SPY Hanging on Mid-Range Support – Will It Rebound or Flush?⚠️ Technical Analysis (TA) – Intraday View
Current Price: ~$567.56
* SPY recently experienced a CHoCH followed by BOS, but now formed a new CHoCH → bearish shift in structure.
* Price is testing a minor demand zone between 566–567, holding just above the larger support base at 560–555.
* Volume increased on recent sell candles, showing seller control — but Stoch RSI signals nearing exhaustion.
Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover – but histogram showing potential slowing of momentum.
* Stoch RSI: Deeply oversold and starting to turn up – signals possible bounce/retracement coming.
🔐 Key Levels
Support Zones:
* 566–567 → Short-term demand / micro CHoCH
* 560 → Highest negative GEX zone – PUT support
* 555–550 → Strong liquidity zone & 2nd PUT Wall
Resistance Zones:
* 572.5 → HVL zone and broken structure
* 580 → Gamma wall zone, strong CALL resistance
* 590–600 → Extended resistance levels for swings
🧠 GEX & Options Flow Analysis (TanukiTrade Pro)
* GEX Sentiment: 🔴🔵🔴 — Bearish skew, with a weak neutral pocket
* IVR: 26.4 → Volatility low, but near option seller zone
* IVx avg: 20.7
* PUT$%: 53.8% — Strong bearish hedging flow
* CALL Resistance: 580 → gamma ceiling
* PUT Wall:
* 560 → Highest negative NetGEX (dealer support)
* 555 & 550 → backup defense zones
* HVL: 572.5 → key flip level
📌 Current setup shows dealers are heavily short gamma below 572.5, causing negative delta pressure.
🛠️ Trade Setups
📈 Bullish Setup – Bounce from 566–567
* If SPY holds and reclaims 570 with strong bid, a move toward HVL possible
* Entry: Break and hold above 570
* Target 1: 572.5
* Target 2: 578
* Stop-Loss: Below 565
* Options Play:
* Buy Apr 3 $575 Calls
* OR Call Debit Spread: Buy $570 / Sell $580
📉 Bearish Setup – Breakdown Below 565
* Confirmed lower high and break of demand → opens trapdoor
* Entry: Below 565 with momentum
* Target 1: 560
* Target 2: 555
* Target 3: 550
* Stop-Loss: Above 570
* Options Play:
* Buy Apr 3 $560 Puts
* OR Put Spread: Buy $565 / Sell $555
🧭 Final Outlook
* Bias: Bearish → unless 572.5 HVL is reclaimed.
* SPY is caught between strong PUT support at 560 and heavy gamma ceiling at 580.
* If market sentiment worsens or macro triggers hit, 555 is the magnet zone.
* If buyers step in and hold 566+, bounce setups are likely — but it must reclaim HVL for any strength.
📛 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please manage your risk accordingly.
