FMG trade ideas
Fortescue Metals - oversold yet?Price at time of analysis is 45.5% discounted from high.
Price action seems to have created a base over the last month with RSI divergence.
depending on your time horizon current prices seem cheap especially when considering the company's fundamentals.
FMG / Fortescue holding supportFortescue has been in a steady downtrend since the drop of iron ore prices in August. Since October, however, it was able to hold support at around 14 over and over again. With the recent drop in SGX:FEF1! this especially notable.
I am fundamentally bullish on Fortescue due to its fundamentals (balance sheet, green hydrogen ambitions, autonomous hauling) but it's hard to find a good entry point with iron ore prices plunging this rapidly.
FMG Looking for directionNo clear direction for FMG for now, give it time to develop and come back to add the bars. Waiting for a break either way. there is upside momentum on the daily but we are still below the zero line and the weekly stoch is not crossed up. Hurry up and wait as they say.
Giving consideration to exchange rates and Iron ore price.
$FMG another wave down expectedWith iron ore sales plummeting and not looking rosy on the China front, time and price wise is looking bad for FMG
10 down down, 5 days up to 1.375 retracement.
expecting fmg to reach 13 by end of October (tentatively 22nd) . 13 is also the top resistance back in Jan 2020. Old top (resistance) becomes new bottom (support)
I have been shorting FMG since mid September and wish i had done it earlier.
Comments welcome
FMG little hope otherwise $11 range next.With current uncertainly www.commsec.com.au
following is a snippet from news:
1. Either way, Aussie investors are indirectly exposed to Evergrande through the Chinese property sector’s insatiable demand for iron ore. The price of the steel-making ingredient - Australia’s most important export - has already halved from record highs of around US$233 a tonne in May, following China’s clampdown on the property sector and pollution.
2. A downdraught in Chinese property prices would further subdue construction and reduce iron ore demand. Of course, a potential Evergrande default would be catastrophic for steel demand and shares of Aussie-listed iron ore producers.
with current levle of uncertainlty, it's just like catching falling knife, unless we get trend reversal confirmation.
I will be looking for following conditions:
next week if it closes above $16, would give us some hope - OR -
if it goes below $13.50 then next stop would be $11 range.
Please note these are my own notes for future reference, by no means trading advise to anyone. Also, please feel free to comment or share your thoughts.
FMG Price Channel Oct-21 Through Dec-23Fortescue Metals Group (ASX:FMG)
This chart provides two price levels of established historical support. FMG shares have taken a bruising since late July in tight correlation with the drop in iron ore prices. Falling prices and the Evergrande debacle in China, its biggest importing nation, have been a 1-2 punch on this otherwise healthy and growing Australian mining company.
Macro trends and commodities price forecast will be a main driver in the short and medium term.
Comfortably in the top 5 iron ore producing companies in the world, Fortescue is the largest landholder in Western Australia. A solid balance sheet and strong bottom-line growth position this stock well for the long term future.
Highlighted Metrics (source WSJ 2021-10-07):
P/E = 3.14
Debt to EBITDA = 0.26
Quick Ratio = 2.00
Buying BloodFear is high in this one as Iron Ore prices fall and the uncertainty of china cutting off Australia, I believe this company will adapt to any changes and be an innovator for renewable energy which is not being priced in currently.
FMG scalpLooking for price to bounce off the 0.78 and 0.85 fib levels to complete the B wave and give a C wave. This would be just a scalp trade as it may have lower to drop longer term.
FMGI thought it woudl keep going up, but it's exytended that thin bullflag into a lower cell - so double and and there's snot only neat symmetry with a lower cell and a good waisteband lining up with features to hang them off, but multiple gradients in there .. SO another week or so for FMG, I'd reckon, with a retest of the TL below - see teh RSI30 line coming up to repell/support. If it breaks lower it's a sell.
HOW-TO: Zigzag Trend/Divergence DetectorHere is a short video on basics of divergence and how to use Zigzag Trend/Divergence detector script.
Most of the things mentioned are already available in the indicator description. As mentioned many times, just follow the cheat sheet:
(ASX: FMG) Short for short term, Long for long term.This is an updated TA, with a bit more detail than my last. Trading plan is setup so that I buy on the green line, and continue purchasing on the downtrend. I have not opened any positions yet.
ASX:FMGThe recent drop in iron ore prices has seen the major mining companies being beaten down, the selling has now reached panic proportions and of all the big miners Fortescue has faired the worst. While I am not saying this is a good time to buy, as iron ore prices still have fundamental head winds to contend with and the prices can certainly move much lower before smaller miners are forced out the market and the supply glut begins to dissipate. However expect some consolidation or a small bounce within the highlighted zone before any moves lower are made. This zone will be the first major test for bulls if the can keep prices around the $15.00 mark and a floor develops in the next few months in iron ore prices this could develop into a good buying opportunity. Don't be surprised though if price consolidates before moving lower to one of the highlighted support zones.
*Not a recommendation to buy or sell, simply for educational purposes*
(ASX: FMG) Short pos - Feb 2022Basing this idea purely off past market trends. Last double top experienced a 80% dip, although I doubt we'll see that, at best a 34% retrace.
FMG Fortescue on important resistanceThe Australian iron ore miner has reached an important resistance. The next moves could be decisive for the near future of the stock. However, the recent drop in iron ore prices (see chart FEF1! ) makes any predictions difficult.
FMG itself is - from my point of view - still fundamentally very interesting due to low debt, its investments into the future (autonomous, cero carbon, hydrogen) and inflationary politics from central banks.
Risks: China, iron ore prices, disasters
FMG Short ScenarioI am short on FMG due to the double top as well as divergence signal. Lets see how this plays out
FMG LONGFMG has always been my great holding , im seeing price will go up to $28 at ATH , i didnt post my previous work before as im not confident with my analysis , now i will keep update on my work !
break out from headnshoulder and symmetrical triangle
Go Long on mining stocks $FMG Fortescue MetalsBroke out today, I do expect $FMG to go higher in the short to mid-term just like BHP.
FMG Daily ChartAscending triangle forming for Fortescue on the daily chart. Potential breakout to the upside if it can breach the previously tested level of $24.00.
Fairly solid support trendline dating back to March 2020. #FMG
FMG / Fortescue Metals Group breaking out?Fortescue Metals Group is on my list due to great fundamentals.
Technicals now seem to indicate a breakout? Can anyone confirm this? Still newbie :)
$FMG - Fortescue Metals Group pretty healthy looking accumulation/consolidation after a solid run on the 2D
ASX: FMG Long PosCan't be bothered explaining the thesis, I'll probably post that on reddit somewhere... anyway, price target sits at $28.49.
FMG - Inverted Head & Shoulder Looking quite a clean setup with a continued trend line to intersect at end - and Fibonaacci just happens to be in that right place too...perhaps
