FMG trade ideas
Bullish potential detected for FMGEntry conditions:
(i) higher share price for ASX:FMG along with swing up of indicators such as DMI/RSI.
Stop loss for the trade (once activated) would be:
(i) below the support level from the open of 14th November (i.e.: below $18.20), or
(ii) below the support level from the open of 21st November (i.e.: below $17.87), depending on risk tolerance.
ASX:FMG ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS: 1 DEC, 2024©Master of Elliott Wave: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Desgination).
So the wave ((iii))-navy could be unfolding to push higher, targeting the high around 23.84, a break of which would take us to 28.80.
While price must remain above 17.54 to maintain this view.
BHP - Potential Short in the InterimMorning you absolute trading legends.
What we have here is a a potenial short building up on the BHP Chart.
The Materials sector is looking rather 'weak' for the first time in the last 8-9yrs, having broken out and down out of a very strong upward channel.
That being said, its this big mining giants that are holding up the entire sector (irrespectively)
Now the pattern i am seeing here is a continuation pattern, where, depending on the location of this formation, it generally dictates where the price will go.
Now seeing as the overall chart, is looking a little bearish these days, the last massive price drop cause a bit of a sweep and resulted in a massive bounce to the upside "Every action has an opposite and equal reaction". Since that bounce, we had a nice pullback, and a bit of a triangle form (very sexy mind you) and price finally starting to behave more rationally.
Accumulation is building now and i would expect a form of 'Manipulation' to occur to the downside, doing another 'liquidity sweep', hitting either one of those 2 boxes highlighted on the chart above.
The first one closing the gap, which could result in a nice bounce. Or, and i would suspect, price to head down to the lower second box, give it a tickle, possibly form an ABC triangle pattern (Double Bottom) at/on one of those 2 boxes, then i would expect price to bounce and run off to the upside..Pending on what happens in the world.
FMG.ASX: 16 JULY, 2024 © Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation).
Details: The short-term outlook shows that wave ((ii))-navy just ended at the low of 21.02 and wave ((iii))-navy seems to be opening to push higher, but a move higher is needed. a little more to confirm this view.
Invalidation point: 21.02
FMG A good company for long term hold
Analyzing Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX: FMG) through the lens of Warren Buffett's investment principles:
Economic Moat
Fortescue has a significant economic moat derived from its scale and efficiency in the iron ore industry, one of the largest sectors in Australia. It possesses extensive infrastructure, including railways, ports, and shipping capabilities, which are critical to its operations and hard for competitors to replicate. This vertical integration allows Fortescue to maintain lower production costs compared to many peers.
Management Quality
Under the leadership of founder and chairman Andrew Forrest, Fortescue has demonstrated strategic foresight, particularly with its push into renewable energy sectors through its Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) initiative. This move could diversify revenue streams and reduce reliance on iron ore prices. However, investors may need to monitor how well the company transitions into these new areas and manages the risks involved.
Financial Health
Fortescue is known for its strong cash flow generation, which supports a robust dividend yield of around 8.40% as of the latest reports (Yahoo Finance). It has a healthy balance sheet with manageable debt levels, which is crucial for enduring the cyclical nature of the commodities market. The company's P/E ratio of around 8.81 indicates a reasonable valuation relative to its earnings, suggesting it is not overvalued in the current market (Yahoo Finance) (Yahoo Finance).
Valuation
Buffett emphasizes purchasing stocks at a price that represents a significant discount to their intrinsic value, offering a margin of safety. Fortescue's current market valuation, coupled with its strategic investments in growth areas like green energy, might make it an attractive proposition if these sectors realize their projected potential. However, intrinsic value calculations would need a detailed analysis of projected cash flows and growth rates.
Price
It is informing an impulse way to target 54$-71$
Conclusion
Fortescue appears to align well with several of Buffett's investment criteria: it has a strong economic moat, competent management, solid financials, and a valuation that could offer a margin of safety depending on one's assumptions about the future of both iron ore and renewable energy markets. Prospective investors should continue to monitor the execution of its green energy initiatives and any significant fluctuations in iron ore prices, which could impact its financial performance and strategic direction.
FMG: March 6, 2024(ASX) FMG Fortescue || March 6, 2024
Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Shane Hua (CEWA-M)
(Left chart) The broader context (Daily chart) suggests that wave ((iii))-green appears to have peaked at 29.95, followed by a corrective wave movement labeled ABC-purple. Overall, the context allows me to see that the rise of the Bull market is necessary; it's just too early to conclude this, and there may still be a further decline with wave v-blue. It can be said that the decline with wave (c)-purple seems severe, sharper, and stronger than wave (a), which often implies something is not right. However, I think you need to understand the weaknesses or risks you have to endure when investing in a bull market; who knows this decline could go even lower? What I can do for you is to provide high-quality analysis, forecasts, and I will help you continuously monitor until everything becomes clear.
(Right chart) Moving on to the short-term outlook (4H Chart), you can see that wave (c)-purple seems to be in the process of completing enough five-waves downward movement; short positions could work well. Furthermore, if this is correct, then from the low of 25.24 is where the start of a Bull market lies. But the risk in this case if you trade is too significant; at least you should wait for the high of 26.44 to be broken because FMG may be forming a Triangle pattern, so there is still a wave v-blue decline to a lower low before the Bull market truly resumes. However, when the high of 26.44 is broken, it will negate that bearish view and allow you to seek trading opportunities with the Bull market.
Fortescue Fortescue is showing signs of weakness after failing to break out from last month's IHS/cup formation.
There's potential for a drop to $15.
Bullish Hidden Divergence vs Bearish Hidden DivergenceHere is an explanation on the Bullish and Bearish Hidden Divergence concepts
Rules are as follows:
Bullish Hidden Divergence
Happens only in uptrend
Observed on pivot lows
Price makes higher low, whereas indicator makes lower low due to price consolidation. In bullish trend, this is considered as bullish as the price gets a breather and get ready to surge further.
Bearish Hidden Divergence
Happens only in downtrend
Observed on pivot Highs
Price makes lower high whereas oscillator makes higher high due to price consolidation. In bearish trend, this is considered as bearish as the price gets a breather and get ready to fall further.
Watch out for breakouts against the trend.
Quick Look - Bullish Divergence vs Bearish DivergenceHere is a graphical representation of the simple concept of bullish and bearish divergences.
Rules are pretty clear
Bearish Divergence
Happens only in uptrend
Observed on pivot Highs
Price makes higher high whereas oscillator makes lower high, indicating weakness and possible reversal
Bullish Divergence
Happens only in downtrend
Observed on pivot Lows
Price makes lower low whereas oscillator makes higher low, indicating weakness and possible reversal
Watch out for hidden divergences on the opposite pivots and breakouts in the direction of trend.
FMG.ASX_Bullish Pullback Trade_LongENTRY: 22.67
SL: 21.77
TP: 23.64 - 23.99
- ADX<25. Would like to be higher.
- Daily RS +ve
- Daily FFI -ve
- Weekly RS +ve
- Weekly FFI +ve
- Moving averages are aligned.
- Stoch RSI crosses up 20.
- Entry based on controlled pullback until 3 Feb 2023 to resistance-turn-support area (21.77) and rebounded but would like an increasing volume.
FMG StrongFMG RSI is higher than YTD at a resistance indicating strength
MACD different look as YTD at resistance indicating strength
2 possible scenarios,
Jump to previous high
Retracement to 60 FIB
KOGANA flat pattern will might end up the wave 4. The next target is likely to achieve leg c of a zigzag family ABC. Support is as the fib ratio of 78.6% which is the same support where the wave 4 of an impulse had ended.
FMG- Possibly Bull flag? possibly bull flag (the falling wedge). The price has to break the resistance zone around $20 for the entry. Target the same as the pole in between $26-$30.
*not a trading tips. wave count might be wrong.
SHORT FMGThanks for viewing
Just a simple technical analysis of the share price of FMG assuming continued correction from all time highs. Mostly just based on the Iron ore price having lost 55% from 2021 highs and still being 50% (while FMG is only down only 28%) down presently.
Mapped out some support / demand and resistance / supply zones. Thinking something around sub-$12 would be a good short-term target (although I expect a bounce at the $14 level). Also based on 1:1 extension of the deep correction and retrace and a 1.618 extension of what may be wave 1 & 2 of the last 5 waves down to complete the correction. They line up relatively closely, so it seems like a good spot.
Price may push above the 200EMA before continuing correction, although near-term upside potentially $19.50. We will see.
Fundamental... more and more speculation about the debt crisis unfolding in China in the property and banking sectors. We can never get the full picture. However, that combination of issues could seriously dent imports - especially construction steel.
Increasing possibility that anecdotal evidence of a steep drop-off in residential construction in China is accurate. But, we don't have to speculate that far given the weakness in global iron ore prices. While FMG's cost of production is around $15 per ton it will clearly still be profitable, there will be less profit and earnings forecasts due later this month are lower than the previous Q1 and any further weakness in global iron ore prices will probably prompt at least some investors to sell up and continue the downside correction.
Protect those funds.
Fortescue Metals Australia Sun Storm Investment Trading Desk & NexGen Wealth Management Service Present's: SSITD & NexGen Portfolio of the Week Series
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Is FMG in a Livermore Accumulation Cylinder?So I'm most of the way through Jessie Livermore's classic books on audible Reminiscences of a Stock Operator & Jesse Livermore’s Methods of Trading in Stocks . Looking back at this FMG chart could this be considered a Livermore accumulation cylinder? Love to know your thoughts! Comment / Find me on Twitter.
FMG fortescue metalsstrong upward trend since 2019, broke above top BB line, looking for retrace, good entry $19.80, exit $23.90, 20% profit, very bullish long term
fotescue metals FMCif doesnt break the $21.50 resistance line , should retrace to $16.50 good entry point to go long back to $19.80 for 20%
48800% move in 59 months after 4th star milestone achievedChart trading would of gotten you in at a low risk entry point for #Fortescue.
Not at the bottom, but still yielded some insane gains.
FMG - Is it headed to $30 ?Fmg - looks like the uptrend is about to resume.
Key techinical - Inverse head and shoulders formation. FMG chart suggests it could be headed to $30. Resistance at $26. 20% upside.
Key fundamental - Iron ore prices at record highs to continue, resulting in record EPS ( big dividends ).
