SPY Chips and VolatilitySPY Chips and Volatility
Understand the position of chips and the current value of volatility
SPY trade ideas
Weekly Trade Ideas ReviewI'll start doing these videos at the end of each week to go over the 5 ideas I had posted posted for the previous week to see how things ended up playing out. I like the idea of posting the ideas beforehand to drill the point home that I am not making this stuff up after the fact. I think if you follow along with this series, you'll see that not only does TA work, but it works extremely well and some patterns can you give up to a 70% win rate.
You'll see that by planning your trades before each week will make things much easier on you. You won't have to be emotional, because you have a fully structured plan and you know exactly what to do in every scenario. You know when to enter, when to stop out, and when to take profit.
You don't have to decide on the fly while your adrenaline and emotions are running high, you just have to do what your trade plan says to do no matter what. You can't deviate, follow the plan. Risk should be taken care of before you take the trade, you know how much you're going to lose if wrong before you make the trade. What is there to worry about then? Sounds easy, but it is not. Some people say psychology isn't important, I say it is the #1 or #2 most important aspect of trading. You need to take emotions out of the game, a winning strategy will not help you if you can't execute it.
SPY: ReevaluatedEarlier in the week, it appeared that we were preparing for a Wave 3 down. After this sharp V shape recovery, I am changing my stance. Instead of a wave 1 and 2 completion, I'm seeing this as an ABC corrective wave. The movement from Aug. 5 until now is showing a completion of wave 3 of wave 1 of wave 5 complete. I'm expecting a retrace for wave 4 to the 0.382 fib retracement of 541 for completion of wave 4, then a final wave 5 of wave 1 to 560-561. Larger Wave 2 should bring the SPY down to 529-530 if wave 5 of wave 1 completes at 561.
SPY RE-TESTS Year long bull channel See my last post.
Likelihood of this bull channel holding resistance is higher, especially as all the FOMO catchers are jumping in now.
This chart is for a bigger time frame picture on where the market currently stands.
Retail bites the FOMO AGAIN - SPY back to 530After the sell off on 8/5, retail traders are starting to pile back in because all the issues magically just disappeared.
It is actually comical to see how easily the media controls the narrative of the people and the market.
Straight up and down moves are the best times for a reversion to mean trade.
Or at least... we'll find out.
MACD on hourly cross-over, and S&P moves from 510 to 555 in 2 weeks? I like my odds.
We re-test 537 likely in a few weeks.
My mental stop is at 558.
SPY on its way to give up 2024 gains and retest LTSSPY on its way to give up 2024 gains and retest LTS on a higher timeframe as the fear of recession looms. This analysis is for informational purposes only.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 8-16 : Inside BreakawayThe move in the SPY today is very consistent with my Inside Breakaway SPY Cycle Pattern.
Additionally, the move in Gold is exactly what I predicted would happen over two weeks ago. A dual-leg rally up to $2550.
Now, we'll watch Gold rally above $2600 as this second leg appears to have considerable momentum.
As we close out the week, I do suspect the SPY will attempt to create a right-shoulder for an inverted Head-n-Shoulder pattern next week. So, be prepared for the SPY to possibly consolidate and move downward a bit before attempting another rally phase.
My SPY Cycle Patterns tend to agree with this changing cycle phase in the SPY - so there is some consistency related to a right-shoulder setup.
Overall, this has been a tremendous week for traders.
My research has continued to deliver great results for my followers and the big move in Gold has been incredible.
Next week, we'll do it again.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-16 : Gold Rips - Stocks StallThis video highlights why I believe today's Inside Breakaway may come with some surprises.
As Gold rips higher (check out my recent Gold videos) and the SPY really broke higher yesterday with a huge upward GAP and rally, I believe the SPY will stall a bit today and attempt to move higher near the end of the trading day today.
I don't believe the markets go straight up or straight down.
This big Deep-V recovery has run into resistance and I believe an inverted Head-n-Shoulders is likely to setup.
You'll see what I'm talking about in today's video.
What this means for SPY traders is to stay cautious today. Short - Quick trades will be the key to success.
Don't get married to any bigger, longer-term swings in price today.
It is all about getting in and out quickly and efficiently.
Gold, on the other hand, could rally to $2620 or higher over the next 5+ trading days.
Watch the US Dollar and BTCUSD as the Hedge Trade appears to be very active right now.
Get some.
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08/16 SPY ATR Levels and RangeThe ATR on SPY is now sitting at 7.38, VIX and SPY were moving together close to the closing of yesterday, limited views on today since I am my 40 hr office job, but always watching and waiting for price action and volume, orders on the tape and technical setups to make any decisions. Patience.
$SPY August 16, 2024AMEX:SPY August 16, 2024
AMEX:SPY achieved the target 554 being 1.618 extension.
Nor if we take the numbers 493 to 565 to 510 100% extension is around 580 levels.
But the issue is 510 is 78% retracement for the rise 490 to 565.
Hence 566 crossing will be an issue.
AMEX:SPY had 2 days gap up unfilled.
So being strong move I expect resistance around 556 levels today.
We can see oscillator divergence. Hence i will be careful with new longs.
2 Weeks of Recovery - But Seasonality Lurks in Sep/OctMonday - UP
Tuesday - UP
Wednesday - UP
Thursday - UP
SPY has put together 2 weeks with 20+ points from low to high eclipsing the averaging 14/15 point average true range for the week - it really is wild stuff!!!
I try to make some sense of everything today with an inverse cup & handle pattern on the SPY/SPX/ES levels. I dive into September/October seasonality and upcoming news for the US. PMI next week and Jackson Hole. More employment news and PCE before the month ends with NVDA earnings.
CME Fed Watch Tool showing a 76% probability the FED will cut 25 bps September 18 and we will still see more news on employment and inflation come in before the official FOMC meeting.
Actively trading, cautiously bullish, a bit surprised by how motivated this market is to recover. If there's any hesitation, it would make sense technically. I'm not interesting in calling tops/bottoms, I'm just interested in good levels to trade.
Thanks for watching!!!
SPY: WAVE 3SPY is approaching the 0.786 fib retracement of wave 1. For wave 2, the standard is 0.618, but can go much higher. The condition of wave 2 is that it must not exceed wave 1. With today's run-up, we see volume exceptionally low. This should sound the alarm for traders and is showing me warning signs of a very large reversal. I am anticipating the largest drop in a single day that we have seen this year to come within the next few trading days. This drop will begin the start of wave 3 (the largest of the 5 waves) and many stocks that I follow are showing similar setups. All stocks that I have posted on this week are still within their range and I have not changed my thesis on them. META and AMD especially. Be patient for this setup. My target for the completion of Wave 3 is 464 (161.8% of wave 1).
PT1 494, PT2 483
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-15 : Where's The Counter-Trend MoveIn this video, I explain how news or data-driven events can substantially obscure the SPY Cycle Pattern price trends.
My SPY Cycle Patterns are predictions based on Fibonacci & Gann cycles. They attempt to predict typical market price characteristics and trends.
When some outside news, data, or other event hits that changes market dynamics enough to drive price in a stronger upward or downward trend, the SPY Cycle Patterns may invalidate or get skewed behind the momentum of the "event" trend.
With today's price bar, I believe the closing of the European markets (near Noon in NY) and the end of lunch in NY have a much better chance of seeing prices fall back into the counter-trend Carryover pattern I predicted for today.
That means, this afternoon, we may see price roll downward and attempt to move back towards support - just like I would typically expect to see with a counter-trend Carryover pattern.
Let's see what happens.
Get some.
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Squeeze after PPI and CPILast week we predicted a squeeze during the week of PPI and CPI. The TVC:VIX has also a target for weakness. However, the value play on the VIX is diminishing after this week. Oil and gold is in a weird situation. I had originally predicted Oil to outperform Gold over the next 30 cycle creating some divergence. We'll see that divergence plays out more in the coming weeks. If the divergence does happen, it will like throw the rising Japanese Yen off kilter.
The indices remain quite bullish on the higher frame. All macro points to higher end of year as CPi is now under 3, liquidity, jobs and consumption remains acceptably strong.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-15 : Huge Bullish Gap On DataPlease take a minute to watch this video and try to understand why this big bullish price gap is data-related.
Today, the data suggests Retail and Manufacturing are still clicking right along.
We are not seeing any big decline in the US economy, and that means the US Fed will not consider dropping rates as inflation levels seem to be elevated.
This is also part of why I believe the US economy will "decouple" from many global economies over the next 12 to 24+ months.
If you remember, I suggested a VORTEX RALLY would start near the end of July 2024.
Well, guess what is happening now?
The US markets are setting up a BASE for the Vortex Rally. We are not in lift-off mode yet. We still need to be cautious of any potential news event (political or otherwise) ahead of the US POTUS election.
Once we approach or pass the US 2024 election, I think we'll be able to be more aggressive about continuing the Vortex Rally phase.
FYI, I will be flipping to BULLISH tomorrow.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-15 : Counter-Trend CarryoverA Counter-Trend Carryover pattern is a "coasting" of price in an opposite trend direction.
So, for today, I expect the price to stay somewhat within yesterday's range while trending downward.
I don't expect yesterday's lows to be broken/breached - although it could happen.
I believe today will be more like a pause in price before attempting another move higher.
Today's pause may be very mellow in structure/size.
I believe the SPY/QQQ are biased to the upside, so I expect this price pause to stay above recent support levels.
Watch this video to see why I believe the recent upper range of the Gap will act as firm support for an upward price move into next week.
We have to wait for the markets to return to Trending mode.
60% of trading is WAITING for the opportune setups.
Get some.
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$SPY August 15, 2024AMEX:SPY August 15, 2024
60 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY hit the expected target 544 levels +- .
544 -546 is important at the moment.
It is 61.8% retracement for the fall 565 to 510 levels.
It is also around 200 averages in 60 minutes timeframe.
So, for the day taking the last rise from 531.76 to 544.96 holding 538-539 is important.
I will buy around that levels for 544-546 SL 536.
SPY: Breaking Important Resistance Levels. |WEEKLY UPDATE|The SPY is making an excellent recovery move, which could turn into a real bullish reversal if it continues at this pace.
In our last analysis, last week (when the SPY was at $120), we had already identified a change in sentiment, and warned of a recovery in the medium term. Once again, we managed to get the movement right.
In addition. last week we mentioned the gaps that are still open above the price, and yesterday we closed the second one, which was at $539.43. What's more, the SPY is above the 21-day EMA, entering bullish territory again.
So far we don't see a top signal that could reverse the bullish sentiment, but if the price falls so far as to cancel out yesterday's bullish candle, we'll be in trouble.
For now, the situation seems under control, and in the absence of evidence suggesting a bearish reversal, the uptrend will continue, and the next target is at the next resistance at $554.86.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
SPY - Bearish Until Proven OtherwiseMarkets have been on a tear to the downside in the recent weeks after hitting all time highs with a recent sharp pullback on Japan currency news, highlighting the sensitivity in the market today.
After a clear trend has been identified to the downside, the market is leaving some clues behind on where we may see pivot points through the supply / demand zones.
I have my eyes on a short trade at the previous range value area low, where we also have a large gap to fill at the supply zone.
I do believe we are currently bearish, and only bullish if we can reclaim the value area low from previous weeks.
My trade idea is relatively simple here , involving the gaps above and below us.
Short zone at 540 , bringing it down to around 500-505 where we left a large gap from the May pivot low.
Only time will tell...
2H SPY scenario. next fews days up. Hit resistance, head lowerHello folks,
Inflation data looking good, job market weakening. Following good news of last few days. Market is going to head higher slowly until it hit resistance. Expect a drop down from there like previous technical analysis is showing. After that long term seems juicy.
Very short term, caution.
Long term its buy
Have to remember that no one can predict the future. I try to asses the market based on technical and fundamental analysis. None of this should be considered financial advice.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-14 : Today Is A RALLY DayToday is a RALLY day on my SPY Cycle Patterns.
After the recent base/bottom in the SPY and the subsequent reversion to the upside - I expect today's rally to be somewhat muted in size. I'm not expecting a large range rally bar to form today - although it could happen.
The reason I'm not expecting a huge rally bar today is because we've already seen a very strong upward price move - particularly yesterday's Breakaway pattern.
I see the markets right now: they've already moved substantially higher (more than 61% of the recent downtrend) and are likely to stall out a bit before attempting to move higher.
Price never moves in a straight upward or downward trend. There are always pauses, pullbacks, or countertrends along the broader price trend, and traders need to expect them as the broader trend plays out.
Today, I'm expecting the price to attempt to melt upward but, at the same time, reflect a "pause" in the rally phase—essentially, slow down the rally phase a bit.
I do believe the IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) may offer traders a great opportunity. The undervalued sectors have been weaker than the main US Indexes. The Russell may trend broadly higher today in an attempt to play "catch-up" with the other indexes.
Gold may be making another big move higher - possibly starting the second leg upward.
Get some.
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