Symmetrical TriangleLooks like a Symmetrical Triangle within a large Rectangle.
Both patterns are neutral until a trendline is broken.
NO Recommendation.
XLV trade ideas
Rectangle/Cyphers Versus Sharks/Inverted HammerXLV appears to be bouncing around in a rectangle for quite some time. It is a fairly wide rectangle which is neutral until a trendline is broken.
XLV appears to have formed a W pattern inside that rectangle that topped out at the 1.113 which caused a throwback and price landed back inside the rectangle. If you take a look at the bottom valleys of the W (almost like a double bottom), valley 2 is slightly lower than valley 1. So, if you flipped this over, it would be peak 1 and peak 2, and peak 2 would be higher than peak 1, but only if you flipped it over. You have to use your imagination here (o: This narrows harmonic patterns down to a Bearish Shark of a Bearish Cypher. The cypher should have reversed at the .786, so in my pea brain, this is a Bearish Shark which can land at the .886 or the 1.113 fib levels. This landed at the 1.113.
Since this is a W and not an M, that is the first clue it May (and I stress May) be a bearish pattern in the end. But you can go long on that last W leg if you recognize the pattern. Just be sure to get out at the top of that last leg.
Spinning top right this second as today's candle. The candle may change by close. This is a candle of indecision like a Doji which has practically no body to speak of.
Very long wicked Inverted Hammer 4 trading days ago. An inverted hammer performs at it's best at a level of support and at a bottom, but when this same candle is at the top, it is a shooting star which is bearish and can mean a reversal is looming. The wick must be at least 2 times the length of the body and usually the candle body is small. The color is not so important. At the bottom, or at support, it can show the bears that the bulls can take price higher, even though price does not close at the high. This can make a bear a bit nervous to see how high price traded that session, so they may cover their short if they have enough profit.
The high and low are the same on red and green candles. The top of the upper wick is the high and the bottom of the lower shadow is the low. The open and the close do differ however as a red candle has a close at the bottom and a green candle has a close at the top.
Engulfing candles can also be a reversal candle pattern even if just short term. Opposite colors best and the second candle totally swallows the 1st candle in this pattern.
No recommendation.
Be safe/Laura
XLV - OBV divergence says it's time to go shortMr. Market is happy today! So what am I doing? Searching for short opportunities, of course. XLV fits the bill.
As you can see, there's a rather significant On Balance Volume divergence with price. This is often a leading indicator signifying a potential price reversal. I'm going to wait just a bit for it to get below the red support line but then jump right in. I still think we have a leg left to go down before the ultimate bottom.
Healthcare is still a defensiveA wide mover, but still an uptrend. That's where you want to be today - no inflation worries, solid companies grow being still attractively valued.
XLV / Healthcare: A Path into Support before Going LongWhile the equity indices have been setting up bearishly especially on the longer-term charts, one bright spot is Healthcare and the SPDR ETF tracking this sector AMEX:XLV . Given the weakness in the indices, bullish positioning should be avoided unless (1) the position is short-term, tactical and position sized, or (2) the position is within a defensive sector that is outperforming in terms of relative strength and has strong trend structure.
Along with Utilities and Energy, Healthcare has been an outperformer since the beginning of this year. Over the past year, its performance is slightly above the mid-range of all sectors (see linked idea US Sector Performance using Equal-Weighted Sector ETFs). But YTD, its performance has been stronger, and it is maintaining a good uptrend structure.
Since its peak on April 8, 2022, XLV appears to be forming an A-B-C Elliott Wave correction. Using Fibonacci projections of the "A" wave, and projecting the length of that wave from the April 14 high (the end of the larger B wave), a target of 134.68 would mean larger wave A and larger wave C are roughly equal, a common proportionality in A-B-C corrective patterns.
RSI on the 78m, 130m, and 4 hour charts all point to further downside before any bounce may occur. The RSI line is trending well below its 13 EMA .
Wave C should unfold in 5 waves according to EW principles (because it moves in the direction of the corrective pattern of one larger degree, i.e., the larger ABC corrective pattern). Wave 1 of C should also contain 5 sub-waves. Without cluttering the chart with the smaller sub-waves of Wave C, my own count suggests wave 1 is complete and wave 2 is underway or complete. That leaves about 3 waves more downward in the coming days before a buying opportunity might present itself.
Long Health SectorRebounce right on that pivot level.
With series of retracements, it's now form a well support level.
I am bullish on coming trends, let's hoping it makes wild rally soon.
XLV is setting up to move higher!Keep it simple: ADX looking good, MACD looking good. Looks like XLV will be trending up for a week or so.
Sector performance since the bottom on the 15th of MarchIn my last published Idea I showed the sector performance YTD till about the 14th. Now the market has turned and the best performers are the worst performers
to the 14th from January 1. So now you know where the most action is and the least. It might be smart to buy some QQQ as it is heavily weighted with the best 3
performing sectors- XLY,XLK,XLC. The upward bull run could change depending on what happens over the next month especially with the Ukraine war happening
and inflation and the FOMC meetings. Oil prices are forecast to slowly rise this year so the Fed is going to be challenged.
The sectors of the S&P 500 YTD and the SPY PerformanceThe worst 3 are Consumer discretionary, Communication Services and the SPY
$XLV vs $BETZ: Deflation vs InflationYou could add long dollar to this pair as well but looking for the Fed rate hikes to take the wind out of the sails for highly exposed inflation names while those that benefit from deflation to shine (XLV). Rate hikes have oscillated between March and April and we will need oil / aggs to come off their highs.
Head and ShouldersThis pattern is not valid until neckline is broken. The neckline is a strong source of support until it is broken. Then the neckline becomes resistance.
After the neckline is broken and one wanted to go short, one may place their stop above the neckline.
I am being sure this neckline breaks before thinking short entry as healthcare seems to be a good place to be. But I am actually beginning to wonder if there is a good place to be right now )o:
No recommendation.
Heiken-ashi candles and definitely a bad top by eyeballing it )o:
Neutral until neckline is broken.
Possible rick on for healthcareMassive caps with minor business have pulled the sector down, despite the really strong defensives still looking good, Risk on can come back here
1/30/22 XLVSPDR Select Sector Fund - Health Care ( AMEX:XLV )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: - B
Current Price: $130.48
Breakout price: $130.70
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $128.90-$124.90
Price Target: $136.80-$137.80 (1st), $144.50-$146.20 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 41-43d (1st), 88-91d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $XLV 2/18/22 130c, $XLV 5/20/22 130c
Trade price as of publish date: $2.75/contract, $4.05/contract
Healthcare to overperformHealthcare sector includes both defensive stocks and high risk biotech volatile stocks, so this is particular etf might be tricky. Late cycle is finishing, so defensives will see high demand quite soon, care to choose good stocks
healthcare is outperforming the broader market (XLV)when an overweight sector corrects with the market volatility is higher in general, but thats why it bounces so much more quickly and outperforms other sectors in the same trend.
sector rotation will have a play in healthcare if we find a higher low, and bulls have given themselves room to complete that reversal.
we should make a higher low somewhere, even if its closer to the bottom than i anticipate, and continue to rally faster than other parts of the market as stocks benefitting from inflow seeking value accumulates.
XLVDaily Chart Report
XLV got a nice bounce off support with increasing volume. But I would be very careful because it is still below the $129 resistance level and below the 200D moving average. For XLV to show some strength it needs to get above the $131 resistance level.
Healthcare is still in a bull market - be longAt the start of 2022, healthcare stocks have gotten killed, especially anything that was a winner in the past 1-2 years. A lot of people are getting rather bearish, but they shouldn't be. The fundamentals favor healthcare still in many ways, and momentum is still rather strong. We already got the breakout in healthcare stocks, and we just got the retest, which was enough to scare a lot of people out. Now is a great entry for a long position, coming out of a short consolidation into a potential new bull phase.
Bullish Candle in Health Care as Key Conference BeginsThe SPDR Health Care ETF Health care has pulled back after a sharp rally in December. Some interesting patterns are also appearing on the chart.
First, XLV stands out because it was the first major sector fund to go positive yesterday. Its 1 percent gain also made it the top performer in the session.
Second, the bounce followed a drop to a one-month low and took out Friday’s high. That kind of large bullish outside candle is a potential reversal pattern. It could mark the end of a six-day skid.
Next, it’s noteworthy that buyers stepped in to defend the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
In addition, Monday’s low was near a previous high on November 26. A downward-sloping trendline along the highs of September and November could also be turning from old resistance to new support.
Finally, you have an active calendar. The 40th Annual J.P. Morgan HealthCare Conference takes place this week, followed by quarterly results from top holdings UnitedHealth (1/19) and Johnson & Johnson (1/25).
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$XLV looks risky (3/5)Conviction: 4/5
Health Care sector looks quite risky. It is touching long-term resistance (2008).
RSI-W is also putting in a seeming-start to bearish divergence.
Major indicator (perhaps) if this breakdown from short-term support.
Historically this could mean another few months of uptrend, but longer term this does not look good for the sector.
However, it is looking quite attractive relative to SPY, so could be a good place to hide when things go to the pooper.
$XLV going to outperform $SPY (5/5)Conviction: 5/5
Health Care ( AMEX:XLV ) is looking very attractive relative to S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY ), just bounced off of long-term (2022) support on a relative basis.
RSI-M at oversold levels (obviously), while RSI-W seems to have put in a bullish divergence?
Let's see which channel wins, but I think long-term one is stronger.
$XLV set to outperform $SPY (4/5)Conviction: 4/5
Relative performance of Health Care against S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY ) looks pretty good for the long term. However, it recently broke below support sooo not 100% sure, possibly 90% sure.
However, $XLV seems like it might be ready for a drop based on its own trends.
signal for near-term drop of the markets?
