XLY/XLPSolid move away from 1.618 resistance today. Appears the bull market may continue a little longer.
XLY trade ideas
$XLY relative to SPY bullish breakoutXLY top weighted stocks : Tesla, HD, Amazon, MCD ..
Showing STRENGTH relative to SPY with bullish breakout of pennant and breakout of the recent down trend line....
While Apple and Microsoft are turning down, Tesla has been strong grinding it's way to over $800 and appears to be headed for ATH's next...
It will be interesting to see if we get a big breakout in XLY as we enter the end of year and Santa rally where consumer's are bound to increase their spending...
$XLY potential breakoutXLY Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF saw a buyer of the 12/17 187C for $2.5M in premium last week
Top holdings are AMAZON and TESLA. I like both these stocks from a technical perspective and a "cheaper" trade would be to go long XLY :) (Higher premiums on AMZN and TSLA).
From a technical perspective XLY has bullish Momo and a strong close above 21EMA. Looking for a $186 blue sky breakout this week and she can really fly.
Also worth noting 9/20 Wyckoff "more effort less result" which is a bullish indication - notice the high volume from the sellers (exhaustion) with price action staying above the 8/17 lows.
Consumer Cyclicals 23.08Bounce setup, Stochastic coming out of oversold, first major resistance at ATH
XLY/SPYSee Chart - XLY looks to push higher in the 3M Channel
AMZN, TSLA, and HD are top weighted companies in XLY
XLY/XLP - Leads TNXDiscretionary vs. Staples = Economy Bullish / Economy Bearish
Ratio rising = Discretionary > Staples
Ratio falling = Discretionary < Staples
Often a leading indicator of the 10yr yield (TNX)
Will continue to track this potential new signal.
Risk appetite in the markets? Checking the $XLY / $XLP quotientI have this quotient in my watchlist to monitor the risk appetite of the market. The AMEX:XLY ETF (Consumer Discretionary) is a good indicator of high risk appetite because its holdings are more focus on growth therefore are more volatile. And the AMEX:XLP ETF (Consumer Staples) is more focus in value stocks, therefore less volatile.
AMEX:XLY with holdings like NASDAQ:AMZN , NASDAQ:TSLA and NYSE:MCD . And AMEX:XLP with holdings like NYSE:KO , NASDAQ:PEP and NASDAQ:COST .
Right now the quotinet XLY/XLP is near a breakout off a base to make an all time high, while its 20 day moving average is croosing the 50 moving average. This are good news to this bull market.
XLY/XLPConsolidating at a reasonable level. We'll continue to see a different market than we've had over the past few years as long as this ratio is below the 1.618 extension imo.
Sector Comparison (This is not financial advice)
Hey guys, just a quick comparison between the different sectors. Take it as wish just thought it was interesting to see which is the most profitable over the past few months.
- Vlaire
last time I bought I returned over 100% DKNG has formed another Elliott correction wave abc. Whats more, XLY is still looking bullish which means we can expect DKNG to go up higher. Got my eye on
21st May $65.00 Call.
How to know if a stock is ready?Inter-market analysis is the forefront of this questions. If you notice a fractal on a lower time frame of a stock seek corroboration with its respective sector. If you notice the sector going up most likely the stock will follow. The fractals help me identify entry points.
The importance of inter market analysis TSLA v.s XLY This is how I knew Tesla was ready to reach new highs. Stocks tend to follow their respective sectors. I noticed the fractal on XLY a few weeks and recently started noticing the same pattern open TSLA, this means that Tesla is looking to head up. I only trade Elliott Correction Waves. I do this because it's the only tradable pattern that I can quickly observe. Every other pattern is noise to me. Most market moves in a perpetual series of impulse and corrections waves. There are three kinds of Elliot wave corrections, running, regular and irregular flats. Tesla's chart pattern is a prime example of a running flat Elliott correction wave. We observe a similar pattern for XLY reinforcing the readiness of Tesla stock for further upside.
Recovery in MotionThe more I make these posts, you will see how much I enjoy investing and swing trading Sector Select SPDR ETFs. Besides Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE), the Consumer Discretionary (XLY) industries are great places to be situated in during a rebound in the economy. With interest rates projected to rise, many have come to believe that inflation has risen above its short - term target thus signaling rapid economic growth. As someone who works part - time and is in school Full - Time, it is hard to thoroughly perform TA and FA for the "top" stocks. That's why I enjoy rotating my money in and out of the sector ETFs.
When the market aggressively sold off, I started an initial position in XLY with intention to aggressively add to my position once I see some consolidation in the sector and a breakout to the upside with heavy volume. XLY holds stocks such as #AMZN, #TSLA, #LVS, #RCL, #LOW and #MCD just to name a few. I absolutely love the diversification of XLY as it gives the investor exposure to big tech, restaurants, travel, retail, and automotive - industries that are sensitive to interest rates and movements in the economy. I am fairly bullish on XLY as I am bullish on a full US economic recovery within the next year. With a very good move to the upside on March 9th, things are looking bright for XLY with parts of Canada and the United States preparing themselves for reopenings and vaccinations across the nation. The reopenings and hopefully mass vaccinations will yield an increase in store shopping and travel.
As I mentioned, it is hard for me - a student and an employee - to analyze what stocks to trade. Rotating in and out of the SPDR ETFs gives me the ability to do more research on the industry or industries that I want to be exposed to while being able to buy 30 - 200 stocks without having to do research on each stock or paying an enormous amount of commissions and grants me the ability to really only spend time reading reports issued by SPDR ETFs and the industry. Currently my ETF holdings are: XLE, XLF, XLB (Materials), XLI (Industrials) and XLY with the intention to add to my position and possibly starting a position in XLRE (Real Estate).
As an inspiring Investment Advisor, I am not too caught up with the whole Reddit craze due to the riskiness of it. As a result, I prefer to diversify myself via SPDR ETFs while trading 3x ETFs and inverse ETFs which provides me with enough volatility to produce a steady daily return.
Something to Watchno confirmation = no trade
no profit margin = no trade
must get a confirmation on LTF
Either 15M Timeframe or 10M or 5M
we must get a change of trend on those timeframes like price coming into the zone with LL/LH and we need HH/HL To come in!
that's how i enter 99% of my trades
XLY - Consumer discretionary sector - EW analysis XLY - The consumer discretionary index has completed impulse cycle from major low and started the price correction. Sell it with stop level above 155.98 for abc flat correction down for target near 145 or lower.
Give thumbs up if you really like the trade idea.
XLY - Consumer discretionary sector - EW analysis XLY - In 4 hr time frame, it looks like the impulse cycle has been finished unless, the 5th wave will start subdividing to extend the cycle higher. If consider the impulse over, then there will be big correction expected down below 141.75 at least. The commmon cycle between both options, is simple flat like abc correction as shown on the chart.
Give thumbs up if you really like the trade idea.
Is This Bullish or Bearish? Remember that narratives will be constructed every day in financial media based on emotions. The problem with this strategy is that they have already happened! It has already shown up on the chart. So today, we are going to look at one of the most important intermarket relationships. That is Consumer Discretionary vs Consumer Staples, or XLY/XLP. Let’s hop onto the chart.
So what are we seeing here? Well the first thing that should catch your eye is the all time high. We love all time highs! They are bullish. When XLY is outperforming XLP on a relative basis, this is a “risk on” environment. The other thing we see is the overall bullish trend of higher highs and higher lows.
Then we see the bearish divergence. Some people tend to think that a bearish divergence will cause a trend change, but when the overall trend is bullish, we have to remember that these usually just produce pullbacks and then the trend continues. So while this chart is bullish, we can wait and watch while the higher low forms. When the higher low forms, that is confirmation the "risk on" environment is alive and well.
Keep this relationship in you back pocket. It is a great one to help you navigate the narratives of “the consumer is in bad shape”. If XLY is outperforming, the market is telling you otherwise. We would rather listen to the market than someone on CNBC.
Happy Trading!
XLY Butterfly Trade Setup XLY current wave (iv) correction is setting up for a terminal move into wave v targeting the 166-173 range. We’re looking to establish some +ve delta butterfly spreads on XLY expiring Nov. Detailed Trade execution on video update.
