ASX:COH ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS - 8 JAN, 2025 - BULLISH©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-Master.
Function: Major trend (Minor degree, grey)
Mode: Motive
Structure: Impulse
Position: Wave (y)-orange of Wave ((2))-navy
Details: Looking closer, wave (2)-orange looks like it is developing as a Flat labeled A,B,C-grey, and we still have a push lower with wave C-grey. Then wave (3)-orange will return to head higher. On the other hand, the rapid and strong penetration of the 309.63 high directly suggests that wave (3)-orange in the ALT alternative scenario is probably unfolding.
Invalidation point: 17.80
Confirmation point: 19.65
COH trade ideas
COH.ASX: 23 July, 2024© Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation).
Wave ((4))-navy appears to have ended at the low of 318.39 as a Triangle, and wave ((5))-navy is unfolding to push higher; aiming for around 386.63 - 400.00 or higher.
Invalidation point: 318.39
Analysis: Bullish Channel Here we are in a bullish channel situation on 4 hours. So if we have the breakout with force the resistance line by a big green candle with a large green volume it's mean that we will have a big probability of an uptrend. But, we must be vigilant. In other hand, if we have the breakout with force the vwap indicator and the support line by a big red candle with a large red volume so it's mean that the sellers are there and we will have a big probability of a downtrend. Thanks.
Cochlear Ltd - Following 5 Consecutive Down WeeksCochlear Ltd has just recorded 5 consecutive down weeks. Since 2000, the 11-week forward interval following this type of persistent weakness is unblemished. 11-week average return 10.30%, win rate 15 from 15, standard deviation 6.39%, median 11.45%, maximum 23.32%, minimum 2.24%.
Interestingly, looking at the in-sample data of this particular setup, of the 165-weeks at risk (15 events x 11-weeks), 78.79% of all event weeks (130-weeks /165-weeks)
recorded a positive outcome up to and including the 11-week optimal outlook period.
Disclaimer: This data is not financial advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. Past performance does not diminish the risk expectancy of any strategy. By its very nature ‘risk’ means you could and most likely will experience losses. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information provided. Data is for educational and informational purposes only.
Cochlear Ltd - Relative Return following 5 Relative Down WeeksCochlear Ltd (ASX:COH) has underperformed the All Ordinaries Index for 5 consecutive weeks (relative up week followed by 5 relative down weeks). Since 2000, this type of relative underperformance is reasonably rare having been observed on 14 overlap adjusted occasions (at least 13-weeks between each event over continuous rolling 13-week intervals).
This relative underperformance was usually reversed with a period of relative outperformance. After these episodes of weakness, COH provided a 10-week relative average return of 6.29%, with a win rate of 13 from 14, & standard deviation of 4.66%.
Interestingly, this recent weakness has moved the price of COH to a level that is in line with the Refinitiv Analyst Survey average price estimate of $225.37 (16 analysts).
COH - Are we getting a Buying Opportunity Right Away?COH seems to be a buy right away, as it has bounced off with a massive Bullish Candle, with above average High Volume and simultaneously giving a Bullish MACD Cross. It has been falling off like a rock since the 19th of November High of roughly $240.00 all the way down to around $177.00 (Support Zone), shedding almost 26%, but I think we may have seen a Medium Term Low as it has bounced off strongly.
I believe that COH should continue to move higher until it finds resistance at the R1 zone between $205.00 - $210.00 range at TP1, giving a potential gain of 20% on the position and move even higher to $220.00 region where my TP2 lies, to give a further 12% gain (or 32% gain in total position).
Please note these are my own notes, by no means trading advice. Please do your own research before entering into any trade.
COH Cup and HandleASX:COH has formed a Cup and Handle on the 1 hour chart which serves as a strong typically serves as a strong buy signal. Could be potential for a breakout with some a shift in momentum. Volume was strong on the upside and has been depleting on the sell side which is textbook for a cup and handle. Will need to see a break above the 199.78 for breakout to occur.