Market BreadthMarkets are still in 'Bull' mode going into the 4th. Keeping a eye on the 9-EMA which I use as a trailing stop on my long positions. Not likely to pick up any new positions for now.
SPY trade ideas
SPY Breaks Out of Gamma Box! Will It a Trend Day or Fade Setup?SPY Breaks Out of Gamma Box! Will IT Trigger a Trend Day or Fade Setup? 🚀📉
🔍 Chart Overview
* Timeframes: 1H (GEX + key zones), 15M (Price action + SMC).
* Price: $601.65 at close.
* SPY broke above 600, a key GEX resistance and call wall area, and is pushing into a zone with less options resistance.
📊 GEX + Options Sentiment
* 601–602 Zone: Highest positive NET GEX, aligned with CALL wall and resistance—where market makers may start to hedge against upside.
* 604–606: Next upside liquidity zone; low GEX, meaning little dealer resistance = gamma vacuum potential.
* IVR: 21.2 (elevated slightly).
* Put Positioning: 78.2% heavy skew—market still defensively positioned.
* GEX Shift: Bullish; breakout above 599–600 flips structure toward 604 as target.
📐 Smart Money Concepts (15M Chart)
* CHoCH → BOS Confirmed: Trend structure flipped bullish today.
* SPY rallied off demand at 591.90 (old support/OB) with increasing volume.
* Currently tapping into minor supply zone (purple box) at 601.5–602.
📈 Key Technical Levels
* Support:
* 599.00 (GEX flip zone)
* 596.41 (FVG support)
* 594.28 (OB + FVG confluence)
* Resistance:
* 602.00 (GEX wall + supply)
* 604.85 (GEX extension zone)
📌 Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Play (Momentum Breakout)
* Entry: Above 602.20 (confirm breakout of supply)
* Targets: 604.50 → 606.00
* Stop: Below 600.40
* Confluence: Gamma vacuum + weak resistance = ideal for calls if IV remains controlled.
🔴 Bearish Play (Fade from GEX Wall)
* Entry: Rejects 602 with wicks + high volume reversal
* Targets: 599.50 → 597.00 → 594.50
* Stop: Above 602.50
* Confluence: Heavy puts suggest rally could be faded unless institutions step in.
💡 Game Plan
* Watch 602 rejection or acceptance—this will likely decide the rest of the week's direction.
* If accepted, it's likely a gamma squeeze to 604–606.
* If rejected, SPY may dip back to 599–597 to retest bullish structure.
🎯 Options Strategy
* Bullish: Weekly 602C or 604C if breakout confirmed.
* Bearish: 600P for fade/rejection plays. Higher risk due to squeeze potential—tight stops.
🧠 Final Thoughts
SPY is at a pivotal level. The breakout from 599 suggests bulls in control, but we're now at Gamma resistance. Keep tight risk if playing calls above 602. The upside is open—but only if dealers lose control.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 Markets Eye Powell Testimony & Consumer Confidence
Today brings a double dose of market-moving data: the June Consumer Confidence Index and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress. These will be key indicators of household sentiment and potential shifts in Fed rate guidance
🛢️ Oil Volatility Persists on Middle East Strain
Oil prices briefly spiked after U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, prompting fears of supply disruptions. However, prices have since dipped as ceasefire hopes emerge. Investors remain cautious on energy headwinds
💱 Dollar Retraces on Safe-Haven Rotation
The dollar softened after peaking as geopolitical tensions eased slightly. Still, it remains sensitive to Powell’s tone and confidence data, which could reintroduce volatility
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Tuesday, June 24:
10:00 AM ET – Conference Board Consumer Confidence (June)
Monitors household optimism; a rebound could support consumer spending and equities.
10:00 AM ET – Fed Chair Powell Testimony Begins
Powell appears before the House Financial Services Committee. Market focus: inflation outlook, tariffs, and potential timing for rate cuts.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #Fed #trade #energy #technicalanalysis
June 27th, 2025 - Morning BriefFriday, June 27, 2025. Markets are on the edge, and if you thought summer would bring calm, think again. Today’s script is pure adrenaline.
Overnight, the U.S. and China finally inked a trade deal that actually matters: tariffs are coming down, and rare earths are flowing again. Tech and manufacturing stocks are already celebrating, with SP:SPX and CME_MINI:NQ1! futures inching toward fresh record highs. NASDAQ:NVDA is still the market’s favorite lottery ticket, hitting another all-time high. Meanwhile, NYSE:NKE just spiked 10% premarket after beating earnings. Never mind the $1 billion tariff punch, they’ll “manage it.” Sure.
But the real show is the May PCE inflation data dropping this morning. The Fed’s favorite gauge is expected to tick up to 2.3% year-over-year, with core PCE at 2.6%. If the numbers surprise, brace for whiplash in rates and risk assets. GDP’s third estimate confirmed a -0.5% contraction in Q1, so the “soft landing” crowd is sweating. Jobless claims and new home sales hit at 10:00 AM ET. Expect every algo on the Street to be watching.
Trump is making noise about firing Powell before 2026, which has traders betting on earlier rate cuts. If you’re looking for stability, you’re in the wrong casino.
Here’s where things stand:
- OANDA:XAUUSD : $3,280–$3,334/oz (slipping as risk appetite returns)
- BLACKBULL:WTI : $65.64–$65.82/barrel (steady, but one headline away from chaos)
- BINANCE:BTCUSDT : $107,215–$107,477 (down, but still a six-figure fever dream)
- CME_MINI:ES1! : Hovering just below the 6,144 record
Today’s takeaway: The market’s running on hope, caffeine, and denial. Stay sharp, one bad print and the rally could turn into a stampede for the exits. Welcome to the volatility vortex.
Been building something for US swing traders — if you’re one, I’d really appreciate your feedback. Free to test, link in Bio
SPY Rejected at Gamma Wall–Watch $610 Breakdown or $615 Reclaim🧠 GEX-Based Options Sentiment:
SPY closed Friday with a rejection off the Highest Positive Net GEX / Gamma Wall at $615, with sellers defending the upper structure near the 2nd Call Wall at $620.
Support now lies in the $608–$604 range, with $605.54 and $604.45 aligning with GEX magnets and prior structure. Below that, there’s a gap to the HVL zone near $599, and the gamma floor starts deep around $591, which is also defended by the 2nd and 3rd PUT Walls.
Implied Volatility Rank is 12.2, with IVX below average. This implies premium selling could be dominant unless we break key levels. Meanwhile, PUT flow dominates at 31.9%, showing a clear defensive posture by institutions.
🔧 Options Trade Setup (for Monday–Wednesday):
Bearish Setup:
If SPY confirms under $610, especially during the first hour Monday, it could trigger a fade toward $605 or even $599 HVL.
Consider a PUT debit spread like 610p/600p (Jul 3).
Stop out if price reclaims $613.50–$615 cleanly.
Bullish Setup:
If SPY holds $610 and reclaims $615 with force, it can squeeze into the GEX void toward $620–$622.
Consider a CALL debit spread like 615c/620c (Jul 3).
Stop if price breaks back under $610 with volume.
📉 Intraday Technical Breakdown (1H Chart):
We now have back-to-back CHoCHs printed below rising wedge structure, followed by a failed retest at the top. This is a textbook sign of exhaustion. The final BOS and CHoCH from Friday confirmed that buyers lost short-term control.
The current structure is rolling over with lower highs, and SPY is now trading inside a descending micro-channel after rejection at $615.
Volume picked up on the Thursday/Friday rejection, which adds weight to the downside scenario unless we open strong Monday.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
$617.00 – Upper Gamma ceiling
$615.00 – Gamma Wall & recent supply zone
$613.50 – Mid-level rejection pivot
$610.00 – Structure support now under threat
$608.48 – Intraday gamma magnet
$605.54 / $604.45 – Strong confluence support zone
$599.49 – HVL target zone
$591.90 – Gamma floor if broader selloff triggers
✅ Thoughts and Monday Game Plan:
SPY looks vulnerable under $610 — this is the most important level to watch. If that breaks and holds below in the first 30–60 minutes, we likely fade to $605 or lower.
The ideal trade setup would be to short the retest of $610 from below, or buy PUTs on confirmed weakness into the gamma air pocket. Alternatively, wait for a high-volume reclaim of $615 to trade with the bulls, but until then, the path of least resistance is down.
Macro catalysts are light, but pre-holiday positioning could bring volatility — stay nimble.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always use proper risk management and trade with a plan.
SPY . Market Corrections IncomingHey Guys it's been a long time but I'm going to be more consistent in publishing more. The S&P 500 has hit a level of resistance 4 times on the daily chart. which is very very telling. Yes I understand we have news and war being a major catalyst in the stock market rallying a lot lately but this is only temporary. This previous witching was last Friday if you weren't aware which also caused the small pull back. So for further bullishness to continue let's look at the earnings for the magnificent 7 and the rest of the tech sector. More war means more money for the market . we have the next witching in September . and so here are my projections. We take a step higher in July as we go into the peak of SOLAR Maximum . please do your research. and then after that by September we go into pull season . Happy trading
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 30 – July 3, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 30 – July 3, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📈 US Stocks Rally to Record Highs
Following a volatile first half, U.S. equities surged into record territory in late June on a combination of easing Middle East tensions, cooling inflation data, and the 90-day tariff pause
💵 Dollar Weakens on Fed and Trade Uncertainty
The U.S. dollar fell to a 3½-year low, pressured by persistent speculations over President Trump replacing Fed Chair Powell and extending rate-cut expectations, as well as progress in U.S.-Canada trade talks
🇨🇦 U.S.–Canada Trade Talks Lift Sentiment
Canada temporarily repealed its digital services tax to facilitate talks seeking a broader trade agreement by July 21, boosting U.S. equity futures
🛢️ Oil Prices Stabilize
After spiking on geopolitical fears, oil traders settled between $65–78/bbl amid supply relief following ceasefire developments and easing Middle East risks
⚠️ July Risks Loom
The coming week will spotlight:
July 4 deadline for Trump’s tax bill
Expiry of the tariff pause on July 9
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls on July 3
Each poses potential for increased volatility if outcomes disappoint
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, June 30
9:45 AM ET – Chicago PMI (June): Gauge of Midwestern factory activity
📅 Tuesday, July 1
U.S. markets open, watch trade developments
📅 Wednesday, July 2
Global PMI readings released
📅 Thursday, July 3 (Early close ahead of Independence Day)
8:30 AM ET – Nonfarm Payrolls (June)
8:30 AM ET – Unemployment Rate (June)
8:30 AM ET – Average Hourly Earnings (June)
These labor metrics will be critical for Fed rate outlooking
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #jobs #Fed #oil #trade #technicalanalysis
SPY ATH TARGET 650Trend: Strong bullish continuation. Price just broke above the key 610 level, entering a momentum phase toward the projected 650 target.
Structure: SPY is trading inside a rising channel. The upper bound aligns with the 650 level, suggesting this is the next liquidity zone.
Support Zones:
610: Now a critical support. If it holds, buyers remain in control.
580–560: First unfilled gap — a likely magnet if price dips.
540–530: Second unfilled gap — stronger support on deeper pullback.
500–480: Major demand block — structural bottom of the current rally.
Moving Average (EMA): Price is trading above its EMA, confirming bullish momentum.
Gaps: Two visible gaps remain open below, both likely to act as magnets if bulls lose momentum.
📈 Expected Range:
Above 610 → Target: 650
Below 610 → Watch for gap fills at 580 and 540
What Is The Market Waiting For?Good Morning Trading Fam,
Our stock and crypto markets seem to have stalled. You may be wondering what they are waiting for. Quite simply, the S&P 500 has reached a double-top. That's all. There may be some more pause here for the next week or so. Barring any significant bearish geopolitical or other events, I expect us to move higher. Any FUD at all will send the market back down again. So yes, unfortunately, the next move(s) will be mostly predicated on news. Traders are rather fragile rn. Trade accordingly.
Best,
Stew
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Bouncing Up from Support after NewsSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has bounced up from the $593 support level after recent global news (de-escalation news).
Price action has slowed and consolidated in June 2025, and the S&P500 is still maintaining a price uptrend.
The 50EMA and 20EMA Golden Cross is still active and in progress (since May 2025).
The next stock market earnings season is not for another 3 months. Inflation, interest rate news, global events, government news, corporate news will continue to affect price volatility this summer.
Resistance Levels: $604, $610, $612, $619.
Support Levels: $600, $593, $586, $579.
Monday UpdateSPX and SPY both look like they are trying to decide if the 18ma will hold as support or not, we have to wait for the close. Gold looks like it wants to go higher. Oil and Natural Gas as well. I forgot BTC, I'll do it tomorrow.
Update into the closeSPY is at resistance. OIL looks like a C wave. My feeling is there could be a swift down move on SPX futures overnight. I'm wrong if we open above 602 on SPY tomorrow
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-19: GAP Reversal Counter TrendToday's pattern is a GAP Reversal in Counter Trend mode. I believe this could represent a breakdown in the ES/NQ as the US stock market is closed for the Juneteenth holiday.
Obviously, after the Fed comments yesterday (stating "uncertainty") and with the continued Israel/Iran conflict playing out, it makes sense to me that the US markets would move into a pre-weekend consolidation phase.
Even though the US stock market will be closed, the futures market will likely stay open and will carry some general market sentiment and reactions to news.
Watching Gold/Silver and Bitcoin should be very interesting today. I suspect the markets will continue to consolidate downward today - leading to a potential breakdown seeking support day on Friday.
Buckle up. We'll likely have 3-5+ days of news related to the Israel/Iran conflict and other issues over this weekend. It could be very interesting to see how the global markets move through this news.
Get some.
Happy Juneteenth
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SPY: ASI DIMENTION SHIFT TRADESPY: ASI Dimension Shift Trade
Markets are no longer responding to human logic—they're reacting to macro compression and machine foresight.
This trade captures the inflection point where AI and capital collide.
📌 Watch:
AMEX:SPY holding above 532 = dimension support
Breakdown below 518 = confirmation of SMC exit
VolanX signal: “Shift registered. Volatility node expanding. Defensive alignment required.”
#SPY #VolanX #SMC #AITrading #ASIDimension #MacroBreakout #WaverVanir
SPY At Risk as Geopolitical Tensions Rise Jun 23 — What Monday Holds for Bulls & Bears ⚔️📉
🔍 GEX & Options Sentiment Overview:
From the daily GEX chart:
* Key Gamma Levels:
* 📍Call Walls: 597 → 602 (supply zones), strong resistance.
* 📍Put Walls: 590 → 587 → 572, significant gamma exposure to the downside.
* High Volatility Zone (HVL) at 590 – a trigger level; under this, the market may accelerate downside toward 587 and even 572.
* GEX Summary:
* PUTS: 80.4% dominance
* GEX Net: 🔴 extremely negative
* IVR 23.3, still on the lower side but rising
* Implication: Dealers are hedging to the downside. Gamma exposure creates risk of accelerated selloff below 590.
📊 Technical Analysis – Daily (1D)
* Price: 594.28 (as of Friday close)
* Trend: Daily candle broke prior support; new lower high confirmed.
* Structure:
* Failed to reclaim 597, now acting as local resistance
* Next major demand zone: 587
* Trendline from the recent highs shows lower highs; bearish continuation forming.
* Volume: Bearish candle closed with strong volume — sign of institutional distribution.
⏱️ Intraday TA – 1H Chart
* CHoCH/BOS: Confirmed Break of Structure near 591, then a small rally attempt.
* Micro Supply Box: 596.5–597.5 — liquidity trap if SPY rallies into it.
* Support Zones:
* 593.35 / 594.00 – holding Friday’s bounce.
* If fails, expect sweep to 590 → 587.
* Trendline Pressure: Downward diagonal trendline rejecting every bounce. Unless a full candle close over 599.50, bias remains bearish.
⚠️ Geopolitical Risk – U.S. Bombs Iran
* News: U.S. launched targeted airstrikes on Iranian assets. Market now faces:
* Flight to safety: TLT, Gold, and USD may rise.
* Oil likely spikes — expect XLE and energy stocks to outperform.
* Tech and indexes may open with gap-down risk due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
* SPY Implications:
* Risk-off behavior could amplify sell-off under 590.
* Traders may hedge via VIX calls, gold futures, or SPY puts.
* Watch for VIX spikes or DXY rally as confirmation of sentiment shift.
🧠 Trade Scenarios – Monday June 24
🔻 Bearish Case (High-Probability if Geopolitical Escalates)
* Rejects at 596–597 zone (supply)
* Entry: ~595–596 rejection
* Targets: 590 → 587 → 572 (extreme GEX)
* Stop: 598.5–599.2 above supply box
🔼 Bullish Case (If Market Shakes Off Iran Tension)
* Breaks over 597.5, closes above 599.5 (CHoCH confirmation)
* Entry: 598–599 breakout
* Targets: 602 → 604.5 (2nd Call Wall)
* Stop: 596.5
📌 My Thoughts:
SPY is sitting on a knife’s edge. GEX is screaming downside, and now geopolitical risk adds another layer of pressure. Monday could open with volatility spikes, and if the market gaps down under 590, it might cascade to 587 fast.
Only a reclaim above 599.5 invalidates the bearish structure — and even then, macro headlines might limit upside. Stay nimble. Hedge if holding longs.
🧭 Action Plan for Monday:
* Scalpers: Watch the 596–597 rejection zone — quick puts may work well.
* Swing traders: Use HVL 590 as pivot. Lose it? Target 587.
* Hedgers: VIX calls or GLD may provide cushion.
* Macro watchers: Monitor oil (USO), DXY, and bonds (TLT) for risk-on/off cues.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully.
SPY: Expecting Bullish Continuation! Here is Why:
Balance of buyers and sellers on the SPY pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the buyers, therefore is it only natural that we go long on the pair.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Choppy daySPX closed under the channel trendline which I think bodes well for bears. Gold looks like it's breaking down. Nat Gas looks strong. USOIL looks like it will go higher. BTC is at support.
Low frequency trading (LFT) vs HFTHey fellow tarders and financial mojol,
I've got some insider info that's going to blow your minds! 🤯
According to my top-secret sources (aka my pet parrot who squawks numbers at me), low-frequency trading algorithms have finally figured out the true fair price of the S&P 500. Drumroll, please... It's $550! That's right, folks, all those high-frequency trading bots are currently aiming for this magical number as we speak.
But wait, there's more! The next step in this thrilling financial adventure involves radiowaving all the way down to $400. Yes, you heard it here first. We're talking about some serious next-level trading strategies that involve actual radio waves. Who needs fiber optics when you've got good old-fashioned radio, right?
So, buckle up and get ready for the ride of your life. The market's about to take a trip back to the good old days when $550 was the dream and $400 was just a stone's throw away.
Happy trading, and remember, if your broker gives you weird looks, just tell them you're tuning into the market's frequency! 📡💸
bullish targets smashed ;)spy broke my bullish targets i posted when it was 500, now struggling with a lower high at resistance zone, push down to 572-580 or so is possible before they try to push for all time highs🚀
boost and follow for more 💖
SPY 500 BreadthCurrently see weakness on the breadth of the S&P500. We go back below the 9-EMA and could head back down to the gap-fill area. For now I'm working on my watchlist and looking for potential bounces on leading stocks.
Friday updateSPY likely put in an ABC, I expect lower for most of today. Gold probably higher for now. Oil is just consolidating. NG looks like a buy. BTC i think will breakdown under 100k over the weekend.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 6-20 : Pause Bar PatternToday's Pause Bar pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will slide into a sideways type of PAUSE in price action today. I'm not expecting much to happen and if we do see any breakaway or breakdown trending it will likely be related to news.
While we have options expiration today and a host of other things that could drive the markets, I believe the markets are struggling to find direction right now. Thus, a pause in trading would be somewhat normal after a holiday-shortened trading week.
Gold and Silver are struggling after a brief rally last week. I believe this is fear related to the Israel/Iran conflict. Metals should continue to move higher.
BTCUSD is slightly higher (forgot to cover BTCUSD in the video), but not moving into a breakaway phase.
Overall, everything is very flat in early trading today. It may stay that way with my PAUSE BAR pattern.
Get some.
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SPY: What's Next After the Resistance Retest?
The price action of SPY, shows a significant decline from early February highs, followed by a strong recovery and an established uptrend from mid-April.
Price is currently testing the "Previous Flip Zone" (indicated by the purple shaded area), a level that previously acted as support before the market's sharp decline and has since been retested as resistance.
The "All time High 613" is marked as a major overhead resistance level, representing the peak achieved before the February drawdown.
An "Intermediate Support" zone is identified between 590 and 592, coinciding with the upward-sloping green trendline that has supported the recent rally.
A "Key Area" of support is highlighted further down between 576 and 582, indicating a more substantial demand zone should the intermediate support be breached.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
