Lessons From my Losses August 19th 2024 Today the price action again was not ideal. I talk about not getting into trades based on FOMO and overtrading, which I did today. I am a little upset with myself as I was not disciplined. I showed a trade with great confirmation on the 15-minute chart I missed. Let me know what you guys think in the comments and tell me about how your trading went today!
SPY trade ideas
Hello traders and investors! :)Hello traders and investors, SPY will pump to 585$ and dump to 370$. So remember to take profit around 585$, and buy back millions of shares and retire when SPY is at 370$! Genious hedgefund inside insight for free just to help you guys out, have a nice day.
SPY S&P500 ETF W-Shaped RecoveryIf you haven`t bought the previous correction:
Now historically, the SPY S&P500 ETF has demonstrated a consistent pattern where a Relative Strength Index (RSI) at or below 30 triggers buying activity.
This technical indicator, typically viewed as signaling an oversold condition, has reliably attracted investors looking to capitalize on perceived undervaluation.
As a result, these dips have been quickly bought up, suggesting a strong market tendency to rebound from such low RSI levels.
I expect the recovery to be V-shaped or W-shaped, ending the year higher.
Will The SPY Hit 650-700?Just an update on progress in the markets. The dollar has hit my support level already. Because of the quick drop, I expect it to continue to drop even further, though we may get a bit of a bounce first. The Vix is back down and inside of our long-standing sideways channel. And gold has hit its target to the upside.
Plus we'll talk about where the SPY (and U.S. Stock market) is going. That section of the video begins around 07:30 if you want to skip right to the title content of the video. And towards the end of the video, we'll of course discuss where I think Bitcoin is still going before the end of the year and also, where I think it will end up by the end of next year.
These are longer-term targets but they are not solely predicated upon technical analysis. Though the technicals do help support my claims, there is also some fundamental rationale for why I believe the markets remain so volatile, but overall, they will continue their journey upwards.
Expectations for the week in the SPY ETF!!I took a look at the weekly charts of AMEX:SPY to see what we might expect this week. I have some expectations based on statistics that might help you understand what could happen.
Normally, the lows of a week are higher than the lows of the previous week 57.39% of the time. But these chances increase significantly in certain situations, and those conditions are present right now.
-There’s a 74.93% chance that this week's low will be higher if last week's close was higher than the open.
-If last week's close was the highest of the last 5 weeks, this chance goes up to 77.11% .
-And when last week's close was higher than the previous week's close, the probability is 72.79% .
As for the close of the week, 64.62% of the time it tends to be lower than the high of the previous week. But this probability also increases to over 70% under certain conditions, which are also present now.
-There’s a 72.96% chance that this week's close will be lower than the previous week's high if the open from five weeks ago was higher than last week's close.
-And if last week had a range (difference between high and low) greater than 4.13%, the chance is 72.27% .
Disclaimer: These expectations are based on statistics and do not guarantee results. The financial market involves risks, but with this information, you can manage your positions and even build smarter trading systems. Just remember to always make decisions with caution.
Dead Cat or Rally?Same as the QQQ chart, SPY has completed the measured DBW move. Has cleared major pivot fibs, but the gap up stopping at the .782 could be just an exhaustion gap. Scaling into short term hedges 4-5 weeks out at .618 and .382 retrace
S&P bulls amazing coming backLast week, buyers continued to surprise by maintaining the impressive rally that began on Monday, the 5th. Observing the daily chart, we can see that for 10 consecutive days, the price has been setting new highs, never falling below the previous day's low. As of today (Monday, the 19th), the bulls have retraced 80% of the last bearish wave. It's also notable that buying occurred across all major S&P sectors, not just in a few big names.
Here is the current market disposition:
1. The market is in a weekly uptrend, with a new major low officially confirmed at 510 .
2. On the daily chart, we see a beautiful stairstep pattern.
3. The only technical resistance above is July’s high of 565 , but given the rally's momentum, it is likely to be surpassed.
The long-term outlook is unequivocally bullish. The short-term outlook is also bullish, as long as the daily stairstep pattern remains intact.
For short traders, it is advisable to refrain from trying to catch the top. The current momentum is so strong that it could easily break all technical resistances. The only situation where I would consider cautious shorting is at the daily stairstep pattern break.
$SPY Support Gap PatienceLast Thursdays gap up would be a great pullback spot to look for support. It wouldn't pierce the weekly candle at that spot. If it doesn't support that area patience is key. AMEX:SPY
$SPY Tomorrow's Trading Range 8.19.24Tomorrow's Trading Range, y'all... The levels are all here for you and the walkthrough is in the video version... See y'all tomorrow night
$SPY August 19, 2024AMEX:SPY August 19, 2024
15 Minutes.
Friday AMEX:SPY was struggling around 55 levels as expected.
All moving averages are little far off for 15 minutes chart.
Hence, I expect sideways until this is sorted out.
Considering 2 rises
From 531.76 to 555.01
From 548.88 to 555.01
AMEX:SPY in uptrend for the day holding 551 levels.
And if breaks 551 levels i have 548-549 as target being 100 averages approximately.
540 is the important levels now to hold to continue this current uptrend as of now.
We have clearly oscillator divergence and hence i expect a pull back.
Levels to watch this week on SPYMarket is being so wonky, I am just gonna be catious and watch these level and the strength in price action before making any moves. GLTA
Levels to watch this week on SPYMarket is being so wonky, I am just gonna be catious and watch these level and the strength in price action before making any moves. GLTA
Slight downside before bounce or continuing lower!?This is my perspective on the coming days, I feel we consolidate regardless before another push to ATH or continue a downtrend into a recession (seeming unlikely apparently now)
Positioning in SPY: Navigating Volatility in August & SeptemberDisclaimer: The following article is based on a combination of data obtained from TradingView's seasonality indicator and Python code that analyzes seasonality on a 52-week basis over a 10-20 year period. The Kelly method discussed is simply a risk management tactic and should not be interpreted as financial advice. All data and analysis presented are made in good faith and are intended to advocate for data-driven position sizing rather than encouraging or discouraging any specific bullish or bearish positions. Readers should conduct their own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
As we approach the late summer months, it's critical to consider the historical patterns of SPY (the S&P 500 ETF) and position oneself strategically to minimize potential losses while also capturing upside opportunities. August and September have often been challenging months for the market, characterized by heightened volatility and occasional sharp declines. However, completely staying out of the market can result in missed opportunities, especially if the market defies historical trends and rallies. Here’s how to balance these risks with a prudent strategy.
Historical Performance and Seasonality
Historically, SPY tends to experience increased volatility during the late summer, with some of the most significant drops often occurring in these months. From the data, Week 33, for instance, shows a mean return of -0.59% with only 42.86% positive returns. Week 39, even worse, shows an average return of -0.88%, with just 14.29% of the weeks ending in positive territory over the past decade.
The seasonality chart provided further reinforces this pattern, showing consistent negative returns during late August and September in previous years. This suggests a cautious approach is warranted.
Technical Indicators: Avoiding Overbought Conditions
When entering a position in SPY during this volatile period, it is essential to avoid buying when the market is overbought, as indicated by the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and Bollinger Bands (BB).
RSI Considerations: The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements. An RSI above 70 typically signals that an asset is overbought, and a pullback may be imminent. Before entering a position, ensure that the RSI is below 70, preferably closer to 50 or lower, indicating neutral to slightly oversold conditions.
20-Day Bollinger Bands (BB): Bollinger Bands plot standard deviations above and below a moving average. When the price touches or exceeds the upper Bollinger Band, it may indicate that the asset is overbought. Waiting for the price to either move back within the bands or approach the lower band provides a better entry point.
52-Week Bollinger Bands: This is a broader timeframe that can help avoid long-term overbought conditions. Ensure SPY is not trading above the upper 52-week Bollinger Band to avoid entering at potentially unsustainable price levels.
Kelly Method and Raw Data to Consider:
Betting Calendar Using Kelly Method
Kelly Criterion for Position Sizing:
Determine Kelly Fraction:
b = net odds received on the wager
p = probability of winning (positive return)
q = probability of losing (negative return)
For each week, calculate the Kelly ratio based on historical data.
Adjust the bet size each week according to the Kelly ratio, focusing on the following:
High Kelly Ratio (>0.2): Increase exposure to TQQQ.
Moderate Kelly Ratio (0 to 0.2): Hold current positions or add conservatively.
Ticker: SPY, Week: 1
Volatility: 0.0257
Positive Returns: 71.43%
Kelly Ratio: 0.2143
Mean Return: 0.57%
Standard Deviation: 2.57%
Highest Return: 3.46% in 2012
Lowest Return: -5.99% in 2016
Mean Volume: 111390641.79
Highest Volume: 181713040.00 in 2016
Lowest Volume: 68430450.00 in 2020
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57%
Kelly Fraction: 0.6000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 2
Volatility: 0.0143
Positive Returns: 57.14%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0714
Mean Return: 0.46%
Standard Deviation: 1.43%
Highest Return: 2.66% in 2023
Lowest Return: -2.09% in 2016
Mean Volume: 107009064.29
Highest Volume: 229416540.00 in 2016
Lowest Volume: 53189780.00 in 2020
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86%
Kelly Fraction: 0.2500
Ticker: SPY, Week: 3
Volatility: 0.0244
Positive Returns: 50.00%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0000
Mean Return: -0.04%
Standard Deviation: 2.44%
Highest Return: 2.87% in 2019
Lowest Return: -5.88% in 2022
Mean Volume: 128605387.86
Highest Volume: 261616225.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 53442500.00 in 2021
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00%
Kelly Fraction: 0.0000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 4
Volatility: 0.0179
Positive Returns: 50.00%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0000
Mean Return: 0.13%
Standard Deviation: 1.79%
Highest Return: 2.46% in 2023
Lowest Return: -3.35% in 2021
Mean Volume: 129307826.43
Highest Volume: 259350300.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 66549675.00 in 2020
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00%
Kelly Fraction: 0.0000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 5
Volatility: 0.0245
Positive Returns: 57.14%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0714
Mean Return: 0.17%
Standard Deviation: 2.45%
Highest Return: 4.69% in 2021
Lowest Return: -3.93% in 2018
Mean Volume: 129932678.57
Highest Volume: 285445020.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 57701560.00 in 2021
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86%
Kelly Fraction: 0.2500
Ticker: SPY, Week: 6
Volatility: 0.0207
Positive Returns: 64.29%
Kelly Ratio: 0.1429
Mean Return: 0.29%
Standard Deviation: 2.07%
Highest Return: 3.23% in 2020
Lowest Return: -5.00% in 2018
Mean Volume: 132183114.29
Highest Volume: 269419900.00 in 2018
Lowest Volume: 45315460.00 in 2021
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71%
Kelly Fraction: 0.4444
Ticker: SPY, Week: 7
Volatility: 0.0156
Positive Returns: 78.57%
Kelly Ratio: 0.2857
Mean Return: 1.48%
Standard Deviation: 1.56%
Highest Return: 4.37% in 2018
Lowest Return: -1.39% in 2022
Mean Volume: 103561883.93
Highest Volume: 186139025.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 52002260.00 in 2020
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43%
Kelly Fraction: 0.7273
Ticker: SPY, Week: 8
Volatility: 0.0131
Positive Returns: 50.00%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0000
Mean Return: -0.22%
Standard Deviation: 1.31%
Highest Return: 1.62% in 2016
Lowest Return: -2.68% in 2023
Mean Volume: 118643622.50
Highest Volume: 215704675.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 69515225.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00%
Kelly Fraction: 0.0000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 9
Volatility: 0.0356
Positive Returns: 71.43%
Kelly Ratio: 0.2143
Mean Return: -0.24%
Standard Deviation: 3.56%
Highest Return: 3.14% in 2010
Lowest Return: -11.63% in 2020
Mean Volume: 133841187.14
Highest Volume: 248820940.00 in 2020
Lowest Volume: 66189040.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57%
Kelly Fraction: 0.6000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 10
Volatility: 0.0225
Positive Returns: 57.14%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0714
Mean Return: 0.01%
Standard Deviation: 2.25%
Highest Return: 3.60% in 2018
Lowest Return: -4.59% in 2023
Mean Volume: 127773401.43
Highest Volume: 226098020.00 in 2020
Lowest Volume: 74267920.00 in 2017
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86%
Kelly Fraction: 0.2500
Ticker: SPY, Week: 11
Volatility: 0.0327
Positive Returns: 57.14%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0714
Mean Return: 0.04%
Standard Deviation: 3.27%
Highest Return: 6.03% in 2022
Lowest Return: -8.53% in 2020
Mean Volume: 144256381.43
Highest Volume: 312592900.00 in 2020
Lowest Volume: 74846600.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86%
Kelly Fraction: 0.2500
Ticker: SPY, Week: 12
Volatility: 0.0456
Positive Returns: 50.00%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0000
Mean Return: -0.84%
Standard Deviation: 4.56%
Highest Return: 2.75% in 2011
Lowest Return: -14.70% in 2020
Mean Volume: 132598345.71
Highest Volume: 304677680.00 in 2020
Lowest Volume: 76852900.00 in 2022
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00%
Kelly Fraction: 0.0000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 13
Volatility: 0.0295
Positive Returns: 85.71%
Kelly Ratio: 0.3571
Mean Return: 1.62%
Standard Deviation: 2.95%
Highest Return: 10.86% in 2020
Lowest Return: -2.23% in 2015
Mean Volume: 119388588.93
Highest Volume: 268584800.00 in 2020
Lowest Volume: 72870220.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 6.00
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 85.71%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 14.29%
Kelly Fraction: 0.8333
Ticker: SPY, Week: 14
Volatility: 0.0135
Positive Returns: 35.71%
Kelly Ratio: -0.1429
Mean Return: -0.03%
Standard Deviation: 1.35%
Highest Return: 2.69% in 2021
Lowest Return: -1.88% in 2020
Mean Volume: 108302020.36
Highest Volume: 173805360.00 in 2020
Lowest Volume: 58710140.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.56
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 35.71%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 64.29%
Kelly Fraction: -0.8000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 15
Volatility: 0.0349
Positive Returns: 57.14%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0714
Mean Return: 0.97%
Standard Deviation: 3.49%
Highest Return: 11.70% in 2020
Lowest Return: -2.62% in 2014
Mean Volume: 112186273.93
Highest Volume: 183315525.00 in 2020
Lowest Volume: 59426200.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86%
Kelly Fraction: 0.2500
Ticker: SPY, Week: 16
Volatility: 0.0162
Positive Returns: 57.14%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0714
Mean Return: 0.42%
Standard Deviation: 1.62%
Highest Return: 3.10% in 2020
Lowest Return: -2.66% in 2022
Mean Volume: 110959992.14
Highest Volume: 181774480.00 in 2013
Lowest Volume: 57181675.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86%
Kelly Fraction: 0.2500
Ticker: SPY, Week: 17
Volatility: 0.0167
Positive Returns: 57.14%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0714
Mean Return: 0.20%
Standard Deviation: 1.67%
Highest Return: 1.97% in 2011
Lowest Return: -3.20% in 2022
Mean Volume: 105344894.29
Highest Volume: 252752120.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 50297380.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86%
Kelly Fraction: 0.2500
Ticker: SPY, Week: 18
Volatility: 0.0204
Positive Returns: 42.86%
Kelly Ratio: -0.0714
Mean Return: -0.52%
Standard Deviation: 2.04%
Highest Return: 1.97% in 2013
Lowest Return: -6.46% in 2010
Mean Volume: 129276537.14
Highest Volume: 431397980.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 64171980.00 in 2017
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14%
Kelly Fraction: -0.3333
Ticker: SPY, Week: 19
Volatility: 0.0170
Positive Returns: 35.71%
Kelly Ratio: -0.1429
Mean Return: 0.17%
Standard Deviation: 1.70%
Highest Return: 3.38% in 2020
Lowest Return: -2.27% in 2022
Mean Volume: 115531918.57
Highest Volume: 305934080.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 54062740.00 in 2017
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.56
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 35.71%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 64.29%
Kelly Fraction: -0.8000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 20
Volatility: 0.0196
Positive Returns: 35.71%
Kelly Ratio: -0.1429
Mean Return: -0.80%
Standard Deviation: 1.96%
Highest Return: 2.15% in 2013
Lowest Return: -4.40% in 2012
Mean Volume: 131334362.86
Highest Volume: 422473400.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 63334740.00 in 2018
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.56
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 35.71%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 64.29%
Kelly Fraction: -0.8000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 21
Volatility: 0.0192
Positive Returns: 78.57%
Kelly Ratio: 0.2857
Mean Return: 1.20%
Standard Deviation: 1.92%
Highest Return: 6.44% in 2022
Lowest Return: -1.06% in 2019
Mean Volume: 108077414.29
Highest Volume: 322970300.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 53396320.00 in 2017
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43%
Kelly Fraction: 0.7273
Ticker: SPY, Week: 22
Volatility: 0.0183
Positive Returns: 50.00%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0000
Mean Return: -0.36%
Standard Deviation: 1.83%
Highest Return: 2.98% in 2020
Lowest Return: -2.98% in 2012
Mean Volume: 118720716.07
Highest Volume: 285811750.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 54347825.00 in 2021
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00%
Kelly Fraction: 0.0000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 23
Volatility: 0.0265
Positive Returns: 64.29%
Kelly Ratio: 0.1429
Mean Return: 0.88%
Standard Deviation: 2.65%
Highest Return: 4.86% in 2020
Lowest Return: -5.10% in 2022
Mean Volume: 113514415.71
Highest Volume: 284485100.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 48743300.00 in 2021
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71%
Kelly Fraction: 0.4444
Ticker: SPY, Week: 24
Volatility: 0.0234
Positive Returns: 57.14%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0714
Mean Return: -0.56%
Standard Deviation: 2.34%
Highest Return: 2.58% in 2023
Lowest Return: -5.77% in 2022
Mean Volume: 124912205.71
Highest Volume: 242089180.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 53561320.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86%
Kelly Fraction: 0.2500
Ticker: SPY, Week: 25
Volatility: 0.0248
Positive Returns: 50.00%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0000
Mean Return: 0.42%
Standard Deviation: 2.48%
Highest Return: 6.50% in 2022
Lowest Return: -3.49% in 2010
Mean Volume: 123611130.36
Highest Volume: 242877220.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 56641500.00 in 2021
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00%
Kelly Fraction: 0.0000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 26
Volatility: 0.0273
Positive Returns: 42.86%
Kelly Ratio: -0.0714
Mean Return: 0.19%
Standard Deviation: 2.73%
Highest Return: 5.49% in 2011
Lowest Return: -5.34% in 2010
Mean Volume: 119984470.00
Highest Volume: 288655960.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 53019340.00 in 2021
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14%
Kelly Fraction: -0.3333
Ticker: SPY, Week: 27
Volatility: 0.0184
Positive Returns: 78.57%
Kelly Ratio: 0.2857
Mean Return: 1.23%
Standard Deviation: 1.84%
Highest Return: 5.54% in 2010
Lowest Return: -1.18% in 2015
Mean Volume: 101717657.14
Highest Volume: 216636675.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 54238625.00 in 2017
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43%
Kelly Fraction: 0.7273
Ticker: SPY, Week: 28
Volatility: 0.0147
Positive Returns: 64.29%
Kelly Ratio: 0.1429
Mean Return: 0.47%
Standard Deviation: 1.47%
Highest Return: 2.73% in 2013
Lowest Return: -2.01% in 2011
Mean Volume: 101748738.57
Highest Volume: 212156300.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 47308740.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71%
Kelly Fraction: 0.4444
Ticker: SPY, Week: 29
Volatility: 0.0121
Positive Returns: 92.86%
Kelly Ratio: 0.4286
Mean Return: 1.20%
Standard Deviation: 1.21%
Highest Return: 3.50% in 2010
Lowest Return: -1.16% in 2019
Mean Volume: 96302982.86
Highest Volume: 241240100.00 in 2010
Lowest Volume: 43331520.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 13.00
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 92.86%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 7.14%
Kelly Fraction: 0.9231
Ticker: SPY, Week: 30
Volatility: 0.0186
Positive Returns: 50.00%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0000
Mean Return: 0.17%
Standard Deviation: 1.86%
Highest Return: 4.25% in 2022
Lowest Return: -3.95% in 2011
Mean Volume: 94711455.71
Highest Volume: 206386080.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 47178800.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00%
Kelly Fraction: 0.0000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 31
Volatility: 0.0254
Positive Returns: 71.43%
Kelly Ratio: 0.2143
Mean Return: -0.43%
Standard Deviation: 2.54%
Highest Return: 1.93% in 2010
Lowest Return: -7.27% in 2011
Mean Volume: 115657112.86
Highest Volume: 443923300.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 49893820.00 in 2021
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57%
Kelly Fraction: 0.6000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 32
Volatility: 0.0170
Positive Returns: 42.86%
Kelly Ratio: -0.0714
Mean Return: -0.06%
Standard Deviation: 1.70%
Highest Return: 3.28% in 2022
Lowest Return: -3.65% in 2010
Mean Volume: 121728574.29
Highest Volume: 576882260.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 41395180.00 in 2021
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14%
Kelly Fraction: -0.3333
Ticker: SPY, Week: 33
Volatility: 0.0157
Positive Returns: 42.86%
Kelly Ratio: -0.0714
Mean Return: -0.59%
Standard Deviation: 1.57%
Highest Return: 1.28% in 2014
Lowest Return: -4.62% in 2011
Mean Volume: 108393427.14
Highest Volume: 346468900.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 51346820.00 in 2020
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14%
Kelly Fraction: -0.3333
Ticker: SPY, Week: 34
Volatility: 0.0249
Positive Returns: 57.14%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0714
Mean Return: -0.06%
Standard Deviation: 2.49%
Highest Return: 4.71% in 2011
Lowest Return: -5.62% in 2015
Mean Volume: 107049027.14
Highest Volume: 295991640.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 47916700.00 in 2020
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86%
Kelly Fraction: 0.2500
Ticker: SPY, Week: 35
Volatility: 0.0189
Positive Returns: 71.43%
Kelly Ratio: 0.2143
Mean Return: 0.86%
Standard Deviation: 1.89%
Highest Return: 3.77% in 2010
Lowest Return: -3.26% in 2022
Mean Volume: 112448182.86
Highest Volume: 330178540.00 in 2015
Lowest Volume: 48893060.00 in 2020
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57%
Kelly Fraction: 0.6000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 36
Volatility: 0.0202
Positive Returns: 42.86%
Kelly Ratio: -0.0714
Mean Return: -0.28%
Standard Deviation: 2.02%
Highest Return: 3.63% in 2022
Lowest Return: -3.34% in 2015
Mean Volume: 109450437.14
Highest Volume: 281424250.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 62207775.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.75
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 42.86%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 57.14%
Kelly Fraction: -0.3333
Ticker: SPY, Week: 37
Volatility: 0.0237
Positive Returns: 64.29%
Kelly Ratio: 0.1429
Mean Return: 0.59%
Standard Deviation: 2.37%
Highest Return: 5.27% in 2011
Lowest Return: -4.79% in 2022
Mean Volume: 116355140.71
Highest Volume: 301800640.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 53333260.00 in 2018
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71%
Kelly Fraction: 0.4444
Ticker: SPY, Week: 38
Volatility: 0.0249
Positive Returns: 50.00%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0000
Mean Return: -0.60%
Standard Deviation: 2.49%
Highest Return: 2.09% in 2010
Lowest Return: -6.69% in 2011
Mean Volume: 121164171.43
Highest Volume: 319570860.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 50468560.00 in 2017
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00%
Kelly Fraction: 0.0000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 39
Volatility: 0.0093
Positive Returns: 14.29%
Kelly Ratio: -0.3571
Mean Return: -0.88%
Standard Deviation: 0.93%
Highest Return: 0.72% in 2017
Lowest Return: -2.91% in 2022
Mean Volume: 118843855.71
Highest Volume: 289125120.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 61372040.00 in 2018
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.17
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 14.29%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 85.71%
Kelly Fraction: -5.0000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 40
Volatility: 0.0106
Positive Returns: 64.29%
Kelly Ratio: 0.1429
Mean Return: 0.71%
Standard Deviation: 1.06%
Highest Return: 2.34% in 2011
Lowest Return: -1.00% in 2018
Mean Volume: 124806368.57
Highest Volume: 335776200.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 65191120.00 in 2017
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71%
Kelly Fraction: 0.4444
Ticker: SPY, Week: 41
Volatility: 0.0272
Positive Returns: 64.29%
Kelly Ratio: 0.1429
Mean Return: 0.45%
Standard Deviation: 2.72%
Highest Return: 5.83% in 2011
Lowest Return: -4.13% in 2018
Mean Volume: 119517347.14
Highest Volume: 229047120.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 45680060.00 in 2017
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71%
Kelly Fraction: 0.4444
Ticker: SPY, Week: 42
Volatility: 0.0159
Positive Returns: 85.71%
Kelly Ratio: 0.3571
Mean Return: 0.74%
Standard Deviation: 1.59%
Highest Return: 4.63% in 2022
Lowest Return: -2.39% in 2023
Mean Volume: 121403802.86
Highest Volume: 262503400.00 in 2014
Lowest Volume: 49223620.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 6.00
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 85.71%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 14.29%
Kelly Fraction: 0.8333
Ticker: SPY, Week: 43
Volatility: 0.0239
Positive Returns: 64.29%
Kelly Ratio: 0.1429
Mean Return: 0.63%
Standard Deviation: 2.39%
Highest Return: 4.17% in 2014
Lowest Return: -3.95% in 2018
Mean Volume: 114093008.57
Highest Volume: 275998580.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 40530800.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.80
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 64.29%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 35.71%
Kelly Fraction: 0.4444
Ticker: SPY, Week: 44
Volatility: 0.0296
Positive Returns: 71.43%
Kelly Ratio: 0.2143
Mean Return: 0.40%
Standard Deviation: 2.96%
Highest Return: 5.72% in 2023
Lowest Return: -5.64% in 2020
Mean Volume: 115418818.10
Highest Volume: 286001300.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 53817900.00 in 2021
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57%
Kelly Fraction: 0.6000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 45
Volatility: 0.0265
Positive Returns: 71.43%
Kelly Ratio: 0.2143
Mean Return: 1.41%
Standard Deviation: 2.65%
Highest Return: 7.05% in 2020
Lowest Return: -2.39% in 2012
Mean Volume: 110731115.71
Highest Volume: 236163280.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 50666320.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 2.50
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 71.43%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 28.57%
Kelly Fraction: 0.6000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 46
Volatility: 0.0188
Positive Returns: 57.14%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0714
Mean Return: -0.13%
Standard Deviation: 1.88%
Highest Return: 2.30% in 2023
Lowest Return: -3.73% in 2011
Mean Volume: 105487707.14
Highest Volume: 225310040.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 49888620.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86%
Kelly Fraction: 0.2500
Ticker: SPY, Week: 47
Volatility: 0.0241
Positive Returns: 57.14%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0714
Mean Return: 0.04%
Standard Deviation: 2.41%
Highest Return: 3.62% in 2012
Lowest Return: -4.69% in 2011
Mean Volume: 89905267.86
Highest Volume: 192498150.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 47535550.00 in 2017
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86%
Kelly Fraction: 0.2500
Ticker: SPY, Week: 48
Volatility: 0.0226
Positive Returns: 85.71%
Kelly Ratio: 0.3571
Mean Return: 1.52%
Standard Deviation: 2.26%
Highest Return: 7.19% in 2011
Lowest Return: -1.17% in 2021
Mean Volume: 101511530.00
Highest Volume: 226486300.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 41813375.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 6.00
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 85.71%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 14.29%
Kelly Fraction: 0.8333
Ticker: SPY, Week: 49
Volatility: 0.0213
Positive Returns: 78.57%
Kelly Ratio: 0.2857
Mean Return: 0.32%
Standard Deviation: 2.13%
Highest Return: 3.78% in 2021
Lowest Return: -4.39% in 2018
Mean Volume: 106373016.43
Highest Volume: 218376540.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 57685100.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43%
Kelly Fraction: 0.7273
Ticker: SPY, Week: 50
Volatility: 0.0178
Positive Returns: 28.57%
Kelly Ratio: -0.2143
Mean Return: -0.98%
Standard Deviation: 1.78%
Highest Return: 2.38% in 2023
Lowest Return: -3.74% in 2015
Mean Volume: 120513714.29
Highest Volume: 223839060.00 in 2011
Lowest Volume: 56187100.00 in 2020
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 0.40
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 28.57%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 71.43%
Kelly Fraction: -1.5000
Ticker: SPY, Week: 51
Volatility: 0.0263
Positive Returns: 78.57%
Kelly Ratio: 0.2857
Mean Return: 0.80%
Standard Deviation: 2.63%
Highest Return: 3.93% in 2011
Lowest Return: -7.25% in 2018
Mean Volume: 125472662.14
Highest Volume: 241227640.00 in 2014
Lowest Volume: 68201160.00 in 2016
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 3.67
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 78.57%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 21.43%
Kelly Fraction: 0.7273
Ticker: SPY, Week: 52
Volatility: 0.0135
Positive Returns: 57.14%
Kelly Ratio: 0.0714
Mean Return: 0.44%
Standard Deviation: 1.35%
Highest Return: 3.05% in 2018
Lowest Return: -1.94% in 2012
Mean Volume: 81552437.14
Highest Volume: 176291125.00 in 2018
Lowest Volume: 36675000.00 in 2019
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.33
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 57.14%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 42.86%
Kelly Fraction: 0.2500
Ticker: SPY, Week: 53
Volatility: 0.0155
Positive Returns: 50.00%
Kelly Ratio: nan
Mean Return: 0.22%
Standard Deviation: 1.55%
Highest Return: 1.32% in 2020
Lowest Return: -0.87% in 2015
Mean Volume: 69674137.50
Highest Volume: 84184050.00 in 2015
Lowest Volume: 55164225.00 in 2020
Net Odds Received on the Wager: 1.00
Probability of Winning (Positive Return): 50.00%
Probability of Losing (Negative Return): 50.00%
Kelly Fraction: 0.0000
3rd 2024 COMING SUPER MARKET DROP WARNINGJune 28, 2024 / Lagging Span crossed down for third time price, conversion and base; but not enough to cross green cloud for more than 110% from the high-high of 523, keeping the long trend, mimics 2020 and 2022 crashes.
SPY/SPX: Guidance ForwardIts been a hot minute since I have shared my thoughts/analysis.
So it was time for an update!
Leave your questions and comments below, take care!
SPY The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 554.26
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 537.92
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
The S&P 500 has surged 8.5% from the August 5 panic lowThe S&P 500 has surged 8.5% from the August 5 panic low and is now just 2% away from reaching a new all-time high! 🚀 Can the SP:SPX keep this momentum going and break into uncharted territory? #SPX #StockMarket #Investing #MarketRally #Trading
SPY Lovers ! Bullish and Strong but wait... there is a challengeThere's really not much to analyze here. As we can see on the chart, SPY remains strong and in an upward direction.
What I'm expecting: I'm waiting for the price to reach my 565.16 zone as a rejection or liquidity point so that it can regain strength and eventually break through the zone later on.
Other than that, there's not much to analyze—SPY remains strong.
The challenge this week will be reaching new highs, as we have very important economic news coming up, which could bring a lot of volatility.
We'll see what happens this week.
Thank you for supporting my analysis.
SPY: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
SPY
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy SPY
Entry - 554.26
Stop - 565.13
Take - 535.44
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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