Great initial place to start long Today $XME broke resistance on high volume. Initial position initiated, if this forms a handle then will look for next breakout to add more
XME trade ideas
xme long longer termXME: base metals and mining containing steel, gold,etc...
Its stil a big uptrend so for the broad market this confirms our bull bias.
Use this as an indication to specfic spot prices longer term and specific stocks.
(or trade it directly).
However watch the trendline... a pullback to that trendline is certainly something to keep in mind.
XMEAlthough this may not be for long, if you are looking for some nice profits in a hsort period of time, XME is a nice short in my opinion.. This it closed right on support 3 with heavier bearish volume than bullish volume... It seems as it was going to consolidate and try to retest but seems as if it failed.. The bearish engulfing candle has confirmed a short...It has dropped below the 25 day EMA but be on the look out for the 50 and 100 Day EMA's as those might be turning points. Also as price drops below each blue horizontal add some shares until it gets to the original bullish pivot and watch price action...
Let me know with any comments
Constructive criticism is always welcome!
Enjoy 2017!!!!
XME At ResistanceSince XME. has doubled the sidways range, I see price at resistance from the upper half of the range, fork and near the frequency lines.
Have to keep in mind, that price has a high chance to reach the U-MLH.
Observe...
Update: XME, Down Trend ContinuesTwo days ago I published a negative chart on-XME. Here is recap along with additional commentary:
In early August I was long-XME. I published an 8 year chart showing a down-trending channel.
Because I believe a new down-trend had started, I sold my position back then.
There are many sell signals.
1. Sell Fractal in effect (red rectangle on chart).
2. Alligator jaws opening in tandem with sell Fractals. Now feeding in down-trend. THIS IS YOUR COMPASS .
3. Chop indicator (under chart) (indicates a trend or choppy action) is ABOVE the 38.2 shaded area, indicating a non-trending asset with a downward bias.
4. Phase energy (lower top indicator) is below zero and getting WEAKER.
5. Momentum (middle top indicator) is the 5/34 measure, and this is heading DOWN.
6. Prices are trading under the Ichimoku Cloud . THIS IS A SELL SIGNAL.
7. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This line is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen (black) baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud and this is rolling over to the down-side. This is a sell signal.
In my opinion-XME will grind its way LOWER. I say "grind" because the chop is in the shaded area.
XME-has lost almost 5% since my last published chart. just two days ago.
If CHOP heads lower during the selling (out of the shaded area), the down trend will most likely get stronger.
Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
XME: Multiple Sell Signals In Emerging Down-TrendIn early August I was long-XME. I published an 8 year chart showing a down-trending channel.
It was also a failure at Fibonacci .236 (identical to previous Fibonacci failures).
I sold my position. XME-has been very weak since.
I believe a new down-trend has started. There are many sell signals.
1. Sell Fractals in effect (rectangle on chart).
2. Alligator jaws opening in tandem with sell Fractals. Now feeding in down-trend.
3. Chop indicator (under chart) (indicates a trend or choppy action) is ABOVE the 38.2 shaded area, indicating a non-trending asset.
4. Phase energy (lower top indicator) is below zero.
5. Momentum (middle top indicator) is the 5/34 measure, and this is heading DOWN.
6. Prices are trading in the Ichimoku Cloud .
7. Prices are trading below the thick red Ichimoku Cloud conversion line. This line is heading lower. This is a sell signal.
8. Prices are trading below the Ki jun-Sen (black) baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud and this is rolling over to the down-side. This is a sell signal.
I placed two vertical lines on the chart. I call them golden triggers.
Please note the indicator and Fractal action at these golden triggers (the 1st a buy.....and the 2nd a sell).
In my opinion-XME will grind its way LOWER. I say "grind" because the chop is in the shaded area. There could be a failed technical rebound.
If (and when) this failure happens, if CHOP heads lower during the selling (out of the shaed area), the selling will most likely get stronger.
Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
TRADE IDEA: XME OCT 7TH 24.5 SHORT PUTHaving the highest implied volatility of all the SPDR's currently, I'm looking to sell a small amount of premium here at the 30 delta strike approximately 45 DTE as a possible alternative to doing a covered call in a mining underlying (such as GDX, GDXJ, KGC, AUY, HL, etc.).
Here are the metrics:
Probability of Profit: 74%
P50: 89%
Max Profit: .66 ($66)/contract
Max Loss: $2384 (if the stock went to 0 between now and expiration, and you did nothing)
Buying Power Effect: $245/contract
Break Even: 23.84
Notes: As with all premium selling setups, I look to take off the trade at at least 50% max profit. However, since this is a naked short put, I look to roll the option out for duration when the value of the put exceeds twice the credit received (which means price has moved toward the short put, such that its value has increased). When that occurs, I roll the short put down and out to a strike and an expiry in which I can receive a credit for the roll.
Update: XME Continues Weaker, Multiple Fractal Sell SignalsEight days ago I published an 8 year chart down-trend for-XME.
This is what I wrote:
"I have owned XME-this year. I sold a month ago when it was 7% higher. Why ?
Caveat Emptor ! This is Latin for "Let the buyer beware."
From a technical perspective, XME-is at an 8 year down trend line.
I say "Caveat Emptor", let the buyer beware.".....
End of recap.
XME-has continued weaker, dropping from $27.47 to $26.09 this past week.
I believe the path is lower.
1. The last four Fractals have been sells.
2. The phase energy (lower indicator) is below the zero line.
3. The 5/34 momentum (middle indicator) is trending down.
4. RSI / Stohastic (top indicator) is rolling over.
5. The alligator is feeding in the down-trend.
6. The thick golden line (233 unit EMA) has been breached.
Fractal MEST (momentum, energy, space, time) are all down .
If you are long I would use any strength to exit. Good luck to you in all your trades. Don.
XME: Long Down Trend Still In Effect: Caveat Emptor !I have owned XME-this year. I sold a month ago when it was 7% higher. Why ?
Caveat Emptor ! This is Latin for "Let the buyer beware."
You see, XME-has gold-and-silver miners, and I am bullish for this group.
But alas, poor Yorek, XME-also has basic metals such as steel-copper-aluminum-zinc.
The basic metals are not doing well. So how can XME-stay strong?
From a technical perspective, XME-is at an 8 year down trend line.
I say "Caveat Emptor", let the buyer beware.
This weekend I have taken the time to publish eight basic metals components of-XME. All are weak.
So, for those of you who like-XME, please take note that the basic metals side of this-ETF may drag-XME down.
One last point. If the basic metals are not doing well, then the real growth in the US economy will likely remain weak.
I would argue that this is why the chart I published for the 10 Year T-Note yield is sinking, and has been for years.
(I hope the Federal Reserve can see this).
I have published ten charts in all to make my point for-XME. Eight basic metals stocks were weak.
The gold-miner I published was Hecla-Mining, which was very strong.
In my opinion, the forward progress in XME-is really going to be difficult. Why? I feel that basic metals prices are heading down.
Final thoughts: "Why do you have to 'put your two cents in'... But it's only a 'penny for your thoughts'? Where's that extra penny going to?"
As always, good luck to you. Don.
XME At .236 (Eight Year Cart) Retracement Level15 days ago I published an 8 year chart for-XME. Here is some of what I wrote:
I am a person who believes in harmonic patterns .
XME-and the metals that comprise this-ETF are repeating an 8 year pattern.
In the mid 2008 sell-off-XME crawled back to retracement level .50, but this took two years.
XME-is currently at Retracement Level (4) - this is Fibonacci .236 AGAIN.
I have been very BULLISH on-XME, but to get to Fibonacci .382 (about $36.79), XME-must not fail at Fibonacci .236.
If you are long and have profits, keep your stops close. XME-has come long and strong. A pause is due.
Furthermore, I have drawn an EIGHT YEAR DOWN TREND LINE from 2008 to the present. (This is on the chart from 15 days ago).
This is a very powerful negative. If-XME is to continue its current bullish trend , it has to penetrate $30 and hold.
After a pause, look for higher highs and lower lows. If you don't see this then protect yourself and do not get caught in the resumption of the year 2008
down-trend. (End of previous comments).
Since 15 days ago XME-has mostly been weaker. I suggest you go back 15 days and look at this chart. It contains the "bigger picture".
I am waiting to see if XME-can resume its uptrend and "take out" $30.
You want odds? I say it is like tossing a coin, only 50-50.
Good luck to you. Don.
XME At Key 8 Year Chart Level: Fibonacci .236- A Harmonic PivotI am a person who believes in harmonic patterns.
XME-and the metals that comprise this-ETF are repeating an 8 year pattern.
In the mid 2008 sell-off-XME crawled back to retracement level .50, but this took two years.
Look on the above chart at Retracement Level (1).
Then look at Retracement Fibonacci (2), which is a FAILURE at Fib .236.
Now look at Retracement Level (3), a two year battle at a retracement of .50 which ended in FAILURE, with a price decline to $12.
Now look at Retracement Level (4) - this is Fibonacci .236 AGAIN .
I have been very BULLISH on-XME, but to get to Fibonacci .382 (about $36.79), XME-must not fail at Fibonacci .236.
If you are long and have profits, keep your stops close. XME-has come long and strong. A pause is due.
Furthermore, I have drawn an EIGHT YEAR DOWN TREND LINE from 2008 to the present.
This is a very powerful negative. If-XME is to continue its current bullish trend, it has to penetrate $30 and hold.
After a pause, look for higher highs and lower lows. If you don't see this then protect yourself and do not get caught in the resumption of the year 2008 down-trend. My upside forecast for-XME (14 days ago) was Fibonacci .382 ($36.79). To do this, XME-must not fail at the current level of Fibonacci .236 .
If XME-fails, then the gold-complex will most likely be weaker also. Why? There are a lot of gold-stocks in-XME. I published a dozen of these charts 14 days ago.
As always, good luck to you. Don.
XME Upside Breakout: Chart 13 Of 13I believe that-XME is in the beginning phase of a huge upside move.
The previous 12 charts were of-XME components, all of which are breaking out to the upside.
Yes, there is still risk, but because half of the components in-XME are strong, the risk is reduced.
Here is what I see in-XME.
Let's review Don's TRADE-MAP approach:
TRADE = 1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
.....MAP = 6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance.
When I mention "Don's Top Ten Technicals", I use the elements of the "TRADE-MAP" approach:
1. The Ichimoku Cloud is rising as well as the 89 day moving average . 2. Prices have risen above the cloud. 3. Prices are trading above the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line.
4. The thick red conversion line is also rising. 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud , which is rising and above the cloud. 6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this is strong. 7. The top middle indicator is vortex and it is strong (green over red). 8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy" of the stock , and this is STRONG. 9. The green fractal arrows are up (not shown). 10. Look to the far right on the chart, around $26. You will note a yellowish line on top (lips), with black dots below (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) below the black dots. Now, all three are rising, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "separated jaws of a feeding alligator". This is a positive indication because the alligator is FEEDING in the uptrend.
The above summary can also be said for the previous 12 charts. In my opinion-XME should go higher. My forecast is $35 to $37 in approximately 90 days.
I hope I didn't bore you with the 13 (baker's dozen) charts for-XME. Maybe now you will understand where the strength in-XME is coming from.
I would like to close with three quotes from Red Skelton:
1. “All men make mistakes, but married men find out about them sooner.”
2. “Any kid will run any errand for you, if you ask at bedtime.”
3. “Have a little laugh at life and look around you for happiness instead of sadness. Laughter has always brought me out of unhappy situations.”
I hope this has been entertaining and informative. I hope all of your trades go well. Don.
Trending Now Update: Upside Breakout In XME ContinuesI have observed the following in the chart of-XME (I wrote this 10 days ago):
A Bottom Triangle/Wedge formed (see chart published 10 days ago when XME-was $24.00). This consisted of a group of patterns which have the same general shape as Ascending Triangles. This formation in-XME was forecast to be an (upside) reversal and not simply a continuation pattern. The breakout pattern has two converging trend-lines. The pattern displays two highs touching the upper trend-line and two lows touching the lower trend-line.
There is also a way to calculate the upside potential in terms of time and price. This formation took about 100 days to form. My upside projection is to $35.00-$37.00 in the next 100 days. Where are we today?
Let's review Don's TRADE-MAP approach:
TRADE = 1. T : Time and space (Fractals); 2. R : Repeating Cycles; 3. A : Advancing Trend; 4. D : Declining Trend; 5. E : Energy in Phase Forces.
.....MAP = 6. M : Momentum and Velocity; 7. A : Analysis of Structure; 8. P : Price Performance.
When I mention "Don's Top Ten Technicals", I use the elements of the "TRADE-MAP" approach:
1. The Ichimoku Cloud is rising as well as the 89 day moving average . 2. Prices have risen above the cloud. 3. Prices are trading above the thick red Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line.
4. The thick red conversion line is also rising. 5. The thick black line is the Ki jun-Sen baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud , which is rising and above the cloud. 6. The indicator on the top of the page is RSI / Stochastic , and this is strong. 7. The top middle indicator is vortex and it is EXCEPTIONALLY strong (green over red). 8. The Top (bar-type) indicator measures the "phase energy" of the stock , and this is STRONG. 9. The green fractal arrows are up (not shown). 10. Look to the far right on the chart, between $26 and $28. You will note a yellowish line on top (lips), with black dots below (teeth), and a blue line (jaw) below the black dots. Now, all three are rising, correct? This is where I ask you to use your imagination and envision these three items as the "separated jaws of a feeding alligator". This is a positive indication because the alligator is FEEDING in the uptrend. IN ADDITION - THIS IS $4.00 ABOVE THE POINT OF THE TRIANGLE (AND WEDGE) UPSIDE BREAKOUT. This is a very strong up move.
I would like to close with a quote from Richard Jeni:
"Success is made up of courage, brains, and luck. Since the first two are a function of the third, it's pretty much all luck."
I hope this has been entertaining and informative. I hope all of your trades go well. Don.
XME: Bullish Upside Breakout: UpdateSix days ago I published a chart and asked this question:
Are metals prices ready to surge even more? XME-suggests yes.
The SPDR S&P-Metals and Mining ETF-offers broad exposure to industrial-and precious metals and mining, with a strong emphasis at the lower end of the capitalization spectrum. It holds 25 components in an equal weighted market cap. (end of recap).
The XME-has indeed experienced an upside breakout. I believe the upside target still remains $35.00-$37.00 in the next 100 days.
For the complete technical report, go to the chart for-XME that I submitted six days ago.
I would like to close with this quote from John F. Kennedy:
"Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future."
Happy trades to you. Don.
