Structural Inflation is an Expired SandwichWe are headed for ✨ deflation ✨ so I am bullish on long-duration treasury bonds, gold, and utilities!
My rationale for my position is I went to Mac Donalds, and I paid for 6 piece shiggen nuggets 6 months ago and it cost me $8.40 and today I went to the same Mac Donald it only costed me $8.37.
PLS
Key stats
About PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund
Home page
Inception date
Oct 30, 2009
Structure
Open-Ended Fund
Dividend treatment
Distributes
Distribution tax treatment
Ordinary income
Income tax type
Capital Gains
Max ST capital gains rate
39.60%
Max LT capital gains rate
20.00%
Primary advisor
Pacific Investment Management Co. LLC
Distributor
PIMCO Investments LLC
ZROZ's high-duration play makes it hypersensitive to every twitch in interest rates. It tracks an index of long-term Treasurys with coupon cash flows removed, leaving only the principal repayment at the end. Called STRIPs, these securities are sold at deep discount to face value and make no interest payments until they mature at par. Since STRIPs are zero coupon bonds, they are particularly sensitive to interest-rate risk. As a result, the fund's effective duration is much higher, which in turn produces volatile results compared with vanilla long-dated Treasurys. Despite the lack of coupons from the underlying zeroes, the fund itself makes quarterly distributions with proceeds from bonds sold at rebalance.
Classification
What's in the fund
Exposure type
Government
Bonds, Cash & Other100.00%
Government91.29%
Miscellaneous8.69%
Cash0.02%
Bull Case for ZROZFollowing a classic "cup and handle" calculation. We could see this behavior, where we have another 20 to 25% increase in ZROZ. (It could also coincide with Fed decisions dates).
This applies to EDV and TLT.
Looking at this going much higher about 45% by late October.... quite bold... but !!!
Zero coupon bonds 🚀This is the most extreme US Treasury bond ETF. Basically pay some amount and get back face value in 25 years. Inflation would kill these, whereas deflation and falling interest rates will send this to the moon.
Interestingly this pays a dividend in line with other bonds, I looked it up and it looks
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Summarizing what the indicators are suggesting.
Oscillators
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Neutral
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Neutral
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Neutral
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Moving Averages
Neutral
SellBuy
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Moving Averages
Neutral
SellBuy
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Strong sellSellNeutralBuyStrong buy
Displays a symbol's price movements over previous years to identify recurring trends.