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ARGENTINE PESO / U.S. DOLLAR

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ARSUSD trade ideas

Dolar en Argentina en corto y mediano plazo USD/ARSLuego de testear dos veces consecutivas su resistencia psicológica ubicada en torno a los 16 pesos, baja al piso de su tendencia alcista de largo plazo. En los últimos días se aprecia una fuerte tendencia al alza, con aumento de la volatilidad. Testeando nuevamente su resistencia histórica, confirmada previamente con un DT. Consideramos q la tendencia continúa al alza, y es por ello que ubicamos un fuerte soporte en torno a los 15 pesos. Comparando el comportamiento con el par EUR/USD y los acontecimientos políticos reciente en Latinoamérica, concluimos que si bien la tendencia continúa siendo alcista, vamos a apreciar una pequeña corrección en el corto plazo. Debemos recordar que la argentina realizará elecciones de mediano plazo en octubre, lo que mantendrá expectativas muy altas y un mayor control del BCRA. Una vez pasada las elecciones, consideramos que el par buscará posicionarse en valores superiores a los 17 pesos.
Long
by MaxuuSalvadores
ARSUSD: Hold pesos, term deposits yield 17% per yearI'd hold pesos now, personally. As part of my currency holdings. I wouldn't be in USD if possible, and would prefer other assets, like foreign currencies, EEM shares vs SPY shorts, TLT longs, gold/silver/bitcoin/ethereum, undervalued selected stocks, TSLA shares, VLKAY shares, perhaps the new COIN etf shares once they are released, Argentinian stocks on corrections or dips, names like BMA, CRES, IRSA are my favorites. I'm out of them, but looking to rebuy on dips. People are terrified, they fear a crisis, they fear the local currency and stocks, they fear Trump...Many are closing businesses they recently opened, out of fear of the government's actions but I think it's a sentiment extreme and should be faded. I remain optimistic. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
USDARS: Next up leg startingI think it's fairly certain to see more upside in USDARS right away. If you own pesos and live in Argentina,it's wise to sell them for silver/gold/dollars periodically. Now is a good time. I reccomend splitting with a bigger weight on USD bills, due to gold and silver volatility. Right now, the trade favors dollar strength, so you'd increase your dollar holdings next. You can rebalance this portfolio periodically, or even go back to pesos, and use term deposits to earn interest while the Peso strengthtens (usually down legs last a 1-3 months). Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDARS: Update, we broke the key levelThis doesn't bode well for my local currency, the Argentine Peso. It's possible this week triggers a weekly time at mode uptrend signal, that forecasts a rally to at least 16.052 within ten weeks, starting with this week as #1. With the fundamental events this week, it's possible this is the start of the acceleration and breakout of this range, specially now that RgMov has shifted into an uptrend in the daily chart, and that we're above the fundamental key levels originated from local events (presidential speeches). Good luck to us all (mostly Argentinian residents that have to deal with hyperinflation). Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDARS: Confirmed a daily uptrend in placeMy local currency is in terrible shape, and has confirmed a daily uptrend as per the RgMov signal on chart. You can see the key levels associated to speeches by the Argentinian president Mauricio Macri, and how price action has moved between these levels so far. I anticipate a breakout of this level above, and a continued rally in this currency pair. If you took my advice and bought dollars, and/or gold/silver with your pesos, you're doing well. Keep at it, Good luck, and brace yourselves if you live here. Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDARS: Downtrend continuation in this pairAgainst all odds, the USDARS pair is showing continued weakness and has fired a time at mode downtrend in the daily chart. I'm seeing it dropping to retest the 13.5-12.95 range before any upside is viable. I had reccomend to sell dollars at 15.25, after buying at 14.70, and to buy back today, but this drop warrants further downside, so either short it, or buy more dollars to average the entry lower. If trading it electronically, go short at market or on a slight pullback with stops above 14.35. Rgmov has fired a downtrend, confirming my bias, most people would expect the peso to see some easing considering the recent bond issuance ( www.zerohedge.com ), but there's still strength in it. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
USDARS: Update - 2 weeks to define the trendThe USDARS pair has an interesting setup, on one hand, the uptrend that started after monetary policy changed, has failed to reach the target on time, suggesting a selloff was possible (which did in fact materialize). I have reccomended my fellow countrymen to sell their dollars at the 15.8-15.4 mark, but it's time to pay attention to go long the dollar again, possibly, unless the downtrend is confirmed in 2 weeks or less. If you have peso savings, wait fo a good chance to convert them to dollars, if you're still in dollars and haven't sold, well, you should have paid more attention to my forecast #1, #2, don't panic, you might get a good opportunity to unload your dollars higher soon, or more reasons to hold them too. For people actually trading this pair electronically, I'd reccomend using ATR based stops, and/or no leverage, since volatility can be quite extreme. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
USDARS: Target is 18.744We are at a very critical juncture in the market, and it's possible to see increased chances of a rally in oil and equities, and probably a dollar decline against emerging markets currencies, at least vs the yen, aussie and canadian. Argentina's monetary policy might make the selling pressure persist though, and we might see this target hit in little time. The consequences might be harsh, with price increases, and increased costs for employers, with improbable raises in the minimum wage, or at least not enough to accomodate basic expenses any middle class or lower family might have. That being said, I will update this chart if I change my view, for now, this is the setup on chart, and what makes sense with my country's fundamentals. Energy costs increase, despite falling crude, add to it rising crude, and it's even worse, so let's see how it pans out. This was a very rough adjustment, after years of holding a ceiling artificially, which did have its costs too. Good luck, fellow Argentinians. Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
ARSUSD: Long pesos, yes...long.Here I am with a little contrarian idea. There's a nice 15% spread to be filled when comparing the Argentine peso to the other South American economies. The stock market also took a nose dive and is poised to retrace, since it's possible that live cattle and soybeans will head up from this point (and the Merval has a healthy correlation with those two among other agriculturals, for obvious reasons). That being said, to my fellow countrymen, this is a nice low risk trade, upside is 15%, downside is merely 2%. Sell dollar for 13, buy back at 10-11, give or take, and or invest in other assets once we reach that target. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2