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SPY potential pullback With USA elections looming, geopolitical instability and wars intensifying in the middle east looking at the price action on SPY, currently retesting 570.00 region after swinging in the past two weeks between 574.00 - 565.00. Technical indicators show a possible buyer exhaustion and now a sellers market with investors taking profits therefore possibly driving price action downward. looking to retest support at 550.00 - 545.00. Our main resistance currently is 570.00 if not broken we could see price move to test support levels and below.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Ruli1690
SPY: 2007 vs. 2024 Rate Cut CyclesEconomic Indicators Comparison (2007 vs. 2024): In both 2007 and 2024, several key economic indicators show notable similarities, suggesting the market faces comparable macroeconomic challenges: Unemployment Rate (September 2007: 4.7%; September 2024: 4.2%) US Inflation Rate YoY (September 2007: 2.5%; September 2024: 2.5%) US Housing Starts (September 2007: 1.238M; September 2024: 1.235M) US Leading Economic Activity (September 2007: 100.4; September 2024: 100.4) US Existing Home Sales (September 2007: 4.5M; September 2024: 3.95M) These parallels reinforce the notion that the 2024 market may experience similar stress as 2007 unless significant positive economic developments occur. Overview: The charts and additional data provided give a compelling comparison of two major market cycles: 2007 and 2024. Both cycles show striking similarities in market behavior, particularly surrounding the first rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. We see a top in the S&P 500 (SPX) in July of both years, followed by corrections, recoveries, and rate cuts in September. 2007 Market Behavior: July 17, 2007 - SPX Tops: The S&P 500 peaked in mid-July 2007, reaching new highs as the economy, on the surface, seemed stable. -9.5% Correction: Shortly after the top, the market corrected, declining by 9.5% in response to growing concerns about the subprime mortgage crisis. Full Recovery: The market briefly recovered as investors expected the Federal Reserve to step in with supportive policies. September 18, 2007 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in September 2007, sparking optimism that monetary easing could prevent further economic deterioration. Market Collapse: Despite the rate cuts, the crisis deepened, leading to a full-scale market collapse as the global financial crisis unfolded. 2024 Market Behavior (So Far): July 17, 2024 - SPX Tops: Once again, we see the S&P 500 peak in mid-July 2024, a period marked by inflation concerns and economic uncertainty. -8.6% Correction: Similar to 2007, the market corrected by 8.6%, driven by fears of a potential economic slowdown and the anticipation of monetary policy adjustments. Full Recovery: The market saw a brief recovery, as investors anticipated rate cuts to alleviate economic pressures. September 18, 2024 - First Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve cut rates on September 18, 2024, echoing the 2007 scenario. However, whether the market will collapse, stabilize, or recover remains to be seen. Comparative Analysis: Topping Patterns: Both 2007 and 2024 show a clear topping pattern in July, followed by sharp corrections and subsequent rate cuts in September. This parallel highlights the cyclical nature of market reactions to monetary policy. Rate Cut Effects: Historically, the first rate cut has not always led to an immediate market recovery. In 2007, despite initial optimism, the market eventually collapsed as the underlying economic problems, specifically the subprime crisis, worsened. The question now is whether the 2024 market will follow the same path, especially considering ongoing inflation and potential economic stagnation. Key Observations: Corrections and Recoveries: Both markets experienced similar corrections post-top. The 8.6% correction in 2024 mirrors the 9.5% drop in 2007, showing that investor sentiment and market behavior can repeat under similar macroeconomic pressures. Rate Cut Timing: In both years, rate cuts followed periods of market instability, with the hope that monetary easing would stabilize the economy. However, uncertainty looms in 2024, as it is yet unclear whether these cuts will prevent a deeper recession or lead to further volatility. Potential for Market Collapse in 2024: While the 2007 market collapse was driven by the subprime mortgage crisis, the 2024 market faces different challenges, such as inflationary pressures, geopolitical instability, and evolving global trade dynamics. There remains a risk that the 2024 market could experience a sharp downturn if these issues worsen.
AMEX:SPYShort
by alcoholic-semen-thrower
SPY: A Critical Inflection Point! (D&W charts)In our last analysis last week, we had already identified a critical support point around $565, which is once again acting as a support, as expected. However, in the light of new evidence, we have to update the central point of the idea, and draw up possible scenarios for us to work on next. The link to our prevous analysis on SPY is below this post, as usual. Daily Chart (Left): Previous Top at $574.71: This level represents the recent all-time high, which has become a point of resistance after the price failed to maintain above it. Current Support at $565.16: The price is testing the $565.16 support area, which was previously a resistance level. It is now, for the second time, a crucial level to hold for the continuation of the uptrend. This is the most important inflection point for the SPY. 21-day EMA Support: The price is hovering around the 21-day EMA, adding more significance to this support zone. A daily close below this line could indicate a deeper pullback. Weekly Chart (Right): Possible Evening Star Pattern: The recent weekly candles form a potential evening star pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal signal, especially after a strong uptrend. This pattern is characterized by a small-bodied candle (potential reversal sign) followed by a bearish candle. Key Support Areas: The first support to watch is $565.16, aligning with the daily timeframe, followed by a more significant support at $539.44 if the evening star pattern confirms. Trend Continuation: If the pattern fails to confirm, a weekly close back above $574.71 would invalidate the bearish scenario and signal strength in the current trend. Conclusion: The SPY chart is at a critical juncture. The daily chart shows support holding at $565.16, which is a critical support level and inflection point for the SPY, as a break below this line could trigger a sharper sell-off. The potential evening star pattern on the weekly chart adds bearish pressure, and we should closely monitor the $565.16 level for further clues. If the evening star confirms, the $539.44 support could come into play as a downside target. For bullish continuation, holding above $565.16 and reclaiming the $574.71 level are essential. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
AMEX:SPY
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-3 : Reversal Rally DayOver the past few days, I've posted 4-5+ videos highlighting my SPY Cycle Patterns and how these help traders plan and prepare for future price action/trades. Today's Reversal Rally pattern should prompt a moderately strong upward price move in the SPY/QQQ. I'm expecting the SPY to attempt to rally up into the 572-573 range today - maybe a bit higher. The QQQ may attempt to rally up into the 487-489 range today. Gold and Silver are working through a Temporary Bottom pattern today. This pattern usually starts with a moderate downward price move (setting up a base) and then rolls upward. So, I expect Gold to attempt to move back up to the 2680-2685 level today, and I expect Silver to rally up to the 32.12-32.25 level today. BTCUSD is stuck in the Excess Phase Peak setup's downward (rolling base) pattern. This rolling base will likely take more than 2-4 days to resolve before we'll start to see BTCUSD move into the FLAGGING stage of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. This suggests BTCUSD will struggle over the next 4 to 7 days before resolving into a moderate uptrend (the FLAGGING stage) - leading to a make-or-break price move sometime near October 15-19 or so. That make-or-break move could be huge depending on how BTCUSD resolves the end of the FLAGGING phase. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
$SPY October 3, 2024AMEX:SPY October 3, 2024 15 Minutes. As expected, AMEX:SPY was in sideways sort out the two long bars of 1st October. For the fall 574.38 to 565.27 AMEX:SPY had retraced 61.88 around 570 levels. For the rise 565.27 to 569.9 AMEX:SPY had again retraced 61.8% of that move to 567 levels. Now AMEX:SPY made a low at 565.27 and we can see oscillator divergence. Hence this number is important to hold now. If we draw an extension for the move 567.27 to 569.9 to 567.58, we can see 570 - 572 as initial target. At the moment AMEX:SPY below 100 and 200 averages in 15 minutes. Hence a long only above 571 with the close of bar near the top. On downside I expect strong support around 562 563 levels being 200 averages in 60 Minutes time frame. So, we are stuck between 563 to 571 today most probably for a buy above or sell below trade. I expect to have a trade tomorrow, Friday.
AMEX:SPY
by RiderTrader
For tomorrow's SPY Technical Analyst (October 3, 2024)The market sentiment is leaning towards bearish following recent weakness due to a slight pullback in the broader market. Currently, SPY is trading around $568 with some volatility. Technical Analysis: Support Levels: Immediate support is seen around $565, which was tested recently. If it breaks below this, $560 could be the next significant support level. Resistance Levels: On the upside, resistance is around $570, which also aligns with where sellers have been active. Breaking above this level could target the next zone around $574. Price Action & Trend: There seems to be consolidation between $565 and $570. A move above $570 could indicate bullish continuation, while a drop below $565 may signal further downside​( markets.businessinsider.com). Entry/Exit Points: Potential Entry: Look for a bounce off $565 for a long position, but watch for confirmation of a strong support hold (e.g., candlestick patterns like a bullish engulfing on the 1-hour chart). Potential Exit: If going long, target $570 and then $574. For shorts, breaking below $565 could aim for $560 as an exit target. Risk Management: Keep stop losses tight around $562 to minimize downside risks if the market moves against your position.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
SPY Advanced Analysis by Deno Trading: What’s Next for the S&P 5Let’s dive into the SPY analysis across multiple timeframes, looking for key insights on where the market could be headed. I’ll break it down step by step so it’s easier to follow along. 30-Minute Chart Overview: Current Price Action: We’re sitting around $569, and what’s really interesting is that SPY has been consolidating after hitting a recent high of $570. The market is in a bit of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and we’re right at a pivotal level. Key Resistance: The $570 - $574 zone is a major resistance level. Every time we’ve tested it recently, we’ve seen the market pull back, indicating strong selling pressure. This zone is critical, and we’ll need to break above it with volume to see any further upside. Support: On the downside, the first level of support is around $565, followed by $561, which aligns with the 50-period moving average on the 30-minute chart. If the price breaks below this level, we could see further downside pressure. 4-Hour Chart Insights: Moving Average Support: On the 4-hour chart, we’re seeing strong support at $561, where the 50-period moving average has been acting as a floor for recent price action. As long as SPY holds this level, the bulls still have a chance to regain control. Potential Bullish Scenario: If the price holds $561 and pushes higher, a break above $574 could take us to new highs for the year, potentially testing levels above $580. Bearish Case: If we fail to hold $561, I’d expect a move down towards $552, where the next level of support lies. This level has acted as both resistance and support in the past, making it an important area to watch. Daily Chart Breakdown: Longer-Term Uptrend: The daily chart shows that SPY is still in a broader uptrend, holding above the 200-day moving average, currently sitting around $552. This level has provided a solid base throughout the year, so as long as we remain above it, the long-term trend remains bullish. Current Resistance: The $570 - $574 resistance zone is evident here as well. This level marks the highs from September, and breaking it would signal the market’s willingness to push towards $580 and beyond. Weekly Chart for Perspective: Larger Timeframe: The weekly chart tells a similar story. We’re hovering around $570, right at a major resistance level. The 50-week moving average, sitting around $512, is well below the current price, suggesting we still have a cushion before a significant breakdown would occur. What to Watch: If we break $574 on the weekly chart, we could see a massive bullish continuation. However, failure to break this level could lead to a bigger pullback to $550 or even $530 in the weeks ahead. Conclusion & What I’m Watching: Bullish Breakout Scenario: If SPY breaks above $574 with strong volume, we could see a rally towards $580 or higher. This would confirm that buyers are back in control. Bearish Rejection Scenario: On the flip side, failure to break this resistance could lead to a pullback towards $561 or even $552. If we break below those levels, the bearish case strengthens, and we could see further downside. Final Thoughts: Right now, we’re at a pivotal point. The next few trading sessions will determine whether we’re gearing up for a breakout or a more significant pullback. I’m watching the $570 - $574 level closely for signs of either bullish continuation or rejection.
AMEX:SPY
by Deno_Trading
SPY is about to complete its blow-off topThe current atmosphere is of extreme fear. However VIX has not spiked as much as anticipated and a significant amount of assets are either completely oversold or seemingly getting ready to short squeeze (see GME, DJT, BTC). Looking at the chart, the top also seems incomplete. US elections are forthcoming, and global M2 supply is rising. I cannot currently see the bear case yet, but with the amount of shorts and puts that have accumulated in a panic-driven fashion during last week any upside move would lead to immediate and violent upside continuation. Extreme R:R for those who dare. Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
AMEX:SPYLong
by variable_not_defined
1
SPY 09/13Perfect followthrough, right on track for the blow-off top idea. Stoploss and TP are approximate and not recommendations. Expect volatility. Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
AMEX:SPYLong
by variable_not_defined
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 10-2 CRUSH Pattern UpdateThe SPY is searching and seeking support early in trading today. I believe this attempt to find support will fail, and the price will continue downward, attempting to find lower support. Watch this video as price attempts to identify direction and trend. Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-2 : CRUSH Pattern TodayPlease take a minute to watch this video related to my SPY Cycle Patterns and today's CRUSH pattern. Although I expect the markets to find support over the next 2-3 days and resume the rally higher, today's CRUSH pattern will likely prompt the markets to sell downward, looking for support. I've clearly laid out the rotations I expect for the SPY/QQQ, and Gold/Silver in this video. I've also shown why I believe BTCUSD will struggle to move away from the $57k to $61k level over the next 10 to 15+ days. It is likely trapped in a rolling base/bottom pattern, moving into the Flagging stage of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. The markets are struggling for direction right now, but I believe the outcome for the SPY/QQQ is still bullish and I believe Gold and Silver will make a very big move higher into the end of this year. Bitcoin is another story. It is searching for support and may break downward if this Excess Phase Peak pattern unfolds correctly. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
Q4 Kickoff - US down, VIX Up, Oil Drama, China RipQuick video recap to highlight what's the latest and greatest in the markets. Oct 1 - Happy Q4 US Big Tech in "big red" today US Energy in "big green" today - thanks for a wild bid on USOIL China continues to rip "green" and it's playing catchup quickly US will have to deal with employment news, inflation news, earnings news, all before the US Election and Nov 7 FOMC Rate Decision (expecting another 25 bps cut) Major levels to the downside if there's a US market pullback, FOMC lows, gap fills, and up trendline levels (50 period SMA, 100 period SMA, 200 period SMA) but we'll see Stay frosty out there :) Thanks for watching!!!
Editors' picks
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-1 : Amazing Harami PatternI wanted to create a video highlighting some of the success my SPY Cycle Patterns have had over the past few weeks and months for all of you. Many of you don't comment on my videos but follow my research intently. I see my videos getting 250 to 400+ views daily - so I know many of you are seeing my content. And that makes me happy because I'm doing this to help you become a better, more skilled trader. Yet, after the last few days of price rotation, and particularly today's big news day, I'm absolutely amazed that if the SPY closes above 750.45, we may end up with a true Harami-Inside price pattern. I want all of you to consider something for just a few minutes. My SPY Cycle Patterns are built on Fibonacci and GANN technology, which attempts to map out price patterns in a matrix. From this matrix, I can develop complex lookup engines (an inference engine) that attempt to map the current price pattern with known data from the matrix. By doing this, I can map out any construct or type of price action/pattern that happens within price—now, in the past, or in the future. And, with my complex inference engine, I can map the Fibonacci/GANN structures nearly forever into the future. For example, here are the SPY Price Patterns for the first two weeks in November 2036... 11/1/2036 Top/Resistance 11/2/2036 GAP Potential 11/3/2036 GAP-Reversal 11/4/2036 GAP/BreakAway 11/5/2036 Break-Away 11/6/2036 Carryover 11/7/2036 Inside-Breakaway 11/8/2036 Break-Away 11/9/2036 WeekendGap/WeekdayFlat 11/10/2036 GapUp-Lower 11/11/2036 GAP/BreakAway 11/12/2036 Harami-Inside 11/13/2036 CRUSH 11/14/2036 GAP Potential 11/15/2036 Top/Resistance21 What amazes me is that these patterns are predicted more than 3 to 5+ years before the actual price moves. Like today's Harami pattern, I'm amazed that my SPY Cycle patterns could attempt to accurately predict a Harami-Inside price pattern 3+ years in advance of it happening. I don't know anyone on the planet who can do this research and attempt to accurately map out future price trends/moves/setups like this. Watch this video and see why learning to use my SPY Cycle Patterns is absolutely incredible. I'm going to work on a QQQ version next. Let's go get some profits together. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Bear or Bull? We got bothAMEX:SPY 📊 AMEX:SPY Options Range: $572 to $574.73 📜 $574 CALL 10/18 Entry: 15-30 min CLOSE ABOVE $574.73 Target: $578 📜 $574 PUT 10/18 Entry: Rejection and 15-30 min CLOSE BELOW $574.73 Target: $572, Trend support (Currently at $571) A rare occurrence of a green September. We expect extremely high volatility over the next 4-6 weeks, especially considering the election and the polarizing nature of the candidates. We could see heavy volatility within the semiconductor space. A 10-15% pullback in semiconductors would also bring down the major indices as they are a heavy component. We have seen how fragile this market is (8/5/24). Last week, our call went for 60%+. This week, let's see.
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois