90% Probability of Success in SPY? Testing a Simple Strategy!Hey everyone! I want to share a trade idea I'm testing on the SPY ETF.
Based on weekly data since 2000, I've noticed the following pattern: if last week's closing price is higher than the week before and the candle's body (the difference between the opening and closing prices) is larger than usual, there's a 90% chance that the next closing price will be above last week's low.
With that in mind, today I'm planning to sell a put option with a strike price close to last week's low (553.86), expecting the price to stay above that level until the end of this week. If this happens, I'll collect the premium from selling the option.
Why I'm Sharing This:
I'm more interested in sharing the analysis and seeing how it works out rather than discussing profits or losses. I believe this is a good way to generate information for those who also like to explore the market in a more statistical and objective way.
Remember: this is not a trade recommendation. It's just an idea based on historical patterns that I'm testing.
Let's see how it plays out! Has anyone else tried something similar? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
