VDY Seems to be uselessVDY seems to heavily outperform spy, and thus not be a useful tool. even with the tax rebate
SPY trade ideas
Vol expansion signaling the top is near, but $HYG disagreesThrough my previous "big picture" posts about VIX/VVIX and VIX as well as high yield corporate bonds ( AMEX:HYG or AMEX:JNK respectively) I have been maintaining we're in that end stage of a bull market, but for now to "keep buying the dip."
Things are getting a little shakier lately, but I still feel like new highs can be made based solely on how AMEX:HYG is still behaving.
We have higher lows and lower highs starting on VIX, which is usually a good indicator we're near the cycle top. AMEX:HYG is not far off setting a new high from this cycle, though. Highest it's been since the big sell off started in 2022. AMEX:HYG never recovered its 2021 levels.
So, solely based on past performance of how AMEX:HYG often sets lower highs preceding a longer term bear market in equities, I'm going to stick my neck out and say despite the economic data supporting slowing and VIX starting to set alarm bells in its pattern, we're not quite yet to the top.
Equities kind of have the appearance of having done a double top and might continue down according to how some interpret candlestick patterns, but the unusual strength of AMEX:HYG gives me pause and say "maybe buy the dip isn't dead just yet."
Make no mistake, though, we are certainly much closer to a market cycle top than we are the bottom. And tech has been getting battered pretty solidly. I just think the price action of the main indices themselves may yet set new highs before we do finally enter a longer term bear market. It absolutely is time to be on your toes. Things are shifting underneath us.
But my bold prediction is that buy the dip for AMEX:SPY SP:SPX isn't dead just yet. Bulls may have another rally or two left in them to hit another all time high before bears totally take over. I do think some larger players have already begun shifting out of equities and into treasuries, once that settles down a little, we'll see stocks make maybe one or two more big pushes, take a look at what AMEX:HYG is doing during that time and go from there.
With that said, I have no prediction for how far and deep the current dip will go. September has a history of being one of the uglier months of the year. I had thought that yesterday might be the low of the current dip with AMEX:HYG showing two decent days of bullish divergence, but then we got smacked lower still today after a rebound from yesterday's lows.
The market has a way of humbling you for sure! But if you're just long term long $SPY/ SP:SPX , I say stay there for now. I think we might have some more highs to set yet--but not many more before a big drawdown does happen.
SPY H&S correction.Long!
H&S with a reverse shoulder down to the trendline then LONG to All time highs.
SPY 30-Minute Chart Analysis: Bearish Channel FormingLooking at the SPY 30-minute chart, the price is clearly in a bearish channel, with each rally getting rejected and lower lows being made consistently. Let me walk you through the key details.
What’s Happening:
Downward Channel: The price is following a downward-sloping channel, which began forming at the peak near $563. Since then, the price has been steadily declining, with lower highs and lower lows, bouncing off the upper and lower trendlines.
Resistance at $546.70: There was a strong rejection from the $546.70 level, further confirming this area as a key resistance. Every time the price approaches this level, sellers step in aggressively.
Key Support at $539.60: We’re currently hovering just above this level. If we break through $539.60, the next key support zone lies around $528.44, which could be the next target for sellers.
What I Expect:
Bearish Continuation: Given the strength of the downward channel, I’m expecting more downside. If $539.60 fails to hold, we could see a further drop towards the $528.44 level.
Possible Bounce: On the other hand, if the price finds support around $539.60, we might see a short-term bounce back toward the upper trendline, around $546.70, before more selling pressure sets in.
Final Thoughts:
Right now, SPY is clearly in a downtrend, and I’m watching the $539.60 level closely. A break below it could open the door for further declines, but a bounce from here could present a short-term trading opportunity. Stay cautious as the bearish momentum continues!
SPY 5-Minute Chart Analysis Targeting Opening Range BreakoutLooking at the SPY 5-minute chart, we’re seeing some clear bearish signals after what seemed like a potential recovery. Let me walk you through the main things that stand out.
What I’m Seeing:
Resistance at $554.41: The price reached a high of $554.41 but failed to hold, showing clear rejection at this level. This resistance has become a key point, as each attempt to break above it has been met with selling pressure.
Drop to $541.77: We’re now seeing a sharp decline, with the price currently sitting around $541.77. This steep drop indicates that the sellers have firmly taken control.
Failed Support at $548: Earlier, $548 was providing some support, but once that level broke, it led to a cascade of selling down to the $541 - $542 zone.
What I Expect:
Further Downside: Given the current momentum, I wouldn’t be surprised if we test the $540.97 level soon. If this level breaks, we could see a deeper drop, potentially targeting the $540 psychological level or even lower.
Potential Bounce: If buyers step in around this $541 zone, we might see a short-term bounce. But unless we reclaim $548, I’m not convinced that a reversal is coming.
My Takeaway: Right now, the price action is heavily favouring the bears. The failed break above $554 and the sharp drop tell me to stay cautious. If I were trading, I’d lean towards short positions unless we see a strong reversal above $548.
Let’s see how it unfolds!
SPY is forming a strong downward trendSPY is forming clear downward trend showing more selling to come.
Sold off with momentum and increasing volume indicating strength in the move
We are in the beginning of September which is normally a bad month
We should expect selling to continue
SPY is in the midst of a sell off. Best right now to wait for signs that selling has slowed and starting to reverse course before entering any bullish positions.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-6 : Blended Top/Flat-DownHappy Friday.
I believe today's pattern is a blend of yesterday's Top-Resistance and today's Flat-Down pattern.
Because of this belief, I think we will see a moderate rally in early trading leading to a peak in price, then followed by a moderate flat-down type of price trend.
This week has proven to be a bit more volatile than I expected, but it has not changed my expectations much in terms of where I believe the markets are headed over the next 90+ days.
Price is dynamic and reflects not only fundamental economic expectations but also future performance expectations.
This pullback in price is somewhat healthy (closing the gap) on the SPY chart to clear the way for further upward trending.
Let's see how things play out today.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Main Focus List REview 9-6-24 RTHgoing over our Main focus list RTH only looking for setups and potential trades for swings. dont be lazy do all your work every day. the price for success needs to be paid every day and that price changes daily. make sure you're putting in the work. you have to love the Pain. smile at the Pain. Live in the Pain. that's the formula for growth and ultimately success.
$SPY Tomorrow's Trading Range in SPY 9.6.24 All right, guys, tomorrow we have the unemployment rate in premarket, as well as the hourly wages report. As of now, we're right in the gap that opened when the consumer spending data was released last month, sitting at the 50-day moving average . Momentum from premarket reports will be huge.
Directly above us, we have the 35 EMA, which has been resistance for the entire week—that's the red line just above where we opened. If we get above that, the first level of resistance is around 554, which we've tested twice earlier this week. The top of the implied move is at 556, with Monday's contract at 558, and at the very top of the implied move for the next two days, we have the 30-minute 200 average. We’re on this timeframe, so consider that as a key resistance point.
At the very top, completely above our trading range for tomorrow, is the gap we started the week with, which pushed us away from all-time highs. To the downside, we have the one-hour 200 moving average, which we bounced on today. Beneath that lies the rest of the consumer spending gap. The bottom of the implied move for tomorrow is 543, and for Monday’s contract, it's 541. Underneath all of that, we have the four-hour moving average.
Let me know how you plan on playing this. Good luck, and see you guys on Sunday night.
Spy Targets is Adam & Eve Double Top StandsHi Traders,
Man this market has been crazy... I haven't had a good track record lately but always remember I do this for fun... and we are human and can't get them all right. I try many different things so anyone who says oh thats stupid or you got it wrong..sure... but many I did get right as well.
Well this newest one is my down targets if employment data comes in bad tomorrow...mean if it doesn't hit projections... Last month this data was weak and the market sold off with the biggest vix launch for a long time. I think this market needs to come down... we are really high and bad data could send us on our way...and make the fed do a .5 cut instead of a .25. That also means a possible recession is on the way unfortunately which if you factor our companies ATH profits and stocks.. reality for most people isn't as rosy. Prices are high and wages are low if you can find or keep a job. Calling a top...is never easy...and maybe this isn't a top..or a local temp top..before we move higher one more time after a nice dip... Either way end game is getting close. I don't like how this market is reacting so I am mostly in cash.
Flash Crash to $490?War with Iran and market finally pricing in low growth can have a nice flash effect to $490.
I also think the higher probability trade would be a dead cat bounce or reversal, as peak fear enters.
SPY recent rally failed to make new highsLooking back at the last two major rallies we see that the latest one has not broken above to new highs. Raises concerns of longer term rallies less likely to happen
SPY is forming double top reversal pattern
Longer term future rallies called into question
More defensive sectors are experiencing rallies over the past year (XLU for example)
Defensive sector long term rallies shows rotational shift from risk assets (tech) to safer assets (utilities, healthcare, gold)
Seeing signs of late cycle investing
2025 could be a rough year for SPY and especially tech
Bullish purchases should be done with caution
Reversal H&S could break the 565The upside-down H&S warrants a continued push higher. Technically based it is waiting on more news to confirm upside.
Double-Top In PlayAs expected, SPY double-top looks to be playing out. I don't expect us to drop much lower than the pink ascending trendline. Maybe we'll touch that 200 dma before our full send. Let me remind you that the pink ascending tl is the neckline of a large cup and handle pattern on the bi-weekly, the target of which remains 650-700. This is still in play on the longer timeframe and as long as we don't break below the pink tl with confirmation on the weekly, I will start to buy back at or around the pink tl and down to the 200 dma. Batting 1000% thus far and hoping to keep it perfect.
Oops SPY Bear dance might have just begun.We are seeing some really impulsive moves coming up and at this point it really important to trade with the trend. A complete analysis coming in soon.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-5 : Top-Resistance PatternToday's Top Resistance pattern should reflect a moderate price rally, leading to a peak in price, then followed by a roll-over in price before the close of trading today.
Follow my research. Remember we are using my SPY cycle patterns to help guide our future and current trades related to price action.
These patterns are not 100% accurate all the time - but I find them very helpful in understanding how to prepare/trade related to potential future price swings.
Again, outside news events, central banks/governments, wars and other massive events can disrupt these patterns for 3 to 10+ days. But, price always seems to return to the patterns over time. These disruptions are temporary.
Get ready for next week's big rally phase.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
spy on a pullbackI see 543.60 coming up to the anchored vwap and then possibly a push up. If it continues down look out to the golden pocket seen on the chart.
$SPY 50DMA is the level we're trying to holdThe 50Day MA is the level we are trying to hold. We saw a bounce there to end the day yesterday, and a bounce there today when we dropped at open. The momentum there is not strong, look at the angle of the 50DMA. Sideways here as we try to defend it??
09/03 SPY ATR and levels. ATR Is up to 8.26 a significant increase over the month percentage wise.
Waiting until after 10am for anything.
Jolts report will move the needle.
We seem to be a bit sideways before open. Makes me think we'll gap up into the report, and if it's good, pull back hard, and then go higher.
Key Regions defined by MenthorQ Pro to watch todayGamma flow and call/put wall data from the amazing guys at MenthorQ
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-4 : CRUSH Blends Into Rev-RallyYesterday's price move was clearly a CRUSH pattern I expected on Monday. Because of the holiday trading schedule this week, I believe the CRUSH pattern blended into Tuesday's trading - resulting in today's pattern being a blend of the Rev-Rally pattern on Tuesday and the Up-Down-Up pattern for Wednesday.
Overall, I believe the CRUSH pattern removed a lot of downward price pressure and set the markets up for a bigger upward move starting on September 9-11.
At this point, I believe the US markets will attempt to find a base/support and transition into the end of this week by "looking for support—then rallying away from support."
So, I expect the US markets to find a critical support level today or tomorrow, then begin to form a base and rally away from that support level.
Let's play what is in front of us on the charts and Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY September 4, 2024AMEX:SPY September 4, 2024
15 Minutes
AMEX:SPY opened gap down.
Since close was not good in that bar buy was not possible.
I did not short for the day.
I need AMEX:SPY below moving averages 9,21 to short.
That came only around 556 levels with 559 as SL.
So, i was not sure of R:R hence no short.
Now for the day the rise from 518 to 564 has 546 -547 as 38.2% retracement.
It is also 200 averages in 60 minutes.
So, 546-548 is the next target.
Already achieved 549.5 yesterday.
Hence for the fall 564.2 to 549.5 a retrace around 556 - 558 will be a good placed to short today.
Having seen multiple tops near 564 levels i will go long only above 565 levels.
No long today as AMEX:SPY below all moving averages in 15 minutes.
$SPY - Say it isn't soAMEX:SPY We could be looking at a double top. I hope it doesn’t turn into a full-blown double top and reverses before breaking below the confirmation point.
A complete double top would be disastrous, and I’ll post the drop target when we cross that bridge. Let’s hope, for the market's sake, that it isn’t one of them.
Watch the $544 critical support area for a reversal. If it fails, we’re looking at the $523 to $512 area.
As always, I share my opinions and trades. I’m not suggesting anyone follow my trades. You do you.
