TRADE IDEA: XME JUNE 24TH 19/23.5 SHORT STRANGLEFollowing the premium. With a nearly 70% implied volatility rank and an implied volatility slightly north of 50%, I'm going nondirectional here (what's new) with this short strangle.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 65%
P50: 78%
Max Profit: $107/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/~$250/contract
Theta: 2.55/contract
Delta: -7.55/contract
Notes: I'll shoot for taking this off at 50% max profit ... . Premium selling opportunities in underlyings with >70 implied volatility rank and >50 implied volatility are still thin in this market. My choices were XME, GDX, and GDXJ. I already have a couple of short strangles I layered on in GDX, so XME it is.
XME trade ideas
SPDR ADX ShortThere is a nice short ADX crossing here. The most recent low of the uptrend at $21.91 was broken. So this makes the crossing very compelling for me.
Target for this trade is about $19.50 and the stop at $22.51 which gives a nice risk reward ratio of 2.5.
Let's see how the market plays this.
PAIR TRADE (ETF) XME VS EWG
PAIR TRADE : XME (METAL & MINING) VS EWG ( GERMANY)
CORRELATION : 87 % , based on the past 100 days
Co -integration: 0.90
LONG XME GREEN) @ 42.13
SHORT EWG (RED) @ 23.26
Avg trade length : 20 days
75 % winning rate for this pair over the past 3 years
P.S : Thanks for the new feature Tradingview, very cool. Keep up the awesome work :) .
Algo