe megaphone structure has completed the 5-wave structure and is likely to enter into the next phase of the bullish upside after a morning star candle formation is seen rebounding from the demand zone at 124.95. To add, the inverted head and shoulder pattern is indicative of a bullish reversal pattern.
$XLV:$KRE: Deflation winners and losersWe're seeing value health care ($XLV) show a lot of relative strength against other sectors as the dollar has been pushing. ($KRE) is often tied to growth when compared to it's bigger brother ($XLF) and eventhough financials do tend to benefit from rising rates, this has been much more of a hard landing and the financial rotation many expect may not come to pass, instead look for $XLV to continue soaking up 2022 when compared to other sectors.
Is The Bear Making You Sick? Time To Get Right With Healthcare!Bear markets, economic slow downs, recessions, inflation, the Fed, Jerome Powel, etc... It's enough to make anyone feel sick. Well, step right into the Doctors office because I have the cure for what is making you ill. But before I start writing prescriptions, we need to apply a diagnosis. First let us review the causes:
Soaring Commodities.
Crashing Growth.
Incoming Recession.
As this bug works its way through your system its going to manifest itself with several symptoms. Currently you're experiencing the following:
Inflation.
Bear Market.
Rising Rates.
As your natural immune system fights this off, you're going to experience the following side effects:
Deflation.
Decreased Earnings.
Falling Rates.
None of this is going to make you feel any better however. That's where the Doctor comes in. Allow me to explain. As the economy slows down we're going to experience cyclicals such as Semi's continuing their weakness and the Commodities will be rolling over. But the rising rates will crimp economic growth which will weaken earnings and put pressure on valuations. Eventually the FED will be forced to slow or stop their rate raising program as the economy grinds to a halt. This will hurt investors looking for yield. Not a great scenario for stocks. What's a sick investor to do?
You need alpha, yield, and protection from an economic slowdown. There's only one sector that can offer all three and that is Healthcare.
Healthcare is relatively resistant to any slow down in the economy, offers some yield in $XLV and some alpha in $XBI.
Both charts are ratio charts comparing the relative strength of Healthcare vs Semi's and Commodities.
The top chart is a monthly candle chart of $XLV the S&P Healthcare SPDR ETF vs $DBC The Broad Commodity ETF. The ratio rises when $XLV is out performing and falls when its under performing. As you can see the ratio is sitting right on an area of support and a hammer candle has formed after a protracted period of under performance. Implications are for a reversal that favors $XLV.
The bottom chart is a weekly line chart of $XBI the S&P Biotech ETF vs $SOXX the Philly Semiconductor ETF. Just like the above chart, the ratio rises as $XBI out performs and falls when it under performs. Just recently $XBI has reversed the trend of under performance and broke out through the downward trend line. The trend favors further out performance from $XBI.
I hereby prescribe to you the following pairs trades:
Long $XLV and Short $DBC.
Long $XBI and Short $SOXX.
Please start the prescription as soon as you can have it filled and keep the trade on for the rest of the year until January 1st 2023. Come back to see me for a follow up visit. Please make your appointment ahead of time as I book up fast.
I hope you feel better soon.
Sincerely, your Doctor.
XLV: 2YR Daily Macro Data & Popular Indicators For ML AnalysisThis chart was created to accompany a blog post which explores leveraging machine learning (RNN: LSTM) using Tensorflow Keras and SHAP to determine which factors (indicators and correlations with Macro, such as oil futures prices, Fed Funds rate, consumer spending, etc) are found by the model to be the most predictive in nature.
Findings will be posted in the comments.
