Time to get long on oilI see a bounce and run coming. Oil even moves up and this rocket takes off. Oil trades down well that would suck
XOP trade ideas
OPENING: XOP SEPT 21ST 40/44 SHORT STRANGLE ... ... for a 1.31/contract credit.
Probability of Profit: 62%
Max Profit: 1.31 ($131)/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/6.68 ($668)
Break Evens: 38.69/45.31
Delta: 3.65
Theta: 2.75
Notes: Giving myself more room to be wrong with a short strangle in the September cycle. Implied volatility remains so-so here at 24.7% (near the bottom of its 52-week range), so it might be more worthwhile to wait for higher implied. That being said, I'm basically working XOP as an "all weather core position."
Nothing I see makes me feel an iota of bullishness for oilMy new cycle analysis also is very bearish on XOP
OPENING: XOP SEPT 21ST 42 SHORT STRADDLE... for a 3.05/contract credit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $305/contract
Max Loss: Undefined: $848/contract on margin
Break Evens: 38.95/45.05
Delta: -6.55
Theta: 3.31
Notes: Admittedly, the implied volatility rank and implied volatility metrics here aren't great (11 and 25, respectively) but the credit collected as a function of the buying power effect is decent (36%). As with the previous XOP short straddle cycle (see Post Below), I'll look to take profit quickly ... .
OPENING: XOP SEPT 21ST 42/43 SHORT STRANGLE... for a 3.45/contract credit.
Metrics:
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/8.08 (on margin)
Max Profit: 3.45/contract
Break Evens: 38.55/46.45
Theta: 3.09
Delta: -3.53
Notes: Moving out to the September monthly with a narrow strangle ... . 30-day implied isn't as high as I'd like it to be (currently at 28.8%), but it's the second highest, liquid exchange-traded fund that comes up in my screener behind EWZ.
OPENING: XOP Aug $42 big lizardSold the XOP 100 17 AUG 42/45 'big lizard' for a credit of 2.90.
The strategy is essentially short the 42 straddle with a long 45 strike call to limit the upside risk.
The 'proft zone' 39.11-44.90 with almost no risk to the upside.
I plan to manage a winner early to collect around $70-75 ( 25% of the initial credit ).
Currently there's 46 days to expiry but I'd like to see this closed for profit before July is out.
For the downside risk, if the XOP pullback is dramatic enough, I'd take assignment at 42 with a reduced cost basis around 39.
I can then sell calls against the stock after to further reduce cost basis.
OPENING: XOP AUG 17TH 42 SHORT STRADDLE... for a 2.90/contract credit.
Metrics:
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/8.48/contract
Max Profit: 2.90/contract
Break Evens: 39.10/44.90
Theta: 4.52
Delta: -10
Notes: Just looking to add some more theta to the pile in August in non-single name, as the September monthly remains too far out in time for my tastes. Because of its duration, will start to look to take profit at 10% max.
XOP - Oil & GasIncrease in IV here, due to the oil sell off. Sold -1 Aug17 41/46 strangle for $1.38 cr.
2x cr received stop loss here or 50% Win are my targets.
Bear Flag and Diverging RSIWe could be seeing the end of this bull run. Keep a close eye and closer stops on this.
TRADE IDEA: XOP SEPT 21ST/JUNE 21ST 41/45 COVERED SHORT COMBOAnother covered short "combo" setup (see Post Below) with the delta metrics of a covered put sans the buying power effect of short stock and plenty of time to work out and/or reduce cost basis ... .
Metrics:
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/~$1234
Max Profit: $514/contract (realized on finish below the short put)
Break Evens: 46.14/no downside risk
Delta: -75.86
Theta: 1.4
Notes: XOP at long-term horizontal resistance with oil at 74.21/bbl./long-term highs. Work as you would a covered put, rolling out the short put on significant decrease in value, to maintain delta, and/or to defend the combo. Would look to take profit and/or manage at 20% of the buying power effect ($247 profit), although taking profit at 10% of the debit paid wouldn't be bad either ... .
Trump asked Saudi to increase their production, but...I really do think we see one more high in XOP, to 46 or so which is a very notable resistance. We should see good downside from there
So for now, planning to wait till we tag that level.
XOP Bear Call SpreadWait for price to get in or near the zone. Sell the Aug 17 50-55 bear call spread. Minimum premium for spread – 0.50.
XOP Triangle breakoutXOP triangle breakout on the cards, targetting 46-47 region, consistent with weekly resistance areas outlined in idea: XOP Bear coming soon
XOP Long-72 Week Symmetrical triangle
-2 Week congestion at potential breakout zone which would clear previous peak at the beginning of the year
-200 Weekly SMA just above @ 40.80
-Bollinger bands squeezing on the daily
30 basis points of risk planned, am a buyer above $40
Idea not my own. Real Vision TV trade idea highlight fitted to my interpretation. 70% off yearly subscription, amazing resource.
XOP bear coming soonLooking for first teal line to spell stong resistance for xop. Looking for solid downside -- to red line
XOP MAY 18TH 30/32/39/41 IRON CONDOR (LATE POST)I apparently neglected to post this when I put it on back on March 27th in the kid's small account, and am doing so here primarily to keep track of cost basis.
Here's the blow by blow:
On March 27th, I opened this trade for a .50/contract credit.
On April 7th, I closed out the short put side for a .05/contract, with a resulting cost basis of .45/contract. Because I needed some short delta, as well as thinking that oil would come off its highs post-OPEC jawboning, etc., I haven't yet moved to cover the short put side or to roll out the short call side for duration (to the June monthly) and then sell a short put vertical against.
I will look at doing that next week ... .
XOP (US): Consoldiation breakout?The large triangle pattern is about to break to the upside. It's not one of our favourite patterns and we prefer to avoid long-exposure in stocks (regardless of sector) at the moment, but for those seeking long opportunities, the energy (-related) sectors are probably best. Also, selectively (!) base metals and pm-miners offer some opportunities, but you really have to go look at an individual level.
Personally we're not playing the XOP opportunity this time.
THE WEEK AHEAD: XOP, EWZ, GDXJIt's somewhat a lather, rinse, repeat of last week, given the fact that we're kind of in-between earnings seasons, with the next to kick off here in a couple of weeks.
XOP:* With the underlying somewhat in the middle of its range, I'm more inclined to go directionally neutral here, either via short strangle or iron fly.
The 27 delta-ish May 18th 33/38 short strangle is paying 1.26/contract with break evens at 31.74/39.26; for the less aggressively inclined, the 32/39 is paying .84. For both of these, look to take profit at 50% max.
The May 18th 30/35/35/41 dynamic iron fly** is paying 2.75 with break evens at 32.25/37.75. Look to take profit at 25% max.
EWZ: "The Brazilian" is perennially frisky ... .
The May 18th 41/49 is paying 1.13 at the mid with break evens at 39.87/50.13, with the 30/35/35/41 dynamic iron fly paying 3.34.
GDXJ:*** My general tendency with GLD, GDX, and GDXJ are bullish assumption setups on weakness. Unfortunately, GLD is at a bit of a high here, and there is divergence between GDX/GDXJ in terms of strength versus the commodity, implying that weakness in gold may drag GDX/GDXJ down, when they're already toward the weak side of their ranges to begin with. Consequently, it may pay to be patient and wait until GDXJ drops to the bottom of its range between 30 and 31 before pulling the trigger on something bullish. Caveats aside, here are three bullish assumption setups:
The "spack"**** trade: May 18th 30 short put for .45 with a break even of 29.55. Ride the short put to expiry. If assigned, proceed to sell calls against at or above your cost basis (29.55).
The Synthetic Covered Call: May 18th 34 short put (70 delta) for 2.40 with a break even at 31.60. Look to take profit at 50% max (i.e., 1.20/contract). Otherwise, roll out for duration "as is" for additional credit or proceed to cover at or above cost basis (31.60) if assigned.
The Poor Man's: May 18th 34 short/Aug 17th 26 long, 6.01 debit for an 8 wide (75% debit/width ratio) with a break even of 32.01 versus 32.15 spot. Look to take profit at 20% of what you paid to put the setup on for (i.e., 1.20/contract).
* -- I'm in an XOP May 32/39 I put on last week for around a 1.00/contract.
** -- An iron condor won't pay one-third of the width of the wings here.
*** -- I'm already in a long-dated GDX net credit diagonal, so won't be partaking of GDXJ here.
**** -- Short Put Acquire Cover.
