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SPDR S&P Retail ETF

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XRT trade ideas

black friday, red herringAlready seeing headlines boasting BIGGEST BLACK FRIDAY EVAR!!! Looking like a setup for a good short, especially as a hedge if you're long the overbought scam that is the SPX right now. Thxgiving week (light blue intervals) has marked a local top or a continuation of a downtrend in 4 out of the past 6 years. The purple indicator is correlation w/ put volume on the SPX. Would like to see a spike here as well as a third touch of that top TL to complete the diagonal wave. Green line is relative performance to SPX which is high and tight right now. Wave count wise I've labeled it as the end of wave (iv) flat but it could be a leading diagonal as well in various other counts... not too worried about that, what's important is that this looks clearly like a diagonal (either leading or ending) that will likely retrace back to 41 by March. I've drawn a harmonic which looks like a developing 5-0 pattern (.500 retrace has already rejected it once) which would mean a deeper retrace below 38 to make lower lows. A daily close above that schiff channel would invalidate any immediate reversal.
AMEX:XRTShort
by chinawildman
Holiday seasonality play on RETAIL- XRT LONG IDEAXRT is the retail ETF and every year we get a burst around the holiday season if you're patient. Over the past three years, starting the beginning of November into December and even through some of January XRT and the Retail sector popped higher off the increased sales through the holiday season. Even last year while we experienced a correction to bear market in the market, the XRT long play had a chance for profitability by $5-6. This time around we expect a move higher from $43 up to $47 even $50 to capture the retail seasonality. The year to date POC is holding good support unless we see a strong market reversal in the last month of the year, the trade has potential.
AMEX:XRTLong
by TRADEPROAcademy
XRT UpdateRetail numbers sucked, so of course XRT went up. The market is doing exactly the opposite of what it's supposed to do, lol. A straddle on the China deal would have netted very little, so I was right not to play it. Fact of the matter is that they still haven't resolved anything, and Dec tariffs haven't been cancelled yet. But in any case, I wanted to show the plot again just to show the disconnect between the market and reality. Also, indicators are getting close to overbought, short when it does.
AMEX:XRT
by hungry_hippo
1
XRT Straddle Play UpdateThe market appears to be forming a pennant, which actually makes sense since nobody really knows how the trade talks will go. No pumptarded optimism this time around, apparently the market finally learned its lesson after the last dozen talks failed. I'm kinda doubting any news comes out until Monday, they'll probably extend talks as usual then get nothing done. I think XRT $41 straddle might be the play Friday before close if a deal isn't announced by then. Still no position, probably not buying the straddle today.
AMEX:XRT
by hungry_hippo
XRT Retai ETF Straddle for China trade talksYou can't predict Trump, not even Trump can predict Trump. So who knows if we get a China deal or not... With the market stalled out for the day, I'm looking forward to next week. I expect XRT to close the gap next week and stay in the $42 waffle range. Trade talks Thu/Fri and you know Trump will Tweet something because he can't help himself. So a straddle in tariff sensitive sector like transport or retail makes the most sense, buying XRT Oct 18 straddle Wed before close. XRT options have good liquidity and low premiums.
AMEX:XRT
by hungry_hippo
4
XRT Retail WedgieLooks like XRT (retail ETF) is forming a wedgie with divergence. Doesn't look complete yet though, no position. Retail numbers were good last Friday but the profits aren't there and earnings sucked across the board (except LULU, lol) so there's really no compelling reason for a retail rally. AMZN and WMT are gonna bankrupt everyone else. If I was gonna invest in retail, I'd go with dollar stores. Not my thing but I drove my mom to one over the weekend, sat in the car and watched the customers walk in. All Latinos and other minorities (and the overall percentage is low in my area). That's where they're making their money, cheap immigrants who don't care about name brands. And seniors like my mom, lol. Over a mil in assets and she sill goes to dollar stores.
AMEX:XRTShort
by hungry_hippo