XRT PutsXRT puts have good liquidity, cheaper way to bet on COSTCO earnings than COST options. Going with puts this morning. Already down quite a bit while I'm typing this since most retailers are tanking anyways.
XRT trade ideas
Retail Sector (XRT)Whats up Traders,
All of the explanation is on the chart.. .
Retail Economic Data coming into play on this one majorly.
We are looking for a breakthrough of the descending wedge pattern
Looking for continued retail sales growth next month also.
XRT retailers leading downRetailers have been champions of underperformance, slicing through support.
As a conclusion, all sectors that are economically sensitive, energy, semis, retailers, homebuilders, are in deep trouble recession is maybe being signaled?
XRT short timeI think XRT has entered a position where if the yellow lines hold, we will get to the blue box. Insane good R/R
XRT - US equities rolling over? Are we seeing a marked rollover in US equities finally catching up with everyone else or is BTD going to save the day again? This count would suggest that we have seen a 5 wave move to the upside and we should expect some sustained downside action moving forward. Of course, there may well be some decent rallies in the meantime.
$XRT- Retail Saw Selling Pressure into first week Nov Last YearWell, if last year is our blue print retail likely weak into November. My charting suggests we crossed bearish on the intermediate time frame last week. It is barely holding the short term up trend. This looks like a topping formation to me with the 45.50 2018 open back in the cards. There is little doubt retail is holding up better than Transports. Retail is likely buy-able early November but for now hands off.
Retail is Not Having a Good WeekProblem with retail is inflation pressures. I see the labor shortage a real problem. AMZN raising their minimum wage by that much suggests to me a serious issue for Christmas. I don't see huge cost increases due to tariffs this season but next year a real issue.
XRT Reversal FormingOversold Near-term after minimum wage commentary from AMZN...Should bounce as investors realize holiday shopping will be huge this year
Retail Rally Comes to A Screeching HaltToys R Us refuses to die. The hedge funds that own the debt of the bankrupt toy retailer decided to cancel an auction of assets and instead plan to revive the brand and even open new retail outlets. The prospects of another Toys R Us revival could become symbolic: the timing coincided with what looks like a top in retail stocks as represented by the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT).
XRT fell 3.3% on high trading volume to close at a 2-month low. The move confirmed the previous day’s 50DMA breakdown. The resulting reversal of XRT’s last breakout gives the index a very toppy technical pattern. While XRT is back to the consolidation pattern that preceded the breakout, a test of 200DMA support seems highly likely given the intensity of selling. XRT last closed below its 200DMA last November. A 200DMA breakdown would confirm XRT’s top.
If I were still playing my 2018 retail recovery thesis, I would have just sold everything here to lock in profits. I would next resolve to wait until holiday season headlines picked up steam for deciding next sector-wide moves. For now, I went scrambling for headlines trying to assess whether fundamental events agreed with the bearish technicals. Two other events stand out.
First, Amazon (AMZN) raised its minimum wage to $15/hour and lobbied Congress to raise the national minimum wage from a paltry $7.25/hour. Wall Street hates sharing profits and wage hikes shift a small amount of the loot from shareholders to workers. Moreover, wage increases translate into cost pressures and margin compression – anathema for stock prices.
Second, Stitch Fix (SFIX), an online retailer which sells customized clothing, was absolutely clobbered after its earnings report completely failed to satisfy investors hopped up on high expectations. The stock closed with a 35.2% loss that is still just a 2-month low. SFIX is a surprisingly sizable component of XRT with a 1% share. The largest holding has a 2.1% share (more on that later). I have been fascinated by the SFIX story ever since I heard the CEO tell her story. Now I am even more fascinated given the current volatility and a float which is sold 24% short.
Carvana (CVNA) is the largest holding in XRT with a 2.1% share. This company sells used cars online and delivers them from multi-story vending machines. CVNA dropped 5.2% on the day and broke down below its 50DMA. This 2017 IPO is on a tear and is up 185% year-to-date. CVNA traded almost down to $8 in 2017. The stock now looks like a short, but short interest is extremely high. I took particular interest in the news events surrounding what looks like a topping pattern in the making around all-time highs: a large owner dumped a significant number of shares, an important competitor made a noteworthy financial deal (I first learned about Shift 2 1/2 years ago in an intriguing talk by the CEO Minnie Ingersoll at Stanford University’s eCorner: “A Drive to Disrupt“), and an analyst upgraded CVNA to outperform right into the teeth of the selling with no effect. A complete reversal of post-earnings gains would confirm the top.
Surprisingly, Best Buy (BBY) does not show up in the top 10 holdings for XRT (cut-off at 1.4% share of assets). Still, the stock’s 4.8% drop and 50DMA breakdown confirmed the weakness in the retail sector. BBY is extremely important to watch here because a test of 200DMA support is in play. BBY last tested its 200DMA in September, 2017. BBY last closed below this support in July, 2016!
Finally, I checked out one of my favorite retail plays: Nordstrom (JWN). JWN sold off with the sector to close right at 50DMA support. The price is still too high for me, but I am a buyer if it manages to return to the extended consolidation period that preceded the impressive August post-earnings breakout.
Now retail has joined forces with other indices like small caps and financials to add weight to the anchor loading down the stock market. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above 40DMAs, dropped to a 6-month low at 37.2% even as the S&P 500 (SPY) closed flat (still near all-time highs) and the volatility index, the VIX, also closed flat. Losing retailers to a fresh sell-off like the one in 2017 would make me doubt the underlying health of the consumer and the stock market as a whole given home builders have struggled for most of 2018. Stay tuned…
Be careful out there!
Full disclosure: long SPY calls, long UVXY puts
{Look me up at Dr. Duru on StockTwits or Twitter or my blog!}
XRT is in trouble this weekI see lots of issues setting up in Retail this week. I see no reason to press longs at this point short term.
XRT watching closelyHolding a long term double top. Instead of taking off on the breakout we seem to be flagging at all time highs. I'd keep close eye on AMZN. That beast is a heavy top holding.
xrt is turning bullish on daily chartMACD is positive, RSI is improving but not overbought. It alos broke the triangle. It's bullish to the recent high with the possible support at ma8.
Retail time to shineTrend break, if it clears the 46 chop zone might go up for a while. 46.17 key level
XRT I see a whole lot of riskPotential squeeze tomorrow but the fib fan zones suggest the bottom is not in yet.
I still like Retail!!Hey guys
I am adding retail sector to my watchlist. I still like this chart. Monthly macd crossed up and price currently finding support at kijun. I will be looking at weekly chart and will jump in once i get proper long signal.
There is so much noise out there -forex, cryptos, stocks and bonds and yadi yada yada. People are yelling and screaming about crash and dollar. I listen to some podcasts for macro views and it surprises me how these guys run the hedge fund. They trade on the basis of fundamentals and their opinions all the time rather than a system and man they got horrible timing. I call them " i think " traders. I guess you all know about Bill Ackman . Don't get me wrong, sometime i do it too and i am not perfect but man i don't do it everytime. If i do take a trade like that, it will be with small position size .
Everytime spx makes a red candle, everyone puts their bear suit on and start talking about crash. I been seeing that every since i started trading.
I was hanging out with some friends the other night and one guy, who is a friend of a friend, goes he made 170k in ether trade. I am like really. And you will yell and scream now and prove that you are a genius .Do you even have a model? I doubted that guy made anything the moment he yelled. By the time party was over, he was asking me if we can sit down and I can tell him about ledger and some brokers.Even ask me about my opinion on cryptos. I am like yeah you definitely made 170k bro. He is not the first one i saw talking about it. I have seen so many people screaming. One thing i know in this industry is that those who actually make money, do not talk or show off pictures. Those who don't are actually opposite. It's pretty amazing lol.
Anyway I will do some more monthly charts next week .
Thank you for the read.
What's your opinion? Resistance or a Breakout? Comment here!#Retail at the moment of truth. $GPS $COST $XLY #stocks #trading
Just a little bit to the upside for #Retail before bullish break#stocks #trading $GPS $KORS $XRT #Investing
Retail ripping back higher XRTWe've seen a massive rip in retail with XRP in the last couple days.
Finally breaking out of this 6 month long Head and Shoulders bottoming pattern. Breaking out over that neckine of 42 was the buy signal. Overall, retail is still in a down trend, and that downward trendline from 2015 highs is our target as well as where we should face profit taking and resistance. It is also coincidentally the 200% measured move of the head and shoulders pattern. Those technical levels always work out despite what the nay sayers may tell you.
THE TRADE:
Long over 42 (head and shoulders neck line)
Target 45 (measured mvoe of head and shoulders)
Stop under 42
We want to be buying the dips on this rip until we reach our target.
