XOP trade ideas
XOP poised for a nice popXOP saw solid bullish call flow last week. Also, DXY looks ready to roll lower this week. Finally, knowing there were nice draws on crude and distillates across the board last week is a trifecta. Once, markets bottom finally, energy looks like best place to be.
XOP is set for a big moveThe combination of a DXY break down plus the news that last week had crude and distillate draws across the board is setting up a nice up side potential for XLE stocks.
OPENING: XOP JUNE 15TH 32 LONG/APRIL 20TH 35 SHORT CALL DIAGONAL... for a 2.49/contract debit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $51/contract* (20.5% ROC)
Max Loss: $249/contract**
Notes: As with any diagonal, there aren't many metrics to look at. If you just leave the setup alone, however, your max loss is $249/contract, and your max profit is $51/contract. Max profit is realized with a finish above the 35 strike at expiry; max loss, with a finish below 32 and no rolls of the short call to reduce cost basis.
Another way to look at the setup is that you're paying only 2.49 for a 3.00 spread ... .
* -- Assuming no short call rolls and a finish above the 35 strike.
** -- Assuming no short call rolls and a finish below the 32 strike.
OPENING: XOP JUNE 15TH 31 LONG/MARCH 29TH 34 SHORT PUT DIAGONAL... for a .15/contract credit.
As with any diagonal, there aren't many metrics to provide, since max profit is dependent on the number of rolls undertaken, the credit received for each, as well as whether the long maintains value. However, the max loss is the width of the spread (3) minus the credit received for the setup (.15) or 2.85. This is the max I can lose if I do nothing, and the setup goes to max loss. Similarly, my max profit is a whopping .11 ($11)/contract if price rips totally away from the setup, the long and short go to worthless, and I don't roll the short to take in more credit.
The particular thing I like about these setups is flexibility and the number of ways in which they can be worked intratrade:
(1) Allow the short put to go to at or near worthless (.05 or less), and then sell the long for a credit if it has held value in excess of the credit you received to put the trade on. The difference between the credit received for selling the long minus the credit you received to put the trade on is your profit (minus fees and any debit you paid to close the shortie).
(2) Work both ends of the candle. Roll the long down on significant increase in value to lock in gains and roll the short put down when you're able to do so for a credit. Alternatively, roll the short put out for duration and credit on significant decrease in value, leaving the long in place. Cover the setup for a debit that is less than total credits received. The difference between total credits received and the debit you paid to exit is your profit.
Keep in mind that if you burn both sides of the candle, you'll be widening the spread and therefore increasing buying power effect and max loss.
(3) Work the short put only. Roll the short out "as is" on significant decrease in value (I ordinarily do this at 50% max) and exit the trade when rolling is no longer productive (usually when price has ripped away from the setup). If price breaks the shortie, allow as much extrinsic to bleed out of the contract as you can, and then roll for a credit while examining whether you can strike improve on roll.
This is the generally accepted approach to these setups. The width of the spread (and therefore the buying power effect) remains constant throughout the process or decreases if you're able to roll the shortie down for strike improvement and a credit (decreasing the width of the spread and therefore max loss).
And we'll see how it goes ... .
XOP . Nic breakout today Nice breakout today on Libyan news. Overbought. But looking for continuation.
Wedge with an bullish trend.You can see a wedge with an bullish trend , the lines of resistance and support are bearish , when it breaks the line of resistance, it is necessary to go long until the vertex of the wedge approximately.
OPENING: XOP DEC 15TH 32/34/40/42 IRON CONDOR... for a .49 ($49)/contract credit.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 63%
Max Profit: $49/contract
Max Loss: $151/contract
Breakevens: 33.51/40.49
Delta: 1.64
Theta: .99
Notes: Going small, defined, neutral assumption here, since the implied volatility isn't as high as I would like. Shooting for 50% max ... . The full on naked 34/40 in the same expiry currently goes for .82.
XOP Revised Channel TradeHave adjusted the bottom entry point to further out, adjusted channel parameters somewhat. Looking for confirmation before entering a short position until the channel bottom.
XOP Likely Down for 10-15 DaysHeiken-Ashi 4 hr has been relatively good at predicting channel swings. XOP will likely start a downtrend for the next few weeks. Keep an eye on it, if it starts trailing sideways the downtrend is likely.
XOP: General Idea of Where this Channel is GoingSomething that you can predict is nice. XOP prices surging, should roll along in a channel pattern. Heiken-Ashi has been pretty good at predicting trend swings here.
XOP - Headed towards the top of a massive wedge. PT $38.50XOP appears to be looking to re-test the top of a massive wedge. Looking for contact around $38.50. Crude prices are providing a massive tailwind, I think we see $60 crude by December and $XOP will follow to the upside.
Long XOP? Trend break, double bottom, news and indics agree.www.tradingview.com
Recent buzz has been growing that XOP could rally so I have been watching it. Almost pulled the trigger at 2:55 - end of option session local time but did not have my head wrapped around it. I do not mind trading quickly but it is easy to make clostly mistakes (how do I know that?) so I try to have it completely clear when commit.
I have published some of the indicators, they all need updating now. Holler in comments with any questions. Thanks and Keep Smiling!
- News: Dollar creeping down, world oil inventories/production and general buzz draws attention so if a crowd will gather I want to be in and out closed before the excitement dies down. Plan with me is -take $ off of the table and limit risk exposure.
- Down trend is broken and just passed a double bottom plus price picked its way through some historical resistance.
- Williams per cent R 21 period with 13 average has signal above average, above mid range and into so-called overbought. The top line color green tells me the
four period Random Walk part of this indicator is greater than 1 positive.
- The Hull MACD is inconclusive in the macd part while trend break is tested but the back colors tell me the Force Index is above zero (bullish) though it just turned light green meaning it went from up slope to down slope - again testing trend and resistance - we will see how this price passes the direction quiz tomorrow :-) .
- Finally got a four time frame Exponential Moving Average pairs ribbon working the way I want. Inputs here default 9 and 15 period exp. moving averages in each of four time frames (here at default 5, 15, 60 and D). Showing here 5 and 15 pull backs - 60 and day advancing. Be interesting to see if price tags along now! This indicator displays a column of 4 circles; top is shortest time frame; color is green if fast moving average is above the slow else red.
10% ROC on this Options trade IdeaXOP seem to be running into consistent resistance at the 38$ level... Last attempt up stalled around the $36 area. This trade idea is for June monthlies Option Trade.
Sell the 38$ Call, and if you want buy the 41$ call to make it a $300 risk play.
The premium you will get should be around $30 per contract... a decent 10% ROI.. for less than two months.
XOP weekly - on breakout watch - 7/26/2017We need the price to go above the red resistance and then it can target $38. Once $38 level is cleared if ever, we can think about $43 to $46 level.
Short PutsXOP is also offering up a decent ROC for September expiration. $31 strike is 2.1% ROC over 51 days.
Sept 15 $31 put for $.66.
Over 70% trade on XOP (Big Lizard)Closed a trade last week and had no position in XOP. Today we had a -2% move down and around 9% in the last month IV rank is not great, but right now not many ETF's have over 20 Implided volatility rank.
So I decided to sell a straddle with no upside risk (Big Lizard).
The trade:
Sold the 33 Call
Sold the 33 Put
Bought the 35 Call
Total credit $2.16
