Structural Inflation is an Expired SandwichWe are headed for ✨ deflation ✨ so I am bullish on long-duration treasury bonds, gold, and utilities!
My rationale for my position is I went to Mac Donalds, and I paid for 6 piece shiggen nuggets 6 months ago and it cost me $8.40 and today I went to the same Mac Donald it only costed me $8.37.
PLS NOTE THIS IS NOT SUPLES TO BE FINANCIAL ADIVCE SPEK TO A PROVESIONAL FINANCA ADVIRO LMAO JK JUST BUY THE STUFF IM BUYING**
***note: the treasury market is the largest and most liquid marked in the world and ur buying has no effect on it cuz the primary buyers are banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and the fed (but they are still doing qt rn cuz they are LOSERS)
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remember 2 drink water
ZROZ trade ideas
Bull Case for ZROZFollowing a classic "cup and handle" calculation. We could see this behavior, where we have another 20 to 25% increase in ZROZ. (It could also coincide with Fed decisions dates).
This applies to EDV and TLT.
Looking at this going much higher about 45% by late October.... quite bold... but !!!
Zero coupon bonds 🚀This is the most extreme US Treasury bond ETF. Basically pay some amount and get back face value in 25 years. Inflation would kill these, whereas deflation and falling interest rates will send this to the moon.
Interestingly this pays a dividend in line with other bonds, I looked it up and it looks like the fund has to do this for tax purposes, but the underlying security has literally a Macaulay duration of 25 years. TLT by comparison is 17 years (per iShares website), so duration risk is 50% higher.
Using fibs a modest pullback to 78, completing a IHS, would be a great place to start loading up, assuming 1) this thing doesn't just take off right here, and 2) I'm not totally wrong and inflation comes back next year.