Opening (IRA): XRT April 17th 70/Sept 19th 50 LCD*... for a 17.57 debit.
Comments: And back into XRT, which is at/near 52 week lows with a long call diagaonl/Poor Man's Covered Call, buying the back month 90 and selling the front month that pays for all the extrinsic in the long.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 17.57
Break Even: 67.57
Max Profit: 2.43
ROC at Max: 13.83%
50% Max: 1.22
ROC at 50% Max: 6.92%
Will generally look to take profit on the setup as a unit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call when it is at 50% max.
XRT trade ideas
Opening (IRA): XRT April 17th -71C/Sept 19th 50C LCD*... for a 17.91 debit.
Comments: At or near 52 week lows. Buying the back month 90 delta and selling the front month such that it pays for all the extrinsic in the long, with a resulting break even that is at or below where the underlying is currently trading. The Sept 19th 50C is shown at the 65 strike so that it appears on the chart.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 17.91
Break Even: 67.91
Max Profit: 2.09
ROC at Max: 11.67%
50% Max: 1.05
ROC at 50% Max: 5.83%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll short call out and/or down and out at 50% max.
* -- Long call diagonal a/k/a a Poor Man's Covered Call.
XRT eyes on $80.61: Top of year long range about to break out? Retail sector has been consolidating most of the year.
Perhaps the election was needed to reduce variables.
Looking for a Break-and-Retest entry or rejection here.
$ 80.61 is the fib of interest right now.
$ 78.63 is a minor support below for SL.
$ 83.81 will be first resistance / target.
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Intuition stock Long setup on XRTI ask for stocks sometimes from my intuition, and this immediately came to mind. That's usually a good sign and means it's true guidance. I also had the number 112 or 13 and the impression of up.
I do dowsing and the reading suggested a bit of a move down and then up to around 90-91. I think it's possible the number of 13 was about points higher from Friday's close (I got this on Sunday), which comes around $90. Dowsing also supports this idea.
I also got a date for a possible low of the 23rd, but I don't have a ton of faith in it. It's just something to be aware of as dates are sometimes reversals.
XRT: Bullish Inverted Head and Shoulders Could Target an 0.886XRT on the hourly has started to form what could be a Bullish head and Shoulders, if it plays out it could result in the XRT making a 0.886 Fibonacci Retrace likely starting before the end of the week. Additionally, the RSI has a Bullish Shark formation which could serve as further confirmation of the low.
XRT: Ringing the Register on Retail StocksSmall caps have surged to fresh highs dating back to the first quarter of 2022. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has suddenly become a darling among sellside strategists and even buyside macro portfolio managers. Recall it was just two months ago when the group traded around 12 times next year’s earnings estimates. Jump ahead to today, and a 25% rally since October 27 leaves ‘the smalls’ closer to 15 times forward EPS forecasts. Is that a bargain? Maybe not quite as much.
Let’s focus on one key piece of the small-cap story. Retailers. Pull up a chart of the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), and you will see that the pattern since late 2020 appears remarkably similar to IWM's technical profile. The equal-weight basket of consumer equities peaked above $104 in Q4 2021 before plunging to support about 50% lower. Indeed, the mid- FWB:50S has proven to be support several times in the past 15 months. While XRT holds many large-cap names, its equal-weight construction methodology means it will act like a small or mid-cap ETF.
On the chart, I see clear resistance near the $75 mark. A breakout above that would portend a potential measured move price objective to the low to mid-$90s – just under its all-time high. For now, I am cautious on the fund since it has yet to break through the $75 line in the sand. I noticed, though, that in the fund's 18-year history, January has actually been a positive month, averaging a 2.2% total return with more tempered gains in February. March and April are the two best back-to-back months on the calendar.
Price comes first, however. So, I would like to see XRT jump above the $75 level. For now, ringing the register on retail stocks appears as the prudent play heading into 2024.
XRT short - below .618 Fib levelRejecting down trendline, below 50 DMA and the option flow ratio for March 17th is 4:1 puts.
Very strong numbers from economy today, which means the FED will have to raise rates again at some point this year.
I have been following the FOMC for 6 years, take every meeting cautiously. We also have CPI numbers on the 14th.
I am holding MArch 24th 61 puts at $1.15
GL!
#XRT - Retailers ETF consolidating for a breakout?Keep an eye on Retailers in the US. Fundamentally it doesn't feel right but technically its telling a different story. Nice consolidation off the 200 weekly ma since may Last year. Level is clear here. A convincing weekly break above $66.50 should see this move higher to at least a target of $77.50
XRT Bearish inclined naked calls 16 Sep expiryWhats The Plan/Trade/Thought
I’ve been looking at the retail sector especially since the consumer willingness to spend has been shifting to services/ experiences and entertainment.
Household cleaning, groceries, pets, alcohol, recreational vehicles all have seen drops in spend from Q1 2022 to Q2 2022
Walmart has also started laying off people and have also seen a shift in consumer purchase behaviours due to inflation and pandemic lifestyle changes. I believe retails companies have already started becoming defensive
Risk Mitigation
There is a key S&R line at 73.02 and the final one at 75.72. Once we see break throughs on these we will need to close
Imagine Yourself Taking The Other Side
With the market becoming bullish since Mid May - June (NASDAQ & S&P). I think taking a bullish position is also possible in the short term. However besides market movement and a dropping oil price, I don’t see how the original bear situation has changed.
Look For New Information
What am I rejecting the current bull run, which is does make me uncomfortable
Next week we have earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, Bath & Body works. If I had remembered this I would not have entered
How Do I Feel Now
Uncomfortable
Trade Specs
Sold 110 Calls @ 0.42
Strike 80
% to Strike 11.94%
BP Used: 83K
Max Gain: 4620