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What To Expect After The Fed rate Cut: 9-18-2024 (Fed Day)This video is really designed to teach you some basics about Fibonacci Price Theory (FPT) Analysis. I wanted to show you how I see the charts using FPT and why, sometimes, I might be seeing things differently than you do on the charts. In my world, there are simple constructs that are evident on every chart. Supply & Demand zones, trending/flagging, and most importantly Fibonacci Price Theory constructs. Fibonacci Price Theory is the basis of all my analysis. It is the ground-level structure I look for in price on all charts. Then, I move to more advanced indicators and other analysis types to develop a Success/Failure outcome (trend/trade expectation). What I do is not hard to understand - it just takes practice. Fibonacci & Gann techniques are infinitely adaptable to any type of price action. I use another technique I call the Tesla Price Amplitude Arcs which often help me identify where/when price events may happen - but that is for another video (maybe). Ultimately, it comes down to understanding the structure and intent of price action (either success or failure) and how to position your trades for that success or failure of any price event. There are really two types of traders: trend traders and counter-trend traders. Trend traders try to catch the explosive price moves as trend events. Counter-trend traders try to catch major reversal levels in price and try to profit from counter-trend price moves (reversals/reversions). Using FPT, you can learn to execute both type of trading styles and improve your ability to see the market trends/setups more clearly. I hope this video helps you learn to become a better trader and helps you understand my Plan Your Trade videos more clearly. At least you'll be able to understand how I see charts and what drives much of my thinking related to chart. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
7
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-18 : Gap Potential & Fed DayThis video pretty much covers everything I've been telling all of you over the past 5+ days. Yes, I'm planning on waiting out the consolidation/early trading today and waiting through the Fed decision. There is no reason to jump in front of a moving train attempting to change its direction or speed. You just get run over and beat up. So, I'm going to take a break this morning, watching the markets and waiting for the Fed rate decision. While I did look at some data points this morning, the one thing that caught my attention was the Mortgage Refinance Index. That index has jumped more than 45% over the past 12-16+ months while mortgage rates are still above 6%. I believe this is an indication that ARM borrowers are under some pressure now (after roughly 36 months) to refinance and are dealing with higher rates. 2024-3 = 2021. Those hot to buy anything after the COVID pandemic may have signed into ARM loans with a 3-year rate guarantee - which may now be rolling into fully adjustable rate loans. That would push the refinance index higher as these homeowners attempt to wiggle their way into something more realistic than the 6.5 to 7.5% rates on their ARMs now. In my opinion, this is the only thing that may prompt the Fed to lower rates a bit - the pressure on a small segment of home owners in ARM loans that need some relief. We'll just have to wait and see what happens today. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
2
$SPY September 18, 2024AMEX:SPY September 18, 2024 15 Minutes AMEX:SPY managed to make an ATH at 566.57. Now for the rise 539.95 to 566.57 it is important to hold 560. Below that weakness can be seen for a target 554 +-1 levels. So shorting is not worth. If AMEX:SPY manages to hold 563-566 levels, we can see 574 +- as a target for the longs. A retracement is on cards due to oscillator divergence. or a sideways moment between 560-566 levels. On a daily level, if AMEX:SPY consolidated between 556-566 levels i expect 574 as initial target. Again. Not the time for shorts for me.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RiderTrader
9
Elliott Wave View on S&P 500 ETF (SPY) New All-Time High SuggestShort term Elliott Wave view on S&P 500 ETF (SPY) suggests that cycle from 8.5.2024 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 564.2 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 539.44. The ETF has extended to new all-time high in wave (3). The internal subdivision of wave (3) takes the form of another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 549.34 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 539.96. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 556.85 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 552.74. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 566.58 which completed wave 1 in higher degree. Pullback in wave 2 is in progress to correct cycle from 9.7.2024 low with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 560.79. Expect wave ((b)) to fail below 566.58 for another leg lower in wave ((c)) to complete wave 2. Afterwards, the ETF should then resume higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 537.86 low stays intact, expect pullback to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
AMEX:SPY
by Elliottwave-Forecast
A+ Trade Set ups All From Respecting Simple Levels! We identify high-quality trade opportunities by focusing on key support and resistance levels. By respecting these fundamental price points, traders can enhance their decision-making process. Support levels act as a floor where buying interest tends to emerge, while resistance levels serve as a ceiling where selling pressure usually mounts. Recognizing and adhering to these simple levels helps traders pinpoint entry and exit points more effectively, increasing the probability of successful trades and improving overall trading performance. AMEX:SPY
Editors' picks
AMEX:SPYEducation
by ThePrintingRoom
4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 9-17: Excess Phase Peak BreakThis short video explains why it is so important to often wait for the markets to show you what it really wants to do - not trying to force a trade when the markets are undecided. Many traders are likely short right now - expecting a top to setup in the markets ahead of the Fed rate decision. My research suggests a top would likely form because of the dual Excess Phase Peak patterns on the charts as well. But, the RSP rally to new ATHs over the past 3+ days gave me reason to PAUSE and really consider the potential that price may rally and break away from the Excess Phase Peak setups. Well, today we have a new ATH in the SPY. We need to wait till the end of the day to see if price gets rejected at these new ATH levels - but this is a BREAK of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. Over the past 10+ days, I've continued to share why these Excess Phase Peak patterns are one of the core constructs of price action. They happen all the time (probably 60% of all trading through any year is an Excess Phase Peak pattern). There are five constructs to the pattern. They can be Bullish or Bearish in structure. At any time after the initial PEAK/TROUGH is set, they can INVALIDATE. So, we have to stay keenly aware of when/how they can invalidate. This video will show you multiple examples of Excess Phase Peak patterns and how to use them. Get ready, we may be at the start of a moderate melt-up for the SPY targeting 585-595 or higher. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
5
SPY/QQ Plan Your Trade For 9-17 : Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the markets will melt upward in early trading, finding resistance, then rolling over into a moderate downtrend. A top pattern is very similar to a reversal pattern. Where price moves higher, finds a key resistance area, tops, and then rolls downward away from the resistance area. In today's video, I take a quick look at RSP, the equal-weighted S&P500 ETF, where price levels have already moved to new ATHs. And this may be very important for all traders to consider. If the equal-weighted S&P ETF is moving to new all-time highs right now, while the QQQ and SPY struggle within the Excess Phase Peak patterns, it may be just a matter of time before the SPY invalidates the Excess Phase Peak pattern and moves to new ATHs as well. The QQQ may be a different story as that chart still shows quite a bit of upper price range before invalidating any of the Excess Phase Peak patterns. Therefore, I suggest traders stay very cautious today and tomorrow as we see how things play out. Right now, I would suggest the topping/peak pattern has about a 60% probability of playing out successfully today. Those ATHs in the RSP are more indicative of a moderate melt upward instead of a rolling top pattern - at least right now. Gold and Silver will pause a bit ahead of the Fed rate decision. All markets are in a "wait and see mode" ahead of the Fed. This is another reason why you should not be overly aggressive in your trading right now. Bitcoin is attempting to FLAG again - moving into a tighter, more consolidated price range just below $60k. I still believe an explosive upward price trend is building for BTCUSD. I believe we will see an explosive upward price trend setting up just before the elections across the SPY/QQQ and other markets as well - we have to get through the next 45 days of consolidation and uncertainty ahead of the elections. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
SPY Technical Analysis for Tomorrow (Sept 17, 2024)SPY is currently trading around $563.10 and is consolidating near a key resistance level of $564.78. Here’s a detailed analysis: 1. Support and Resistance Levels: Immediate Resistance: The $564.78 level is a critical resistance point. It aligns with previous rejections, so breaking above it with high volume could signal a potential upward move toward the next target of $567.50. Support Levels: If SPY fails to break above resistance, the first support is at $562.56. Below that, the key support levels are: $556.46 (around the 50-period MA on the 1-hour chart). $552.72 (another significant support as shown on the Volume Profile). $540.11 (a major demand zone). 2. Volume Profile: The Volume Profile suggests that $556.46 is an area of high interest for buyers, making it a critical support level if SPY faces selling pressure. The red and blue zones on the right-hand side show high liquidity zones where price is likely to react (either with consolidation or a strong bounce). 3. Moving Averages: The short-term moving average (green line) is trending upwards, reflecting positive short-term momentum. This aligns with the recent bullish price movement. The longer-term moving average (purple line, likely the 200-period MA) is further below the current price, indicating that the broader trend remains bullish. 4. Price Action and Momentum: SPY is in an uptrend, having recovered strongly from the lows around $540.11 earlier this month. The current consolidation below $564.78 indicates indecision, and tomorrow’s move will likely depend on whether SPY can break above this resistance. If it does, the next target could be the $570 psychological level, but if rejected, expect a pullback toward $556.46 or $552.72. 5. Prediction for Tomorrow: Bullish Scenario: If SPY breaks above $564.78 with strong volume, it could trigger a rally towards $567.50 and potentially higher toward $570. Bearish Scenario: If SPY gets rejected at this resistance, a pullback towards $556.46 or $552.72 is possible. Watch how SPY reacts at those support levels for potential buying opportunities.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBear-Insights
Fed Rate Cut Analysis $Spy Stocks usually fall ~15% within 12 months following the 1st cut if there is a recession. If no recession, stocks rise by >10%. The volatility that dominated markets in the early part of the month sharply reversed in the past week, driven by growing expectations of interest rate cuts that have bolstered investor risk appetite. The latest batch of inflation statistics for August have given the green light for the Federal Reserve to proceed with an interest rate cut, which is highly likely to occur on Sept. 18. The remaining question concerns the size of the cut — whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points — though market consensus and recent comments from Fed officials suggest the more conservative 25 basis points is the likely scenario. Some consolidation around the current levels could not be ruled out before the Fed’s interest-rate announcement, scheduled for Wednesday. While some call for broadening of the market rally, with tech stocks likely to add on to their gains, others draw cues from history, which shows that the market typically collapses after a rate cut. Regional manufacturing activity data could also impact the market direction of the day.
AMEX:SPYShort
by willtradesdaily
SPY The Final PushMarkets have been extremely volatile this summer with the anticipation of a rate cut swiftly approaching in September. Futures markets are currently predicting a 99% probability of a cut in September. Historically, markets do not tend to crash during election years, however the combination of rate cuts, global tensions, inflation, employment, and many more factors may change the outcome of what is to come. At the moment, the markets have made a large move to the downside into a previous support zone. Additionally, I am seeing absorption on the CVD, potentially suggestion weak hands are selling into the hands of the bigger players. There could be some room for the market to get a bounce here. We do have several gaps left behind us on the way up where major liquidity is sitting. An SFP swing failure pattern of the all time high, would be a critical area if we make it that far. A bounce here may provide us some temporary upside before the eventual selling of the news of rate cuts. I am looking to hedge myself against a larger drop going into September. Only time will tell, Good luck!
AMEX:SPYShort
by afurs1
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-16 : Gap Reversal PatternMy honest opinion related to the next 2~3 trading days is - go take a few days off and wait out the markets for the next 48+ hours. I don't believe there will be much in terms of opportunity over the next 48-72 hours as price is likely to chop around near the top of the current FLAG. The real opportunity comes late Wednesday and into Thursday/Friday as price should attempt to break downward (if my analysis is correct) and move into a solid 5-7+ days of downward price momentum. What I see happening over the next 48-72 hours is Sideways Chop. Not fun for the average trader and really not something you can make a lot of money trading unless you are very skilled at catching short-term price rotation with options. Overall, the next 48+ hours should be about observation - watching price attempt to stall, break away from this FLAG, and setting up for the bigger move near the 19th & 20th of September. I'm not telling you how or what to trade. I'm just saying I believe the next 48-72 hours will be very difficult for average traders. OK. Happy Monday. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
8
S&P bulls regain control, aiming for the new highAfter the major sell-off in the first week of September, the market has made a U-turn, rebounding to its previous highs. This outcome was anticipated as highly likely in my last review, though, as is often the case, the market exceeded boldest expectations. Currently, we have confirmed a weekly higher low, which provides a solid foundation for the continuation of the uptrend. It’s also worth noting that the rally is being driven by risk-on assets like XLK and XLY, reflecting growing investor confidence. The mid- and long-term outlook remains bullish, though heightened volatility is expected as we approach the US elections. Important levels: 539.4 - major weekly low. Bulls must protect this level to keep uptrend intact 565.2 – major monthly high. There might be some resistance at this level. Bulls must clear it for uptrend continuation. FOMC meeting is set for Wednesday but it is not expected to bring big surprises.
AMEX:SPYLong
by hermes_trisme
EASY PLAYS $SPY 9/16- 9/20 - Very High chance that price will make it to ATH (All time Highs) Next week. Price action has been strong and bullish. - Remember, In order for a valid breakout to be confirmed we need a clear break and retest or a strong close above $565.16. - Price can also reject from all time highs which is also possible as we can see the buying volume has been dying down and we are falling into a divergence. - With these TWO scenarios given we must analyze price action and adapt to the markets as price goes. - To keep it simple Puts below $560.50 and calls above $565.26 WITH 1-2 CANDLE STICK CONFIRMATIONS ON AT LEAST 15m
AMEX:SPYLong
by Ubaidy100
Hey SPY lovers, look at all that green! Do you believe me now?We are undoubtedly in a scenario where the price is showing a lot of strength. As we can see, the price previously attempted to break all-time highs but encountered an institutional liquidity block, trying twice and creating a double top before making a pullback for days ! This second attempt to break the all-time high will be very important because, after the pullback, we were able to forecast the limit where the price would bounce back. Just one candle with a lot of volume and buying pressure was enough to realize that the price would reverse at $544. If you've been following this analysis for weeks or months, you'll notice that everything is playing out according to our price action and institutional analysis. Now, we just need to wait for that ATH, and I think this time will be different, especially considering that we're in election months, and the current president's political party wants the economy to look strong before the elections. So, we can expect a bull run from now until November. Thank you for supporting my analysis, and if you've benefited from it and made profits, congratulations, I'm happy for you. Best regards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
$SPY - a 100% win at the top of the implied move on Friday"Last Friday, we opened with a gap up in SPY, and from there, we pushed up into the gap created on the first trading day of September. Within that gap, we reached the top of the implied move at 563, which acted as resistance. After reaching that level, we pulled back slightly but still closed within the implied move and without closing out the gap from the first week of September. If you sold bear call spreads at the top of the implied move on Friday when we hit that level, those positions would have closed up 100%. So, if you tuned in to last Friday's video and took this trade—congratulations! Currently, we are in the bear gap that opened at the beginning of September, which sits just beneath the bear gap created after reaching all-time highs. We're also in overbought territory here."
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading